Giants vs Rockies Prediction

In the Giants vs Rockies matchup, our MLB betting model favors the Giants, giving them a 67.03% win probability. With Keaton Winn on the mound and solid bullpen support, San Francisco offers strong value at -179 odds. The Rockies face tougher odds, with just a 32.96% projected win chance.


The Giants vs Rockies prediction features a duel between right-handed pitchers Keaton Winn of the San Francisco Giants and Cal Quantrill of the Colorado Rockies. Scheduled for Thursday, May 9, 2024, at Coors Field, this matchup presents distinct sportsbook odds favoring the Giants. San Francisco is currently at -179 (1.56 in decimal odds), while the Rockies are set at +138 (2.38 in decimal odds). Always be sure to check multiple sportsbooks for the best MLB odds.

Game Analysis

Starting Pitcher Breakdown

Keaton Winn (San Francisco Giants)

Winn brings to the game a respectable profile, sporting a 4.41 ERA, which is supported by advanced metrics. His xERA (expected ERA) of 4.41 matches the traditional ERA, indicating no significant luck factors affecting his performance. Key stats include a solid 3.79 SIERA (Skill-Interactive ERA), a 3.68 xFIP (expected Fielding Independent Pitching), a 7.27 K/9 (strikeouts per 9 innings), and a 3.12 BB/9 (walks per 9 innings). His WHIP (walks plus hits per inning pitched) is an impressive 1.13, showcasing good command.

Cal Quantrill (Colorado Rockies)

Quantrill, pitching for the Rockies, holds a 4.31 ERA, though his underlying metrics suggest potential regression. His xERA of 3.95 is better than his ERA, indicating some misfortune, but other metrics raise concerns. His 4.76 SIERA and 4.64 xFIP are higher, suggesting less effective pitching overall. His 5.9 K/9 is lower than Winn’s, and his BB/9 of 3.18 is slightly higher. A WHIP of 1.29 also reveals more frequent base runners.

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Bullpen Matchup

The bullpen matchup heavily favors San Francisco. The Giants’ relief pitchers rank 5th overall, demonstrating consistent reliability. In contrast, Colorado’s bullpen is ranked 30th, the worst in the league, offering little hope in later innings.

Offensive Matchup

When it comes to offensive production, neither team is currently excelling:

  • San Francisco Giants: Ranked 22nd overall in offense, they fare moderately better against lefties (16th) but still struggle against right-handed pitching (20th).
  • Colorado Rockies: Their offense ranks even lower, at 28th overall, with poor performance against both left-handed (21st) and right-handed pitchers (29th).

Betting Model Projection

The baseball betting model gives the Giants a clear edge in this contest, projecting a 67.03% probability of a win (-203 or 1.49 decimal odds). Meanwhile, the Rockies are given a 32.96% probability of victory (+203 or 3.03 decimal odds). The Giants at -179 provide solid value.

Giants vs Rockies Prediction

Recommended MLB Pick

The model’s calculated value confirms that the Giants on the moneyline at -179 offer a solid betting opportunity, particularly with Winn starting. The model’s Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated value yields an 0.82, indicating strong confidence in this pick.

Conclusion: Giants vs Rockies Prediction

In the Giants vs Rockies prediction, the betting model and analysis strongly lean towards a San Francisco Giants win. However, it’s crucial to shop around for the best MLB betting odds and to utilize bonuses and promotions available during the betting season. Make sure to check out the “MLB Picks” page for final bets and first-half picks or explore the available sports betting courses to learn how to bet like a pro using betting models.

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