My Sports Betting Models
Spreadsheet models I’ve used to price bets since 2004. Run your own numbers. Stop chasing picks.
These are for you if…
- You bet seriously and want to do the math yourself.
- You’re comfortable in Google Sheets on a desktop or laptop.
- You understand value, fair odds and probability.
- You want a tool — not a guru telling you what to bet.
Probably not for you if…
- You want picks — try the AI Betting Assistant instead.
- You only bet from your phone. Spreadsheets aren’t a mobile workflow.
- You want a “set and forget” tool. These need 10–15 minutes of work per slate.
- You’re new to betting. Start with the Ultimate Modern Bettor.
Available now
Each link goes to that model’s page.MLB Betting Model
AvailableMy oldest model. Running since 2004. Daily MLB pricing for sides and totals.
View MLB modelNBA Betting Model
AvailableLineup + minutes based. Re-prices the spread when a starter sits.
View NBA modelWNBA Betting Model
AvailableSame engine as the NBA model, tuned for the WNBA season.
View WNBA modelNHL Betting Model
AvailableGoalie-aware. Lineup inputs. Outputs fair lines for sides and totals.
View NHL modelNFL Betting Model
AvailableWeekly score projections. Built for Sunday-morning line shopping.
View NFL modelSoccer Betting Models
AvailableCross-league pricing — Premier League down to second divisions.
View soccer modelsInside Masterclass only
Bundled with the full course.Esports — CS2 Model
MasterclassMap-by-map pricing for Counter-Strike 2 matches.
See MasterclassNCAAB Model
MasterclassCollege basketball spreads and totals — a different beast than the NBA.
See MasterclassInternational Basketball
MasterclassEuroLeague and other top international leagues.
See MasterclassWhere to start
Ultimate Modern Bettor
$27 · Entry pointStart here if you’ve never used a betting model before. Template + training so you don’t waste your first model on a learning curve.
Get the $27 toolkitMasterclass — All Models
Best valueEvery model on this page — plus the three Masterclass-only ones — plus the full framework behind how I build and use them. Lifetime access.
See Masterclass →Common questions
Do I need to be good with spreadsheets?
You don’t need to be an expert, but you should be comfortable opening a Google Sheet, entering inputs (like a lineup or a starting pitcher), and reading outputs in columns. If staring at a sheet isn’t your idea of a good time, the AI Betting Assistant is the better fit.
Do these work on a phone?
No. These are built in Google Sheets and meant for a desktop or laptop. You’ll be entering lineups, comparing fair lines to market prices, and tracking value. That’s not a mobile workflow.
Are these picks?
No. They’re tools for pricing bets yourself. The model gives you a fair line; you compare it to what the sportsbook is offering and decide whether there’s value. You make the call — not me, not the model.
How often do they get updated?
When the inputs need updating (new season formats, lineup logic, rule changes), I push updates and you get them automatically as a model owner. The MLB model, for example, has been continuously refined since 2004.
One more thing. These are analytical tools — not picks, not guarantees, not “locks”. They’re for bettors who understand value and probability and want to do the math themselves. If that’s not you yet, the Ultimate Modern Bettor is where to start.
