To calculate the closing line value in sports betting, divide your taken odds by no-vig closing odds and subtract by 1. A positive number shows, that you beat the line, which is one of the best indicators of successful sports betting.

Closing Line Value Calculator: Two Way (decimal odds)







Two-Way Bet Closing Line Value Calculator (US odds)







Calculate your CLV odds with my Closing Line Value Calculator (decimal, US odds and both two way and three way with explanations)

How to calculate closing line value in sports betting – practice:

  • Taken odds – A
  • Closing odds (your bet) – B
  • Closing odds (of other outcomes) – C
  • Margin – D
  • CLV – closing line value
  • xCLV – closing line value no vig (margin excluded)
  • Fair close odds – E

Formulas:

  • Margin = iferror((1/B+1/C),””)
  • Fair close odds (1/((1/B)/D),””)
  • CLV = iferror((A/B)-1,””)
  • xCLV = iferror((A/E)-1,””)

Calculate Decimal odds and US odds (convert with formulas)

  • A – decimal odds
  • B – US odds

Convert US odds into decimal odds:

  • =IFS(B<100,(abs(100/B))+1,B>100,(B/100)+1,B=100, 2, B=-100, 2)

Convert decimal odds into US odds:

  • =ifs(A>2, ((A-1)*100), A<2, (-100)/(A-1), A=2,”+100″ )

Professional sports bettors talk about closing line value

Closing line value is one of the most important topics in sports betting communities and it needs to be explained how to calculate it. There is a lot of talk about it, many try to calculate it, many understand the importance of it, but it needs to be explained further.

Why closing line value is so important?

When it comes to sports betting and sports bettors, we always ask ourselves does our betting even makes sense. Closing line value gives us a good picture of our results and it is more reliable than ROI or Yield.

The problem is that the whole betting community is focused on hype, a small sample size of bets, and profit. Sometimes yield (ROI) and that’s it.

Why Yield and ROI is not enough

Yield (or ROI) and the profit is usually not enough to make a conclusion about your betting performance. We all know that 97% of all bettors lose in the long run and only a few make a profit and what is even more important, only a few are skilled and beat the market.

Bookmakers who accept sharp bettors have a big sample size of bets

And if we check Twitter, betting portals, monitoring sites, etc… they all win. It looks like a much bigger percentage than only 3%. This is where common sense comes into play.

The only real source that has a big sample size of bets are bookmakers. One of such bookmakers is Pinnacle and they have a huge sample size of bets from real players and they openly say, that this is the most important indicator (yes, even more crucial than profit or yield or ROI).

From the article (How to solve a problem like an efficiency):

“Pinnacle’s Head of Trading Marco Blume has made it clear that a reliable indicator of whether a bettor holds long term profitable expected value – that is to say they are sharp – is whether they can beat the closing line.”

Quick Theory of CLV

how to calculate closing line value
  • The betting market will open (Stage 1), bettors will bet (Stage 2) and it will close with the last minute odds (Stage 3)
  • Bettors will bet and the price (the odds) will start to form from the time of opening till the kickoff
  • The odds just before the game starts will include all the information about the market and because of this, the last price is the most efficient.
  • You can not beat efficient markets once all information is already included in the current odds (price). This happens at closing time, just before the game will start.
  • In other words, if you bet just before the game, you’ll lose in the long run (margins will eat you alive) and because of this, you must compare your taken odds vs closing odds.
  • You should track your taken bets versus closing bets to see if you get a better price than they are at closing time

CLV and xCLV

There are two ways how to calculate the closing line value and most betting sites and bettors calculate only CLV. This is simply comparing your taken odds versus closing odds.

But not many track their taken odds versus pinnacle (or other sharp bookmakers) no-margin (no vig) odds. In very efficient markets like NFL for example you must beat the line (excluding vig).

As you will see, once you start tracking closing line value, having xCLV is much harder than CLV.

But the very first step into the next level of betting is to start tracking your closing line value.

Conclusion

Understanding and utilizing Closing Line Value (CLV) is essential in sports betting for gauging the effectiveness of your betting strategy over time. It’s not just about picking winners but about consistently finding value before the market adjusts. Recognizing the significance of CLV can lead to improved betting decisions and potentially more profitable outcomes in the long run.

Interested in mastering the application of basic statistics for sports wagering? Begin your journey towards proficiency by enrolling in the complimentary betting course available at this link.

FAQs about Closing Line Value:

  1. Can CLV be negative and what does it imply? Yes, a negative CLV indicates that you’re consistently getting worse odds than the closing line, which may suggest a need to refine your betting strategy.
  2. How does CLV relate to betting market efficiency? CLV reflects the efficiency of betting markets. A bettor consistently beating the closing line is effectively finding inefficiencies in the market’s initial odds.
  3. Is CLV relevant for all types of sports betting? CLV is relevant in all types of sports betting, but its impact varies between liquid and soft markets. Liquid markets, like major sports leagues, are more efficient as they attract more informed bettors and large wagers, leading to more accurate closing lines. Soft markets, often in less popular sports or events, are less efficient due to lower betting volume and less information. In these markets, the closing line might not fully reflect all available information, making CLV a slightly different indicator of value compared to highly liquid markets.
  4. How can beginners start using CLV in their betting strategy? Beginners should start by understanding how odds represent implied probabilities and then compare their betting odds to the closing line to calculate CLV. You can find closing lines at oddsportal.
  5. Does focusing on CLV mean I should ignore other aspects of betting? While CLV is important, it should be one part of a holistic betting strategy that includes bankroll management, understanding of the sport, and analysis of betting value.

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