Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my tailored spreadsheets.

Why Trust This MLB Prediction?

My private MLB betting model has proven its worth over the past months. With gains exceeding 40 units in just a four-month span, it consistently trumps the closing line more than 70% of the time. Moreover, the high-value best MLB bets surpass the line a whopping 90% of the time, showcasing a positive CLV of +4.52%. This isn’t just about figures; it’s about precision and consistency.

Quick Glance at the Betting Odds:

  • Cleveland Guardians: US odds are set at 119, which converts to Decimal odds of 2.19.
  • San Francisco Giants: The favorites, with US odds of -132 and Decimal odds of 1.76.

Game Date: September 12, 2023 Venue: Oracle Park

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Team Insights: Performance Breakdown

Cleveland Guardians Performance Metrics

The Cleveland Guardians have had their challenges this season. Playing 145 games so far:

  • They’ve scored an average of 4.02 runs per game, ranking them at a low 29th compared to the league’s average of around 4.63.
  • With 110 home runs, they’re at 31st in the league, quite behind the league’s average of 175.1.
  • They’ve managed to accumulate 546 RBIs, another metric placing them at 29th.
  • One of their strong suits is stolen bases, with 128 to their name, placing them 7th.
  • Their batting average sits at 0.248, slightly below the league’s average of 0.249.
  • Their OBP (On Base Percentage) at 0.311 is below the league average, ranking them 25th.
  • With an OPS of 0.69, they rank 28th, which is a bit below the league average of 0.736.

San Francisco Giants Performance Metrics

The Giants, in their 144 games, show a different tale:

  • They’ve managed an average of 4.33 runs per game.
  • They’ve hit 158 home runs, placing them 20th in the MLB.
  • They’ve collected 601 RBIs.
  • With only 50 stolen bases, they lag at 31st in the league.
  • Their batting average is 0.24, with an OBP of 0.315.
  • Their OPS stands at 0.707, ranking them 22nd.

The Pitchers: Who’s Taking the Mound?

Cleveland Guardians: Cal Quantrill, a right-hander, will be starting. Over 15 games, he has 2 wins and 6 losses with an ERA of 5.7. His WHIP stands at 1.46, with a K/9 of 5.24.

San Francisco Giants: Sean Manaea, a lefty, has a record of 1 win and 2 losses over 6 games. His ERA is 7.54, and he boasts a K/9 of 11.12.

Bullpen Rankings out of 30 teams:

  • Cleveland Guardians: Positioned at 17th.
  • San Francisco Giants: Holding a stronger position at 8th.

MLB Betting Model Predictions for Full Game:

  • Cleveland Guardians: Projected winning chance of 37.14% with US odds of 169.
  • San Francisco Giants: A higher projected winning chance of 62.85% with US odds of -169.
  • The over/under for total runs for the full game is estimated at 9.54.

Betting Recommendations:

Based on the comprehensive analysis and my MLB betting model’s predictions:

  • For the Full Game moneyline, the San Francisco Giants are the value pick.
  • For First Half Betting, the San Francisco Giants emerge as the value choice once again.

Today’s Best MLB Picks:

  • San Francisco Giants at -132
  • Giants 1st Half at -132

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