Guardians vs White Sox Prediction

Our MLB betting model shows a near-even Guardians vs White Sox prediction, giving Cleveland a 50.11% chance and Chicago 49.89%. With Garrett Crochet pitching, there’s a slight value in picking the White Sox at +110. Shop for the best odds and refine your bets analytically with this close matchup.


On Friday, May 10, 2024, the Chicago White Sox will host the Cleveland Guardians at Guaranteed Rate Field in a matchup between Carlos Carrasco and Garrett Crochet. In this Guardians vs White Sox prediction, we’ll analyze the pitchers’ advanced stats, offensive matchups, and bullpen strengths to give you the best insight for your MLB betting strategy.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Friday, May 10, 2024
  • Location: Guaranteed Rate Field, Chicago
  • Odds:
  • Cleveland Guardians: 1.72 (-139)
  • Chicago White Sox: 2.10 (+110)

These odds are subject to change, so always consult different sportsbooks to find the best MLB odds available.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Carlos Carrasco (Cleveland Guardians)

  • Hand: Right-Handed
  • ERA: 5.67
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.93
  • xFIP: 4.91
  • K/9: 7.02
  • BB/9: 4.59
  • WHIP: 1.62
  • GB/FB: 1.31
  • xERA: 5.15

Carlos Carrasco has had a rocky season, with high earned run and walk rates, showing inconsistency on the mound. His SIERA and xFIP both suggest that his current ERA might slightly improve with better command, but he remains susceptible to giving up runs.

Garrett Crochet (Chicago White Sox)

  • Hand: Left-Handed
  • ERA: 5.31
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 2.64
  • xFIP: 2.92
  • K/9: 11.73
  • BB/9: 1.99
  • WHIP: 1.01
  • GB/FB: 0.93
  • xERA: 2.41

Despite a modest ERA, Garrett Crochet’s advanced stats tell a more promising story. His strong strikeout rate (K/9) and low walk rate (BB/9) suggest a higher quality performance. His SIERA and xFIP point to potential improvements in his results, hinting that Crochet may outperform his surface-level numbers.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Cleveland Guardians Bullpen Rank: 3rd
  • Chicago White Sox Bullpen Rank: 26th

The Guardians’ bullpen is among the league’s best, offering a significant advantage over the struggling White Sox bullpen.

Guardians vs White Sox Prediction

Offensive Matchup

Cleveland Guardians

  • Overall Offensive Rank: 30th
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 11th
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 23rd

Despite ranking last overall, the Guardians are significantly stronger against left-handed pitching, which could give them an edge against Garrett Crochet.

Chicago White Sox

  • Overall Offensive Rank: 23rd
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 30th
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 28th

The White Sox have struggled offensively, particularly against left-handed pitching. Facing Carlos Carrasco might not play to their strengths either.

MLB Betting Model Probability

Our MLB betting model sees this matchup as almost evenly matched:

  • Cleveland Guardians: 50.11% (Projected Odds: 2.00)
  • Chicago White Sox: 49.89% (Projected Odds: 2.00)

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our analysis, there is a tiny value in picking the Chicago White Sox:

  • Side: Chicago White Sox
  • Pitcher: Garrett Crochet
  • Odds: +110
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Value: 0.43
  • Confidence Level: Tiny Value

Conclusion: Guardians vs White Sox Prediction

In this Guardians vs White Sox prediction, we recommend a slight lean towards the Chicago White Sox with Garrett Crochet on the mound. However, remember to shop around for the best odds and always use analytics to guide your betting strategies. For more insights and to learn how to bet like a pro, check out our MLB betting courses and in-depth analysis tools.

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