Introduction
Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions. In this post, we will be analyzing the Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins game scheduled for August 29, 2023, at the Target Field. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which has made more than 40 units in just 4 months, beating the closing line more than 70% of the time with high value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of the times with positive CLV of +4.52%.
Betting Odds
The betting odds for the game are set as follows:
- Cleveland Guardians: US odds 156, Decimal odds 2.56
- Minnesota Twins: US odds -167, Decimal odds 1.6
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Team Performance Analysis
Cleveland Guardians Performance
The Cleveland Guardians have played 132 games so far. They have an R/G of 4.06, which ranks them 27th in the league, compared to the league average of 4.6087. With 101 home runs, they rank 31st, well below the league average of 158.47. Their RBI rank is 28 with 501 runs batted in, compared to the league average of 581.87. Despite this, they have performed relatively well in stolen bases, ranking 8th with 109, compared to the league average of 93.27. Their BA is 0.248, ranking 18th, while their OBP is 0.31, ranking 25th. Their SLG is 0.38, ranking 29th, and their OPS is 0.691, ranking 27th. Their OPS+ is 93, which matches the league average of 99.83.
Minnesota Twins Performance
On the other side, the Minnesota Twins have also played 132 games. Their R/G is 4.54, which ranks them 15th in the league. They have hit 185 home runs, ranking 6th, and have 574 RBIs, ranking 15th. However, they rank 25th in stolen bases with 68. Their BA is 0.241, ranking 21st, while their OBP is 0.32, ranking 16th. Their SLG is 0.422, ranking 11th, and their OPS is 0.743, ranking 14th. Their OPS+ is 101, which is slightly above the league average.
Pitchers Performance
For this game, the Cleveland Guardians will start with Gavin Williams on the mound. He has a record of 1 win and 5 losses in 12 games started, with an ERA of 3.52, K/9 of 9.56, BB/9 of 3.66, WHIP of 1.28, xFIP of 4.23, xERA of 4.24, GB/FB of 0.97, and SIERA of 4.27.
On the other side, the Minnesota Twins will start with Pablo Lopez. He has a record of 9 wins and 6 losses in 26 games started, with an ERA of 3.69, K/9 of 10.83, BB/9 of 2.27, WHIP of 1.13, xFIP of 3.4, xERA of 3.14, GB/FB of 1.08, and SIERA of 3.41.
Bullpen Rankings
In terms of bullpen rankings out of 30 teams, the Cleveland Guardians rank 17th, while the Minnesota Twins rank 9th.
MLB Betting Model Prediction
Based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the projected win percentages and odds are as follows:
- Cleveland Guardians: Projected MLB model win% 33.05%, Projected US odds 203, Projected decimal odds 3.03
- Minnesota Twins: Projected MLB model win% 66.95%, Projected US odds -203, Projected decimal odds 1.49
- Projected Over Under – total runs for the full game: 8.25
Therefore, the full game moneyline value is on the Minnesota Twins. However, there is no qualified bet for the first half betting value.
BEST BET: Twins (Pablo Lopez) -167
Additional AI Prediction
The AI prediction, which is independent of my MLB betting model and based on the available stats and compared to sportsbook odds, suggests that the value lies in betting on the Minnesota Twins at -167. The bookies odds are Cleveland Guardians 156, 2.56 and Minnesota Twins -167, 1.6.
Conclusion
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