Giants vs Braves Prediction

Our MLB betting model shows a 54.71% probability for the Braves to win against the Giants. With odds of -121 for the Braves and +160 for the Giants, betting on the Giants offers good value. Stay informed with our detailed Giants vs Braves Prediction and make smarter bets!


When it comes to betting on MLB games, having a detailed analysis is crucial for making informed decisions. This post will provide a comprehensive Giants vs Braves Prediction for the matchup on Tuesday, July 2, 2024, featuring pitchers Hayden Birdsong and Reynaldo Lopez. This analysis includes a breakdown of the starting pitchers, bullpen, and offensive matchups, along with our recommended MLB pick based on our betting model.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

Game Info

  • Date: Tuesday, July 2, 2024
  • Ballpark: Truist Park

Sportsbook Odds

  • San Francisco Giants: 2.60 (Decimal odds), +160 (US odds)
  • Atlanta Braves: 1.50 (Decimal odds), -200 (US odds)

Always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks as they can change frequently.

Starting Pitchers Breakdown

San Francisco Giants: Hayden Birdsong

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 5.79

Advanced Stats:

  • SIERA: 4.65
  • xFIP: 4.8
  • K/9: 9.64
  • BB/9: 5.79
  • WHIP: 1.93
  • GB/FB: 1.33
  • xERA: 4.2

Hayden Birdsong has had a challenging season with a high ERA of 5.79. However, his SIERA of 4.65 suggests he might be somewhat unlucky. His strikeout rate (K/9) is impressive at 9.64, but his high walk rate (BB/9) of 5.79 and WHIP of 1.93 indicate control issues. Birdsong’s xERA of 4.2 hints at potential for improvement if he can lower his walks.

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Atlanta Braves: Reynaldo Lopez

  • Hand: Right Handed
  • ERA: 1.7

Advanced Stats:

  • SIERA: 3.78
  • xFIP: 3.68
  • K/9: 9.19
  • BB/9: 3.06
  • WHIP: 1.11
  • GB/FB: 0.88
  • xERA: 3.98

Reynaldo Lopez has been outstanding with an ERA of 1.7. His SIERA of 3.78 and xFIP of 3.68 indicate his performance is backed by solid underlying metrics. Lopez’s strikeout rate (K/9) of 9.19 and walk rate (BB/9) of 3.06 are strong, and his WHIP of 1.11 shows he limits baserunners effectively. His xERA of 3.98 is also favorable.

Bullpen Matchup

San Francisco Giants

  • Bullpen Rank: 3

The Giants’ bullpen is ranked 3rd in the league, showcasing their depth and reliability in late-game situations.

Atlanta Braves

  • Bullpen Rank: 4

The Braves’ bullpen is also formidable, ranked 4th, which suggests a tight matchup in terms of bullpen strength.

Offensive Matchup

San Francisco Giants

  • Overall Rank: 6
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 1
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 13

The Giants excel against left-handed pitchers, ranked 1st, but are only 13th against right-handed pitchers like Lopez.

Atlanta Braves

  • Overall Rank: 16
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 11
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 21

The Braves struggle more against right-handed pitchers, ranked 21st, which could be a disadvantage against Birdsong.

Giants vs Braves Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

Probability & Projected Odds

  • San Francisco Giants (Hayden Birdsong): 45.29%, +121 (US odds), 2.21 (Decimal odds)
  • Atlanta Braves (Reynaldo Lopez): 54.71%, -121 (US odds), 1.83 (Decimal odds)

Our betting model shows the Braves as slight favorites with a 54.71% probability of winning.

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline Value

  • Pick: San Francisco Giants
  • Pitcher: Hayden Birdsong
  • Odds: +160
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.11
  • Confidence: Good Value

Based on our analysis and the Adjusted Kelly Criterion, betting on the Giants offers good value at +160 odds.

Conclusion: Giants vs Braves Prediction

This Giants vs Braves Prediction highlights the importance of using detailed analysis to inform your bets. While the Braves are favored, the Giants offer good value based on our betting model. Remember to always shop for the best MLB odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. For more insights and betting strategies, check out our MLB picks page and sports betting courses.

In summary, use this Giants vs Braves Prediction to guide your betting decisions, but always do your own research and never blindly follow anyone’s picks. With the right tools and analysis, you can bet like a pro and enhance your chances of success in MLB betting.

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