Giants vs Phillies Prediction

Discover expert insights with our Giants vs Phillies Prediction! Our MLB betting model shows the Phillies with a 64.22% chance to win, compared to the Giants at 35.78%. Dive deeper into our analysis to understand why the Phillies might be your best bet for this matchup. Always bet wisely!


In this Giants vs Phillies Prediction, we dive into the highly anticipated matchup between the San Francisco Giants and the Philadelphia Phillies set to take place on Saturday, May 4, 2024, at Citizens Bank Park. With starting pitchers Keaton Winn and Ranger Suarez taking the mound, this game promises to be an exciting battle. The odds favor the Phillies, but let’s break down the numbers to forecast the outcome more accurately.

Game Information

Basic Odds Overview

  • Away Team (Giants): Decimal odds at 2.30, US odds at +130
  • Home Team (Phillies): Decimal odds at 1.61, US odds at -164
MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Keaton Winn (Giants)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.18
  • SIERA: 3.51
  • xFIP: 3.41
  • K/9: 7.41
  • BB/9: 2.65
  • WHIP: 0.97
  • GB/FB Ratio: 2.52
  • xERA: 3.96

Ranger Suarez (Phillies)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 1.32
  • SIERA: 2.37
  • xFIP: 2.37
  • K/9: 8.78
  • BB/9: 1.1
  • WHIP: 0.63
  • GB/FB Ratio: 2.68
  • xERA: 2.01

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Strength

  • Giants Rank: 12th
  • Phillies Rank: 6th

Offensive Capabilities

  • Overall Rank:
  • Giants: 19th
  • Phillies: 10th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers:
  • Giants: 18th
  • Phillies: 10th
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers:
  • Giants: 19th
  • Phillies: 9th
Giants vs Phillies Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probability Analysis

  • Giants (Keaton Winn): 35.78% chance, Projected US odds +179, Decimal odds 2.79
  • Phillies (Ranger Suarez): 64.22% chance, Projected US odds -179, Decimal odds 1.56

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Philadelphia Phillies (Moneyline)
  • Pitcher: Ranger Suarez
  • Odds: -164
  • Confidence Level: Solid value, as indicated by an Adjusted Kelly Criterion value of 0.56

Conclusion: Giants vs Phillies Prediction

In conclusion, the Giants vs Phillies Prediction suggests leaning towards the Philadelphia Phillies as a solid bet, considering both the statistical model and the on-field matchups. Ranger Suarez’s superior performance metrics and the Phillies’ stronger bullpen and offensive rankings give them the edge. Always remember to compare odds across sportsbooks and consider using bonuses and promotions to maximize your betting value. If you’re keen to refine your betting strategies, consider exploring sports betting courses to gain deeper insights into analytical betting methods.

Make sure to double-check odds as they can change and always bet responsibly. For more detailed picks and sports betting insights, check the “MLB Picks” page or access our comprehensive MLB Betting Model on Google Sheets.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.