Guardians vs White Sox Prediction

In the Guardians vs White Sox Prediction, our MLB betting model gives Cleveland (Ben Lively) a 62.1% win probability against Chicago (Erick Fedde). With superior offense and a stronger bullpen, the Guardians are favored, offering a bold pick despite limited betting value. Always check multiple sportsbooks for the best odds.


As we approach Thursday, May 9, 2024, the excitement around the upcoming game between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox is palpable. The game will feature a thrilling pitching duel between Ben Lively and Erick Fedde. The Guardians vs White Sox Prediction hinges on analyzing advanced statistics and sportsbook odds, so let’s break down the key details to determine the best possible value in this MLB matchup.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Cleveland Guardians (Decimal odds: 1.60 | US odds: -167)
  • Home Team: Chicago White Sox (Decimal odds: 2.30 | US odds: +130)
  • Ballpark: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago

Before diving into the prediction, remember that odds may shift leading up to the game, so always check the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.08
  • SIERA: 3.27
  • xFIP: 3.31
  • K/9: 9.97
  • BB/9: 2.49
  • WHIP: 1.02
  • GB/FB: 0.67
  • xERA: 3.66

Ben Lively’s stats highlight his prowess, with a low ERA of 2.08 and solid SIERA and xFIP metrics. His K/9 rate of nearly 10 shows his ability to dominate hitters, and a low WHIP suggests he’s adept at limiting baserunners.

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Erick Fedde (Chicago White Sox)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.46
  • SIERA: 3.71
  • xFIP: 3.74
  • K/9: 9.46
  • BB/9: 3.23
  • WHIP: 1.18
  • GB/FB: 1.12
  • xERA: 3.66

Erick Fedde, while not as dominant as Lively, remains a competent pitcher with a respectable ERA and K/9 rate. His higher BB/9 and WHIP suggest a vulnerability to walks and baserunners, potentially giving the Guardians an advantage.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Cleveland Guardians Bullpen Rank: 2nd
  • Chicago White Sox Bullpen Rank: 26th

The Guardians’ bullpen is one of the league’s best, while the White Sox struggle significantly in relief pitching. This could be a crucial factor in late innings.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

  • Cleveland Guardians: Overall rank (20), vs LHP (12), vs RHP (22)
  • Chicago White Sox: Overall rank (30), vs LHP (30), vs RHP (29)

Offensively, the White Sox continue to have issues across the board, particularly against right-handed pitchers like Lively. The Guardians’ offense is comparatively stronger, despite their middle-tier rankings.

Guardians vs White Sox Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probabilities

  • Cleveland Guardians (Ben Lively): 62.10% (Projected US odds: -164 | Decimal odds: 1.61)
  • Chicago White Sox (Erick Fedde): 37.90% (Projected US odds: +164 | Decimal odds: 2.64)

The betting model heavily favors the Guardians, projecting a 62.10% win probability.

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Cleveland Guardians
  • Pitcher: Ben Lively
  • Odds: -167
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion: -0.11 (no significant value)
  • Confidence: Opinion

The Guardians’ offensive edge and bullpen superiority, coupled with Ben Lively’s pitching ability, make them the favorite here. While the Kelly Criterion doesn’t suggest high-value betting, a bold opinion leans toward Cleveland.

Conclusion: Guardians vs White Sox Prediction

In the Guardians vs White Sox Prediction, consider the Guardians as a solid choice but never follow any sports picks blindly. Shop for the best MLB betting odds and maximize promotions during the betting season. To bet like a pro, check out sports betting courses or explore my MLB betting model to start making your own winning projections.

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