Guardians vs Astros Prediction

Our MLB betting model forecasts a 58.59% win probability for the Houston Astros over the Cleveland Guardians, with a recommended bet on the Astros at -128 odds. Dive into the full Guardians vs Astros prediction to optimize your strategy with precise stats and insights.


The Guardians vs Astros prediction for Thursday, May 2, 2024, showcases a compelling matchup between Cleveland Guardians, led by left-handed pitcher Logan Allen, and the Houston Astros, with right-handed Spencer Arrighetti on the mound. Held at Minute Maid Park, this game promises a clash of strategies with each team bringing unique strengths to the field. Let’s dive into the detailed sportsbook odds, pitcher analysis, and team comparisons to outline our prediction.

Game Details and Sportsbook Odds

Minute Maid Park – Home of the Houston Astros

  • Date: May 2, 2024
  • Away Team: Cleveland Guardians
  • Decimal Odds: 2.19
  • US Odds: +119
  • Home Team: Houston Astros
  • Decimal Odds: 1.78
  • US Odds: -128

Note: Remember, odds can change. Always check for the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Logan Allen (Cleveland Guardians)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 5.46
  • SIERA: 4.35
  • xFIP: 4.40
  • K/9: 7.47
  • BB/9: 3.16
  • WHIP: 1.40
  • GB/FB: 1.1
  • xERA: 4.37

Spencer Arrighetti (Houston Astros)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 10.97
  • SIERA: 4.1
  • xFIP: 4.18
  • K/9: 12.66
  • BB/9: 5.91
  • WHIP: 2.34
  • GB/FB: 1.0
  • xERA: 4.34

Team Comparisons

Bullpen Strength

  • Cleveland Guardians: Rank 4
  • Houston Astros: Rank 14

Offensive Matchup

  • Overall Offensive Rank
  • Guardians: 12
  • Astros: 4
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers
  • Guardians: 8
  • Astros: 6
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers
  • Guardians: 13
  • Astros: 6
Guardians vs Astros Prediction

MLB Betting Model Predictions

Baseball Betting Model Probability

  • Cleveland Guardians (Logan Allen)
  • Probability: 41.40%
  • Projected US Odds: +142
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 2.42
  • Houston Astros (Spencer Arrighetti)
  • Probability: 58.59%
  • Projected US Odds: -142
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 1.71

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Houston Astros
  • Pitcher: Spencer Arrighetti
  • Odds: -128
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.55
  • Confidence: Solid Value

Conclusion: Making Your Guardians vs Astros Prediction

When making your Guardians vs Astros prediction, consider all facets of the game, from pitching matchups to offensive capabilities. Our analysis points towards a solid value in backing the Houston Astros. As always, ensure you’re shopping for the best odds and take advantage of promotions during the MLB season. If you’re looking to refine your betting skills, consider exploring sports betting courses that utilize analytical models. Remember, never blindly follow any sports picks—use them as a guide to inform your betting strategy.

For more insights and updates on MLB picks, visit our “MLB Picks” page, and consider obtaining our MLB Betting Model from Google Sheets to create your own informed betting projections.

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