NHL Predictions & Betting Model Picks for Ice Hockey

Discover Free NHL Betting Model Predictions & Ice Hockey Bets Directly from My Computer

On this page, you’ll find free ice hockey predictions and analysis from NHL. All NHL computer picks and predictions are always selected from my private nhl prediction model.

NHL Free Pick Today

Saturday, March 2, 2024

Carolina 1.68
Winnipeg Jets at Carolina Hurricanes (NHL)

All free NHL picks for tonights games come straight from my private betting models, indicating a value play. However, to understand my private bets, and my way of betting and the selection criteria, join ultimate modern bettor, where you’ll learn my way of betting and how to build your first betting model.

FREE NHL Computer Picks Today & Betting Model Predictions from my Private Betting Spreadsheet – 2/25/2024:

Away Tampa Bay Lightning Jonas Johansson 3.09
6.91
39.00% 2.56 156
Home New Jersey Devils Akira Schmid 3.81 61.00% 1.64 -156
Away Philadelphia Flyers Cal Petersen 2.98
6.32
44.32% 2.26 126
Home Pittsburgh Penguins Alex Nedeljkovic 3.34 55.68% 1.80 -126
Away Detroit Red Wings James Reimer 3.50
6.35
60.35% 1.66 -152
Home Chicago Blackhawks Petr Mrazek 2.85 39.65% 2.52 152
Away New York Rangers Jonathan Quick 3.56
6.78
55.24% 1.81 -123
Home Columbus Blue Jackets Elvis Merzlikins 3.22 44.76% 2.23 123
Away Carolina Hurricanes Spencer Martin 3.36
6.59
52.04% 1.92 -108
Home Buffalo Sabres Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen 3.23 47.96% 2.08 108
Away Arizona Coyotes Connor Ingram 2.63
6.23
34.60% 2.89 189
Home Winnipeg Jets Connor Hellebuyck 3.60 65.40% 1.53 -189
Away Nashville Predators Kevin Lankinen 3.40
6.34
57.25% 1.75 -134
Home Anaheim Ducks Lukas Dostal 2.94 42.75% 2.34 134

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My NHL Betting Model (Sample)

Below you’ll see NHL prediction model and score predictions sample from my private Betting Models created in Google Sheets. This is what my final NHL betting analysis looks like after inputting all the numbers and teams. The ultimate goal is to identify discrepancies between my projected odds and those offered by bookmakers. This discrepancy represents a positive expected value (+EV).

nhl computer picks
Profit

Current Season (overall will be added at the end of the season).

Yield/ROI

Betting efficiency (Profit/total stakes).

CLV/xCLV (Closing line value)

Closing line value tracks taken odds versus closing odds. Learn more

ADJ Profit (1U/Play)

Adjusted profit if the average bet is 1 unit per play.

Projections

NHL betting model projected goals, totals, win% and the odds.

AdjKelly

Adjusted Kelly Criterion number is calculated from our projected win% and bookmakers odds.

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What Are My NHL Predictions Today?

Introduction to My NHL Prediction Betting Model

Predicting the outcomes of NHL games is an exciting and complex challenge. There’s no definitive right or wrong method for forecasting these matches; however, the commitment to thorough research is indispensable. Unlike some bettors who rely solely on comparing lines from sharp and soft bookmakers as their prediction process, I advocate for a more analytical approach. This involves an in-depth analysis of games, players, and teams throughout the season.

I dive deep into NHL game analysis, using my proprietary betting model to derive NHL score predictions and identify the highest value bets. By analyzing team dynamics, starting goalies, and player performance, I convert complex data into winning percentages and odds. Comparing these with bookmakers’ numbers, I pinpoint where the true betting value lies.

The Importance of a Detailed Analysis

During a typical NHL season, each team participates in 82 games, culminating in a total of 1,271 regular-season games. With such a vast amount of data, news, and information available for each game, the task of breaking everything down to make informed predictions can be daunting. It’s crucial to recognize that merely reading news and watching games does not suffice for effective predictions. Instead, utilizing sports betting models, particularly for NHL predictions, has proven to be a more reliable method.

My Approach to NHL Predictions

All my NHL predictions are meticulously calculated using a private NHL betting model developed in Google Sheets. The primary objective of every bet I place is to identify +EV (Expected Value) opportunities. This involves pinpointing discrepancies between my predicted probabilities and the bookmakers’ odds, thereby increasing the likelihood of making profitable bets.

Sharing My Ice Hockey Betting Predictions

On my platform, I share all my free ice hockey betting predictions and picks for the NHL season. These predictions include insights on the Money Line and Totals, allowing you to make informed NHL bets. Each prediction is supported by my NHL betting model spreadsheet, ensuring a solid foundation for my forecasts. I encourage you to check back daily throughout the NHL season to access the best free hockey predictions available.

Puck Line NHL Predictions (Against the Spread)

Understanding the Puck Line

Puck line betting, the NHL’s version of point spread betting, uses a standard line of +1.5 or -1.5, affecting odds rather than the line itself. This strategy opens up value opportunities, whether backing a strong favorite or an underdog in what’s expected to be a tightly contested match.

Making Smarter Bets with My Predictions

My initial predictions and calculated winning percentages are your guide to making smart puck line bets. Opting for +1.5 can be a safer bet for underdogs, offering more room for error, whereas choosing -1.5 on favorites might decrease your win probability but significantly increase potential payouts. My NHL predictions aim to steer you towards smarter, more informed betting decisions.

NHL Predictive Model Free Picks Results:

-86.84 units

NOTE: Qualified bets based on NHL Betting Model are updated at the end of every season

BETTING EXPERIENCE
RECOMMENDED UNIT / BET SIZE
  • Players and teams statistics automaticaly updated in the NHL betting model
  • Lineup based betting model
  • Advanced NHL statistics used in the model
  • Recommended strategy based on the numbers: adjusted kelly units

NHL betting model is the only model with negative results. It is a challenging sport to bet on and we are constantly testing and improving test NHL betting model. Use the numbers as part of your analysis and if you bet, bet very small until the model will start to show good results. We will keep working on it and honestly showing results and progress.

Ice hockey betting model results for the past few years

NHL 2016/2017
+157.12 units
NHL 2017/2018
-66.89 (model)
and -8.62 (gut plays)
NHL 2018/2019
-27.90 units
NHL 2019/2020
97-90, +0.20
Covid stopped the season
NHL 2020/2021
98-116, -32.86

Free NHL Over / Under Predictions

Approach to Over/Under Betting

In my analysis, I focus on the total number of goals scored in a game to offer over/under betting predictions. This involves a detailed examination of team offenses, defenses, historical matchups, and potential game flow, aiming to identify bets with the most value. For example, a high-scoring expectation in a game between two offensively strong teams suggests an ‘over’ bet might be wise.

Over/under nhl predictions are a great way to place a bet on a game that you don’t feel vested in, meaning you don’t have a dog in the fight, and you remain neutral. NHL predictions for over/under are for the combined match goals from each team. 

The over/under is generally in the area of 5.5 or 6.5 goals depending on the specific matchup; the number can increase. These nhl predictions come with heavy research to explain why experts pick a certain side. The analysis will include information on the players, team, critical statistics, and any historical matchups.

NHL Playoff Predictions 2023/24

In predicting NHL playoffs for 2023/24, analyzing team dynamics and potential matchups is key. Teams showing strong performance trends and resilience, like the Colorado Avalanche, are ones to watch as playoff contenders.

NHL Stanley Cup Predictions

When forecasting the Stanley Cup winner, considering playoff performance trends and team resilience is essential. Teams like the Florida Panthers, who show momentum and strategic depth, could be unexpected champions. This approach offers a comprehensive way to navigate NHL betting strategies.

NHL Predictions and How to Bet Hockey

Before you start gathering information on the best NHL bets today or how to start betting on hockey games, it’s helpful first to understand how it all works. What factors go into making a judgment call on games, on the Stanley Cup, during the playoffs, and so on. 

NHL Predictions Today

The best betting sites will give you much-needed insight into every game of all 32 teams during the entire season. This insight will include puck lines, sides, schedule, injuries, totals based on trends, value, and more. There’s plenty of hockey on each night, which makes free expert NHL picks invaluable.

How to Predict NHL Games

NHL Predictions

It’s essential to put the necessary research into predicting an NHL game outcome, though there are numerous methods to choose from. There’s no exact right way on how to bet NHL, but there are multiple factors that you have to acknowledge with consistency to make winning predictions. 

A typical hockey season consists of 82 games, and there is a slew of news, data, and general information that you have to analyze for each one. It takes a lot of time and effort to make yourself feel confident not only in your approach to predicting but in taking the plunge to make a bet. 

Selecting a reputable bookmaker takes some of the guesswork out for you. Experts have tons of experience placing wagers on games and developing systems that produce the top NHL computer picks, NHL bet of the day predictions, and more. 

Other NHL Tips

When making a bet and hockey betting strategy, consider the following, as these factors play into your overall NHL bets.

Injuries

Injuries are a huge part of NHL betting on odds. Players are in and out of the lineup all the time because of the rough nature of the sport. Your NHL picks can quickly change depending on your examination of the way that an injured player impacts the team’s success. 

Referees

Another method to make sound predictions is keeping track of the referees. Many bettors discover an edge to offset the oddsmakers when they note the specific tendencies of officials, particularly concerning penalties. 

Some referees are quick to blow the whistle, and they support a more open brand of hockey that benefits teams that are more finesse, faster, and high scoring. 

Other officials allow the teams to get very physical, so the stronger, bigger teams that follow the dump-and-chase style will have the advantage. Monitoring the refs will go a long way in hockey betting. 

While coaches, players, and teams change yearly, and long-standing trends don’t help, trends based on recent events with a clear explanation are beneficial. Because teams play three to four times a week, the trends you see with specific teams are more telling than, say, a football team that only plays once per week. 

Team trends, such as how well a team plays when they get short rest periods, can help you when you’re trying to make an NHL pick. 

What are NHL Computer Picks?

NHL computer picks are predictions for National Hockey League (NHL) games generated by sophisticated algorithms within a sports betting model in Excel or similar platforms. These models take into account a wide range of data, including team performance statistics, player injuries, historical outcomes, and even weather conditions where applicable. The primary objective of NHL computer picks is to predict the outcome of games with a high degree of accuracy, offering bettors insights that are based on quantifiable data. By analyzing patterns and trends from vast datasets, these computer-generated picks aim to identify value bets and discrepancies in the odds provided by bookmakers, potentially offering a positive expected value (+EV) for informed betting decisions.

How to Bet Hockey Online

The process of hockey betting online is quick and straightforward, thanks to the vast array of markets with competitive odds from the best online sportsbooks. Across online sports betting websites, there are a few primary markets in the money line, NHL Team Prop Bets and Player Prop Bets and spread and totals. 
These markets include point scorers, goal scorers, period winners, team goals, or even guessing the score correctly. Experts will help you select the best bet for the highest chance to win, and many sites even offer a welcome bonus for signing up and placing your first bet.

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