Jonathan Martinez is favored in the upcoming UFC fight against Jose Aldo, with a strong model backing. Betting predictions show Martinez with a 62.04% ELO and 60.81% logistic regression probability of winning. Bet wisely and consider Martinez for a strategic advantage in this exciting matchup.


In today’s UFC matchup, we delve into a detailed analysis and prediction for the fight between Jonathan Martinez and Jose Aldo. This prediction is based on the UFC betting model developed by Eric, a prominent member of the Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass. This post will provide a comprehensive breakdown of both fighters’ stats, model predictions, and the final fight pick, ensuring you have all the necessary information to make an informed betting decision.

Fighter Stats and Matchup Analysis

Overview of Fighter Competencies

Jonathan Martinez

  • Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 4.64
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 3.76
  • Striking Defense: 58%
  • Takedown Average per 15 minutes: 0.44
  • Takedown Accuracy: 41%
  • Takedown Defense: 69%
  • Submission Average per 15 minutes: 0.1

Jose Aldo

  • Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 3.57
  • Striking Accuracy: 46%
  • Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 3.74
  • Striking Defense: 60%
  • Takedown Average per 15 minutes: 0.6
  • Takedown Accuracy: 54%
  • Takedown Defense: 91%
  • Submission Average per 15 minutes: 0.1

Statistical Comparison and Matchup

The comparison reveals Martinez’s advantage in terms of striking volume, landing more significant strikes per minute. Although Aldo absorbs slightly fewer strikes, his superior takedown defense and higher takedown accuracy might give him a tactical edge in grappling exchanges.

Betting Model Insights: Martinez vs Aldo

UFC Betting Model Predictions

ELO and Logistic Regression Model Outcomes

  • Jonathan Martinez
  • ELO Model Probability: 62.04%
  • Logistic Regression Probability: 60.81%
  • Jose Aldo
  • ELO Model Probability: 37.96%
  • Logistic Regression Probability: 39.19%

Analysis of Model Predictions

The consistency between the ELO and Logistic regression models strongly favors Jonathan Martinez as the likely victor in this encounter. According to the betting model’s criteria, a bet is advisable when both models align and the odds are between 1.50 and 3.0 (-200 to +200 US odds), as is the case here with Martinez’s odds at 1.78 (-128).

Recommended UFC Fight Pick: JONATHAN MARTINEZ to Win

Based on the comprehensive analysis from Eric’s UFC betting model, the recommended pick for this fight is Jonathan Martinez. His striking capability and favorable model predictions make him a solid choice for this matchup.

Conclusion: Smart Betting on Martinez vs Aldo

Utilizing the JONATHAN MARTINEZ vs JOSE ALDO UFC prediction as a guide can enhance your betting strategy, but remember, it’s crucial not to blindly follow any sports picks. Always integrate the latest MMA news, statistical analysis, and comparison shopping for the best UFC betting odds into your strategy. For those interested in elevating their betting game, consider exploring sports betting courses that focus on analytical, model-based approaches to become a long-term winner in sports betting.

Final Notes

Always be mindful of the dynamic nature of sports betting odds and ensure you are accessing the most current data before placing any bets. Good luck, and may your bets be as strategic as they are informed!

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