Free Underdog NBA Picks Against The Spread

100% Free Underdog NBA Expert picks exclusively from my private NBA betting model

Welcome to the Free Underdog NBA Picks & Best Bets. On this page, you’ll find my expert NBA picks tonight, NBA player props betting tips, and occasionally over-under bets that are selected from my NBA betting model.

Best Underdog NBA Picks Today

Monday, April 1, 2024

Bulls -2
Atlanta Hawks vs Chicago Bulls (NBA)

Free NBA underdog picks against the spread shared is a result of my betting models’ predictions, showcasing potential value. For detailed projections, how I select my private bets, and betting analysis, explore my course or take a look at my YouTube channel where I talk about the betting process and predicted odds.

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NBA Betting Model

My NBA model uses 3 ways to guess spreads and totals by looking at player stats and daily NBA teams. I aim to find where my numbers are different from the bookmaker’s numbers – 5 points difference for NBA spread bets and 10 points for NBA Over/Under bets. But I focus mostly on free NBA expert picks. Not totals. Instead of using the Kelly method for spread/total sports, I look at the difference between my numbers and the bookmaker’s numbers to decide how much to bet.

Profit

Current Season (overall will be added at the end of the season).

Yield/ROI

Betting efficiency (Profit/total stakes).

CLV/xCLV (Closing line value)

Closing line value tracks taken odds versus closing odds. Learn more

Avg Play

Average stakes.

Adjusted profit

Profit if 1 unit is average play.

Qualified

Qualified = 5-7 pts difference between my projections and bookmakers (10 for totals)

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What are NBA Picks and Predictions?

NBA picks are expert suggestions or predictions about the outcomes of NBA games. They’re based on stats, player performance, and other factors. When someone offers their NBA picks, they’re sharing who they believe will win a game or cover a certain spread.

What is the NBA and Its Appeal Among Bettors?

The NBA, or National Basketball Association, is the premier professional basketball league in the U.S. Its high-paced games and superstar athletes have made it a favorite among sports fans and bettors alike. The unpredictable nature of the games provides bettors with both excitement and opportunities.

NBA Betting Model Results:

+18.86 units

NOTE: Qualified bets based on NBA Betting Model are updated at the end of every season

BETTING EXPERIENCE
RECOMMENDED UNIT / BET SIZE
  • Spreads, totals and option for props
  • Lineup based betting model
  • Advanced NBA statistics used in the model
  • Recommended strategy based on the numbers: Bet more with bigger spread diff

In 2019 I have created an NBA model because a simple international team-based basketball betting model is not good enough for a sharper NBA market. We included all lineups with every single player and the lineups are updated daily. Based on this, the model project the lines for NBA games.

NBA betting model results for the past few years

NBA Picks 2019/2020
+5.40 units
Covid stopped the season
NBA Picks 2020/2021
+13.46

How to Bet on NBA: A Comprehensive Guide

  1. Choose a Reputable Sportsbook: Start by selecting a trusted betting platform. Not all sportsbooks are created equal. Look for those that are reliable, have good reviews, offer competitive odds, and offer good sign up bonuses if you start. This will not only give you peace of mind but can also impact your potential returns.
  2. Deep Dive into Research: Before jumping into any bet, arm yourself with knowledge.
    • Team Dynamics: Study the current form of the teams. Are they on a winning streak or have they been underperforming lately?
    • Player Status: Player injuries or suspensions can significantly alter a game’s outcome. It’s not just about who’s out, but who’s in, and how they’re performing.
    • Head-to-Head History: Some teams have a history of outperforming certain opponents, regardless of their current form.
  3. Understand the Concept of +EV (Expected Value): Always seek positive expected value in your bets. In simple terms, this means looking for situations where you believe the odds provided by the sportsbook don’t accurately reflect the real probabilities.
    • Example: Let’s say you’ve analyzed an upcoming game and believe the Lakers should be priced at +3. However, the sportsbook has them at +7. This disparity means there’s value (a +EV situation) in betting on the Lakers with that spread.
  4. Diversify Your Betting Types: Don’t just stick to one type of bet. Diversifying can give you more opportunities to find value. Whether it’s Moneyline, Over/Under, Spread, or Player Prop Bets, each offers a unique way to leverage your NBA knowledge.
  5. Place Your Bet with Confidence: After all the research, analysis, and finding value, confidently place your bet. However, it’s essential to bet responsibly. Set a budget, stick to it, and never chase losses.
  6. Continue Learning: The NBA landscape is ever-changing with team strategies, player transfers, and other factors. Regularly update your knowledge and be willing to adapt to these changes.

Popular NBA Betting Options

The NBA offers a wide variety of betting choices. Here are some of the most common bets fans and bettors place:

  • Moneyline: This is a straightforward bet. You simply choose which team you believe will win the game. The odds might favor one team over another, but higher payouts are often tied to underdog teams should they secure a win.
  • Spread (or Point Spread): This isn’t just about picking the winning team, but by how much they’ll win or lose. If Team A has a spread of -5, they need to win by more than 5 points for bets on them to pay out. Conversely, Team B with a spread of +5 can lose the game by up to 4 points, and bets on them would still win.
  • Over/Under (Total Points): Here, you’re betting on the combined score of both teams. Bookmakers set a total, like 210.5, and bettors guess whether the final combined score will be over or under that number.
  • Player Prop Bets: These are wagers related to individual player performance. Instead of betting on the game’s outcome, you’re betting on stats. For instance, will Player X score more than 25 points in a game? Or will Player Y make over 5 assists? It’s a way to focus on star performances, irrespective of the game’s final result.

Each type of bet offers a unique challenge and excitement. Whether you’re placing a bet on a team or an individual player, it’s crucial to do your research and understand the bet thoroughly.

Tips to Bet on the NBA

  1. Stay Updated with Lineups: The NBA is a dynamic league with team lineups that can shift often, either due to injuries, coaching strategies, or player rotations. Ensure you’re up-to-date with the latest team news before placing your bet.
  2. Don’t Always Bet on Favorites: While it might be tempting to always back the top teams, upsets are a regular occurrence in the NBA. Sometimes the odds for underdogs offer better value, especially if they’re in good form or have a favorable matchup.
  3. Dive into Match Histories: How two teams have performed against each other in the past can offer invaluable insights. Look for patterns or consistent outcomes that might hint at a future result.
  4. Keep Tabs on the NBA Schedule: Fatigue plays a significant role in a team’s performance. Teams on a back-to-back game, especially when traveling, may not perform at their peak. Conversely, a well-rested team might have the edge over a tired opponent.
  5. Seize the Early Odds (Closing Line Value): Often, the earliest odds provided by sportsbooks offer the most value. As more information becomes available and more bets are placed, these odds adjust. Betting early can sometimes give you an advantage over waiting.
  6. Expand Your Knowledge with Player Stats: A team is only as good as its players. Delve deep into player statistics to understand who’s hot, who’s not, and who might just be the game-changer in the upcoming match.
  7. Monitor Public Opinion: Sometimes, public sentiment can sway odds, not necessarily because of team performance but due to popularity. This can create betting value in certain situations where the odds don’t reflect the actual probability of an outcome.
  8. Stay Disciplined with Your Bankroll: It’s not just about picking winners but managing your money wisely. Set a budget, adhere to it, and avoid the temptation of chasing losses or getting overconfident with wins.
  9. Engage with the NBA Community: Join forums, follow experts, and engage in discussions. The collective wisdom and shared insights can introduce you to new strategies or perspectives you hadn’t considered.
  10. Always Learn and Adapt: The NBA landscape and betting market are constantly evolving. Stay flexible, be willing to learn from your mistakes, and adjust your strategies accordingly.

What Are NBA Predictions?

NBA predictions are informed guesses about the outcomes of NBA games. My predictions are not random; they’re based on detailed statistics and a personal NBA betting model I’ve refined over the years. If you want to see how my model predicts today’s games, click here to check out today’s NBA predictions.

NBA Computer Picks and Probabilities

A computer deals in numbers. When it spits out the results of its modeling, you see a list of probabilities. Therefore, one of the most popular prediction nba picks for bettors are the total point predictions for each game. 

After analyzing the current statistics on record, a computer crunches the numbers to determine the likelihood of many aspects of the game that contribute to the final score. For instance, a computer might predict that LeBron scores 40 in tonight’s matchup. But it might also see that since this is the fourth game in a week, he tends to not defend as well and lets his opponent score way more points than usual. 

So, since LeBron is going to score a lot, and he’s highly likely to slack off on defense all night, the total scoring will be higher than otherwise predicted. When the computer models a high probability that the score exceeds the total points line, a good bet is staring you in the face. Some sportsbooks even take bets on individual stats during games, offering you another opportunity to leverage the computer’s predictions against the books. 

Using that statistical analysis and number crunching will reveal probabilities. When they are significantly different from the Moneyline, totals, or over/under, you can pounce. 

What are NBA Computer Picks?

In the realm of sports betting, the ever-evolving technology has ushered in a new age of predictions: NBA Computer Picks. But what exactly are they? Let’s dive deep.

Definition:
NBA Computer Picks are game predictions made using advanced algorithms and mathematical models. These predictions are based on vast amounts of data, from player statistics to team performance, and even external factors like game venue and travel schedules.

How Do They Work?

  1. Data Collection: Before making a prediction, the software first gathers vast amounts of data. This could include player performance metrics, team histories, win-loss records, and more.
  2. Algorithm Processing: This data is then fed into a mathematical model or algorithm. These algorithms have been created by experts to interpret data in a way that can predict possible game outcomes.
  3. Output: Once processed, the model will produce a prediction for the game. This could be a point spread, a moneyline, or an over/under prediction.

Why Use Computer Picks?

  1. Eliminate Human Bias: Unlike human predictors, computer models don’t have favorite teams or players. They base their predictions purely on the numbers.
  2. Large Data Sets: While a human might overlook or forget some statistics, computers can process vast amounts of information rapidly.
  3. Consistency: Algorithms consistently apply the same logic for every game, ensuring uniformity in predictions.

Points to Consider:

  1. Not Infallible: Despite their advanced nature, NBA Computer Picks are not always 100% accurate. No prediction method is.
  2. Over-reliance: While they can be a great tool, it’s crucial not to rely solely on computer NBA picks. It’s always a good idea to combine these with other research methods for a well-rounded approach.
  3. External Factors: Some things might not always be reflected in the data, such as a player’s mental state or internal team dynamics, which can influence game outcomes.

In conclusion, NBA Computer Picks are a tool in a bettor’s arsenal, offering data-driven insights that can guide more informed betting decisions. However, like all tools, they should be used wisely and in conjunction with other research methods.

My Personal Approach: NBA Betting Model in Google Spreadsheet

When it comes to betting on the NBA, everyone has their unique strategies and systems. Over time, I’ve honed a method that’s proved highly effective for me, centered around an NBA betting model I’ve created in a Google Spreadsheet.

How My Model Works:

  1. Gathering the Data: At the core of my model are critical data points. I focus heavily on team lineups and individual player statistics. This ensures that the model’s foundation is rooted in up-to-date and accurate information.
  2. Estimating Outcomes: Once the data is in place, my model goes to work. It uses the numbers to estimate both spreads (how much one team might beat another by) and totals (the combined score of both teams at the end of the game).
  3. Identifying Discrepancies: After these estimates are made, I compare them against what the bookmakers are offering. What I’m looking for is a significant difference or discrepancy. If, for instance, my model suggests the Lakers should be at +5, but the bookmaker has them at +8, there’s a potential value to be had.

Why This Model?

  1. Flexibility: Google Spreadsheet allows me to quickly adjust and adapt my model. If new data comes in or if I notice a pattern, tweaks can be made on the fly.
  2. Transparency: With everything laid out in a spreadsheet, it’s transparent. I can trace back decisions, see where I went right (or wrong), and continuously refine the model.
  3. Focused Approach: By emphasizing team lineups and player stats, my model remains specialized. I believe in depth over breadth, ensuring I understand specific areas in detail rather than spreading too thin.

In essence, my NBA betting model in Google Spreadsheet is a culmination of meticulous data gathering, analysis, and continuous learning. When there’s enough discrepancy between my model’s predictions and the bookmakers’ odds, it signals a potential good bet, offering a strategic edge in the ever-competitive world of NBA betting.

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