Welcome to MLB betting model projections and predictions from my private spreadsheets and additionally AI ChatGPT prediction for this game. This prediction is made by my private MLB betting model, which made more than 40 units in just 4 months, beating the closing line more than 70% of time with high value best MLB bets beating the line more than 90% of times with positive CLV of +4.52%.
The betting odds are set for the Cleveland Guardians vs Toronto Blue Jays game on August 27, 2023, at the Rogers Centre.
- Cleveland Guardians: US odds 186, Decimal odds 2.86
- Toronto Blue Jays: US odds -204, Decimal odds 1.49
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Team Performance Analysis
The Cleveland Guardians have played 130 games with a Runs per Game (R/G) of 4, ranking them 28th in the league. They have hit 98 home runs (HR), ranking 31st, and 485 runs batted in (RBI), ranking 30th. Their stolen bases (SB) are at 106, ranking 9th, with a batting average (BA) of 0.248, ranking 19th. The Guardians have an on-base percentage (OBP) of 0.31, ranking 25th, slugging percentage (SLG) of 0.379, ranking 28th, and on-base plus slugging (OPS) of 0.689, ranking 28th. Their OPS+ is 93, ranking 100th in the league.
Toronto Blue Jays
On the other hand, the Toronto Blue Jays have played 130 games with an R/G of 4.45, ranking 18th. They have hit 151 HRs, ranking 19th, and 551 RBIs, ranking 19th. The Blue Jays have 83 SBs, ranking 20th, with a BA of 0.257, ranking 8th. They have an OBP of 0.327, ranking 8th, SLG of 0.415, ranking 15th, and an OPS of 0.742, ranking 15th. The Blue Jays OPS+ is 100, ranking 100th in the league.
Noah Syndergaard will start for the Cleveland Guardians. He has a record of 2 wins and 6 losses in 17 games started, an earned run average (ERA) of 6.42, strikeouts per nine innings (K/9) of 5.77, walks per nine innings (BB/9) of 1.74, a WHIP of 1.4, expected fielding-independent pitching (xFIP) of 5.11, expected earned run average (xERA) of 6.51, ground balls to fly balls (GB/FB) ratio of 0.97, and a Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) of 4.98.
For the Toronto Blue Jays, Yusei Kikuchi will start. He has a record of 9 wins and 4 losses in 25 games started, an ERA of 3.52, K/9 of 9.34, BB/9 of 2.44, a WHIP of 1.23, xFIP of 3.92, xERA of 4.1, GB/FB ratio of 0.98, and a SIERA of 3.93.
The bullpen ranking of the Cleveland Guardians is 18 out of 30 teams, while the Toronto Blue Jays rank 2nd.
MLB Betting Model Prediction
The MLB betting model predicts a win percentage of 27.89% for the Cleveland Guardians with projected US odds of 259 and projected decimal odds of 3.59. The Toronto Blue Jays have a projected win percentage of 72.10% with projected US odds of -258 and projected decimal odds of 1.39. The projected over-under for total runs for the full game is 8.45.
Based on the MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the full game moneyline value is on the Toronto Blue Jays, while the first half betting value is not a qualified bet.
BEST BET: Toronto Blue Jays (Kikuchi) -204
Independent AI Prediction
Considering all the available stats and comparing with the sportsbook odds, the AI prediction diverges from the MLB betting model. Although the Blue Jays have better statistics overall and a higher-ranked starting pitcher, the Guardians have a higher SB ranking and a higher motivation to outperform.
AI Bookies Odds:
- Cleveland Guardians: 186, 2.86
- Toronto Blue Jays: -204, 1.49
The independent AI analysis suggests that while the Blue Jays are favored by the MLB betting model, there is value in a bet on the Cleveland Guardians to outperform expectations. Remember to gamble responsibly and consider all the available information before placing a bet.
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