Guardians vs Braves Prediction

This Sunday’s MLB showdown, featuring the Guardians vs Braves, leans slightly towards Atlanta with a 55.17% win probability. Yet, our betting model finds value in the underdog, Cleveland Guardians, suggesting a promising pick at +162 odds. Dive into the details before placing your bets!


This Sunday’s MLB matchup between the Cleveland Guardians and the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park promises to deliver excitement and potentially profitable betting opportunities. Today’s Guardians vs Braves prediction explores a contest featuring a pitching duel between Ben Lively for the Guardians and Bryce Elder for the Braves. As the odds favor the home team, this analysis delves into the stats, performance, and probabilities that could influence your betting decisions.

Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Cleveland Guardians
  • Home Team: Atlanta Braves
  • Venue: Truist Park, Atlanta
  • Guardians Odds: +162 (Decimal: 2.62)
  • Braves Odds: -179 (Decimal: 1.56)

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always check the latest MLB odds at multiple sportsbooks.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Ben Lively (Cleveland Guardians)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.38
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 2.46
  • xFIP: 2.63
  • K/9: 11.12
  • BB/9: 0.79
  • WHIP: 0.79
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.43
  • xERA: 2.28

Bryce Elder (Atlanta Braves)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 0.00
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.04
  • xFIP: 3.21
  • K/9: 5.4
  • BB/9: 0.00
  • WHIP: 1.2
  • GB/FB Ratio: 3.00
  • xERA: 4.62


Ben Lively has demonstrated remarkable control and efficiency, evident from his low ERA and WHIP, along with a high strikeout rate. Despite a low groundball-to-flyball ratio, his performance metrics suggest he can suppress runs effectively. On the other hand, Bryce Elder shows a stark contrast with a perfect ERA but less impressive underlying metrics, suggesting potential vulnerabilities despite a solid start to the season.

Team Matchups

Bullpen Strength

  • Cleveland Guardians: Rank 3
  • Atlanta Braves: Rank 6

Offensive Comparison

  • Cleveland Guardians: Overall Rank 6
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: Rank 5
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: Rank 12
  • Atlanta Braves: Overall Rank 2
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: Rank 7
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: Rank 3

The Braves’ offense is potent, particularly against right-handed pitchers, which could challenge Lively. However, the Guardians’ bullpen appears more robust, potentially giving them an edge in later innings.

Guardians vs Braves Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Predicted Outcomes

  • Cleveland Guardians (Ben Lively): 44.83% chance of winning
  • Atlanta Braves (Bryce Elder): 55.17% chance of winning

Projected Odds

  • Guardians: MLB Model Projected US Odds: +123 (Decimal: 2.23)
  • Braves: MLB Model Projected US Odds: -123 (Decimal: 1.81)

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Cleveland Guardians to win
  • Odds: +162
  • Value: 1.08 (Kelly Criterion)
  • Confidence: Good Value

Conclusion: Guardians vs Braves Prediction

This Guardians vs Braves prediction highlights a game where the value lies with the underdog, Cleveland Guardians, despite the Braves’ offensive power. Ben Lively’s current form and the stronger Guardians bullpen could tilt the odds in their favor. Always ensure to shop for the best odds and consider this analysis as a guide alongside your own research and intuition.

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