NBA Predictions

NBA picks against the spread and NBA player props bets today

Welcome to the NBA predictions. On this page, you’ll find my best NBA picks against the spread, NBA player props betting tips, and occasionally over-under bets that are selected from my NBA betting model.

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Tuesday, April 5, 2022

Orlando +9
Cleveland Cavaliers at Orlando Magic (NBA)

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NBA Computer Picks

Below you’ll see the NBA betting model and NBA Computer picks in Google Spreadsheets. Note that spreads can change at any time – we publish qualified bets and results at the time we made analysis and projections. Always make an extra analysis before you bet our recommended NBA tips. To maximize long-term profits, we highly recommend signing up for as many reliable sportsbooks as possible and betting on the best NBA odds.

Profit

Current Season (overall will be added at the end of the season).

Yield/ROI

Betting efficiency (Profit/total stakes).

CLV/xCLV (Closing line value)

Closing line value tracks taken odds versus closing odds. Learn more

Avg Play

Average stakes.

Adjusted profit

Profit if 1 unit is average play.

Qualified

Qualified = 5-7 pts difference between my projections and bookmakers (10 for totals)

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What are NBA Predictions?

NBA Predictions are NBA tips from our NBA betting model, which calculates projections. The best NBA bets of the day are always the highest value bets based on our NBA betting model. Our NBA betting model is projecting point spreads and totals. If there is enough big difference between our projected numbers (5-7 for spreads and 10 for totals), this is a qualifying bet.

NBA Betting Model Results:

+18.86 units

NOTE: Qualified bets based on NBA Betting Model are updated at the end of every season

BETTING EXPERIENCE
RECOMMENDED UNIT / BET SIZE
  • Spreads, totals and option for props
  • Lineup based betting model
  • Advanced NBA statistics used in the model
  • Recommended strategy based on the numbers: Bet more with bigger spread diff

In 2019 I have created an NBA model because a simple international team-based basketball betting model is not good enough for a sharper NBA market. We included all lineups with every single player and the lineups are updated daily. Based on this, the model project the lines for NBA games.

NBA betting model results for the past few years

NBA 2019/2020
+5.40 units
Covid stopped the season
NBA 2020/2021
+13.46

NBA Computer Picks and How to Bet NBA Basketball

Making the best NBA computer picks requires understanding how computerized basketball predictions work and how they inform your bets. 

Instead of relying on gut feelings or biased opinions about betting NBA games, take advantage of NBA betting picks made by a computer. 

How Do Computers Make Daily NBA Picks?

Computers don’t feel emotions, and they excel at crunching numbers. So, by modeling each matchup, a computer can make NBA score predictions. This modeling technique is especially useful for anyone who enjoys over/under betting, as it can inform them about which NBA betting picks to make. 

It’s still up to the individual to decide which wagers to make and what bets could be the most profitable. But rather than examining stat sheets all day or listening to some talking head on TV or the radio, consider turning to a computer running thousands of simulated games to make the best NBA bets today. 

How Do NBA Predictions Today Earn Money?

You need to do more than make some random NBA score predictions to get the edge over the top sportsbooks. Typically, you’ll see NBA computer picks available for the three major markets of the NBA betting model: Totals, Spread, and Moneyline. To understand those terms and all the ins and outs of NBA gambling, you may want to brush up on the basics of sports betting

We’ll also give you a quick look at different kinds of bets a little later on. 

But, whatever line you’re looking at, a computer can help level the playing field between bettors and the sportsbooks by making detailed NBA score predictions based on all the data available. Accurately predicting the points, rebounds, assists, steals, and other players’ stats inform the total score prediction. You can then compare the computer’s expected outcome to the Moneyline spread and total points bets for each game. 

You can adjust your wager to maximize your potential profit when you see a significant discrepancy. You just need to know how to bet NBA games to stack the odds in your favor. You can also use spreadsheets to analyze the potential earnings of a set of bets, helping you identify the NBA betting picks that are most likely to make you money. 

Where Do I Go to Bet on NBA Score Predictions?

The explosion of online gaming has seen sports wagering grow in popularity. Making NBA predictions in 2022 isn’t just something you do on a barstool with your friends anymore.

Instead, casual fans and diehard bettors alike are turning to online sportsbooks to wager on games. The competition is so stiff that many of the best sportsbooks even offer welcome bonuses to first-timers making NBA betting picks. If you take maximum advantage of the statistical modeling done through computer predictions, NBA betting becomes less emotional and more black and white. 

NBA Computer Picks and Probabilities

A computer deals in numbers. When it spits out the results of its modeling, you see a list of probabilities. Therefore, one of the most popular NBA computer picks for bettors are the total point predictions for each game. 

After analyzing the current statistics on record, a computer crunches the numbers to determine the likelihood of many aspects of the game that contribute to the final score. For instance, a computer might predict that LeBron scores 40 in tonight’s matchup. But it might also see that since this is the fourth game in a week, he tends to not defend as well and lets his opponent score way more points than usual. 

So, since LeBron is going to score a lot, and he’s highly likely to slack off on defense all night, the total scoring will be higher than otherwise predicted. When the computer models a high probability that the score exceeds the total points line, a good bet is staring you in the face. Some sportsbooks even take bets on individual stats during games, offering you another opportunity to leverage the computer’s predictions against the books. 

Using that statistical analysis and number crunching will reveal probabilities. When they are significantly different from the Moneyline, totals, or over/under, you can pounce. 

Basic Terms to Know

To help you get started, here’s a quick breakdown of some standard gambling terms. This way, even if you’re a beginner eligible for one of the best sportsbook bonuses, you can make bets like a pro. 

Moneyline

Moneyline gambling is the easiest to understand. All you are picking is the winner of the game. 

Totals

Betting on totals just means that you’re wagering on what the total score will be, typically by “taking the over” (predicting the total will exceed the line) or the under (predicting the total will be less than the line). Don’t forget it’s the combined total of both teams’ scoring! 


This can be hard to predict, as the pace of the game is a massive factor in how high the total scoring gets. 

Spread

Betting against the spread is difficult. The spread is the predicted difference between the final scores of each team. So, if the Knicks are favored to win by nine, the spread might be shown as “Knicks -9.”

Wrap Up

Now that you’re prepared with the facts about NBA computer picks and how they can work for you, you can make some good wagers. And with lots of sportsbooks ready to take your action and plenty of games to wager on, don’t waste time! 

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