In the thrilling world of college football, AI has emerged as a powerful tool for generating game predictions. The anticipated matchup between Houston and Rice is no exception. With data-driven insights, let’s decode the AI’s projection for this game and discover the potential betting value.

NCAAF Odds & Lines Overview

Houston:

  • Point Spread: -9.5

Rice:

  • Point Spread: +9.5
  • Totals Over Under: 52.5

Calculating Expected Points

On the Offense

Houston’s Offense:

  • Points Per Game (PF/Game): 36.1
  • Relative Expected Points Offense (Relative EXP OFF): 0.79
  • Total Predicted Points: 36.89

Rice’s Offense:

  • Points Per Game (PF/Game): 25.2
  • Relative Expected Points Offense (Relative EXP OFF): 0.79
  • Total Predicted Points: 25.99

On the Defense

Houston’s Defense:

  • Points Allowed Per Game (PA/Game): 32.2
  • Relative Expected Points Defense (Relative EXP DEF): -0.79
  • Total Predicted Points Allowed: 31.41

Rice’s Defense:

  • Points Allowed Per Game (PA/Game): 34.2
  • Relative Expected Points Defense (Relative EXP DEF): -0.79
  • Total Predicted Points Allowed: 33.41

Merging Offensive and Defensive Metrics

By combining the offensive and defensive metrics, we can determine the overall expected points for both teams:

  • Houston’s Expected Points: (36.89 + 33.41) / 2 = 35.15
  • Rice’s Expected Points: (25.99 + 31.41) / 2 = 28.7

Accounting for Home Field Advantage with FPI

Taking into account the adjusted FPI difference of 7.7 points:

  • Houston’s Adjusted Expected Points: 35.15 + (7.7/2) = 39
  • Rice’s Adjusted Expected Points: 28.7 – (7.7/2) = 24.85

The AI’s Final Prediction

  • Houston: 39 points
  • Rice: Approximately 24.9 points

College Football Picks Generated by AI:

If you’re keen on making a bet based on this model, there’s slight value with choosing Houston with a spread of -9.5 and also considering the Over for 52.5.

For those looking to delve deeper into analytical betting and enhance their skills with spreadsheets and models, signing up for a free betting course could be invaluable.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.