Giants vs Pirates Prediction

For the Giants vs Pirates prediction on May 21, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Giants a 64.84% win probability. With Logan Webb on the mound and strong offensive and bullpen support, the Giants are favored. Recommended pick: Giants at -147. Always check for the best odds and promotions.

Looking for the best Giants vs Pirates prediction? On Tuesday, May 21, 2024, the San Francisco Giants face off against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. With Logan Webb pitching for the Giants and Martin Perez for the Pirates, our analysis delves into the key stats and probabilities to guide your betting decisions.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Date: Tuesday, May 21, 2024
Ballpark: PNC Park

TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
San Francisco Giants1.68-147
Pittsburgh Pirates2.15115

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks before placing your bets.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

San Francisco Giants: Logan Webb

Logan Webb, the right-handed pitcher for the Giants, comes into this game with a strong ERA of 3.03. His advanced stats reveal his consistency and efficiency on the mound:

  • SIERA: 3.55
  • xFIP: 3.33
  • K/9: 7.13
  • BB/9: 2.58
  • WHIP: 1.35
  • GB/FB: 3.18
  • xERA: 4.85

Webb’s ability to keep his walk rate low while maintaining a solid strikeout rate makes him a formidable opponent for any lineup.

Pittsburgh Pirates: Martin Perez

Martin Perez, the left-handed pitcher for the Pirates, has had a more challenging season with an ERA of 4.86. His advanced stats show areas where he struggles:

  • SIERA: 4.28
  • xFIP: 4.25
  • K/9: 7.2
  • BB/9: 2.52
  • WHIP: 1.5
  • GB/FB: 1.08
  • xERA: 5.45

Perez’s higher ERA and WHIP indicate that he allows more runners on base and has a harder time escaping jams compared to Webb.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • San Francisco Giants Bullpen Rank: 2
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen Rank: 16

The Giants boast one of the top bullpens in the league, which should provide solid support for Logan Webb. On the other hand, the Pirates’ bullpen ranks much lower, which could spell trouble if the game is close late.

Offensive Matchup

San Francisco Giants

  • Overall Rank: 8
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 8
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 9

The Giants’ offense is well-rounded and effective against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers. This balance makes them a constant threat at the plate.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Overall Rank: 27
  • Rank vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 19
  • Rank vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 30

The Pirates struggle offensively, especially against right-handed pitching, which does not bode well against a pitcher of Webb’s caliber.

Giants vs Pirates Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Based on our MLB betting model, here are the projected probabilities and odds:

TeamProbabilityMLB Model Projected US OddsMLB Model Projected Decimal Odds
San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb)64.84%-1841.54
Pittsburgh Pirates (Martin Perez)35.15%1842.84

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline Pick: San Francisco Giants (Logan Webb) at -147
Confidence Level: Good Value (Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated value: 1.31)

Based on our analysis and the MLB betting model, the value lies with the San Francisco Giants. Logan Webb’s pitching combined with the Giants’ superior bullpen and balanced offensive attack make them the favored pick for this matchup.

Conclusion: Giants vs Pirates Prediction

Use this Giants vs Pirates prediction to guide your betting decisions, but always shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. For further insights and to learn how to bet like a pro using sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses. Never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks and always bet responsibly.

Remember, the key to successful betting is informed analysis and strategy. Good luck!

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