Italy vs Switzerland Prediction

For the Euro 2024 match between Switzerland and Italy, my betting model projects the following probabilities: Italy has a 44.75% chance of winning (odds of 2.23), Switzerland has a 22.71% chance (odds of 4.40), and there’s a 32.54% chance of a draw (odds of 3.07).

Match Details

Switzerland and Italy face off in the Round of 16 of Euro 2024 on Saturday, June 29, 2024, at the Olympiastadion in Berlin, with kick-off at 8:00 PM CEST.

Team Overview


Switzerland reached the knockout stages as Group A runners-up, remaining unbeaten in their group matches. Key players like Granit Xhaka and Xherdan Shaqiri have been crucial in their journey. The Swiss team, under coach Murat Yakin, is known for its tactical discipline and strong unity.


Italy, led by coach Luciano Spalletti, secured their place in the Round of 16 with a dramatic 98th-minute equalizer against Croatia. Italy’s lineup features experienced stars and young talents like Federico Chiesa and Nicolò Barella. The team’s defense remains robust, complemented by an attacking flair.

Betting Analysis

My Betting Model Projections

Check the soccer betting model here.

  • Switzerland Win Probability: 22.71% (My Odds: 4.40)
  • Draw Probability: 32.54% (My Odds: 3.07)
  • Italy Win Probability: 44.75% (My Odds: 2.23)

Bookmakers vs. My Odds

  • Switzerland Win: Bookmakers offer 3.59, my odds are 4.40
  • Draw: Bookmakers offer 2.91, my odds are 3.07
  • Italy Win: Bookmakers offer 2.47, my odds are 2.23

Value Analysis

  • Switzerland Win: The bookmakers’ odds are less favorable compared to my model, indicating lower value for a Swiss victory.
  • Draw: The draw has a slight negative value according to my model.
  • Italy Win: Italy’s odds present a positive value, with my model suggesting they should be favored more heavily than the bookmakers indicate.
Italy vs Switzerland Prediction

Conclusion for Italy vs Switzerland Prediction

Italy comes into this match as the favorite, with a higher win probability and more favorable betting odds. However, Switzerland’s tactical strength and unity make them a formidable opponent, promising an exciting and closely contested game. Betting on Italy presents a slight value, making them the preferred choice for this Round of 16 clash.

Pick: Italy to Qualify at 1.73

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