MLB Predictions

Check our free baseball betting picks and MLB betting model predictions

Welcome to the MLB Predictions. On this page, you’ll see MLB picks and daily MLB computer picks, that are always selected from my private baseball betting model.

MLB Prediction Today

Monday, May 16, 2022

Milwaukee (Peralta) 1.83
Atlanta (Anderson) at Milwaukee (Peralta) (MLB)

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MLB Betting Model

Below you’ll see an example of my daily MLB betting model predictions in Google Spreadsheets (learn more). Note that odds can change at any time – I’ll publish free MLB picks and private results at the time we made analysis and projections. Always make an extra analysis and optimize your own units based on your sportsbook’s pricing. To maximize long-term profits, we highly recommend signing up for as many reliable sportsbooks as possible and betting on the best MLB odds.

Profit

Current Season (overall will be added at the end of the season).

Yield/ROI

Betting efficiency (Profit/total stakes).

CLV/xCLV (Closing line value)

Closing line value tracks taken odds versus closing odds. Learn more

BTL (Beating the line percentage)

How many times the closing line was smaller than taken.

Projections

MLB betting model projected win%, odds, and totals.

Bookmaker

Bookmakers MLB odds. US odds and decimal odds.

Value report

Value bets are based on our kelly formula and predefined criteria.

1st5 innings

Projections for 1st half MLB betting.

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What are our best MLB predictions?

Our MLB Predictions are the highest value & qualified bets based on our MLB betting model. First, we calculate our winning percentages, where we take into account different data about the pitchers, bullpen, lineups, etc… Then we estimate probabilities, compare with bookmakers’ odds, and look for discrepancies and mispriced opportunities. Based on our criteria (adjusted kelly criterium) a bet is qualified or not.

MLB Betting Model Results:

+63.94 units

NOTE: Qualified bets based on MLB Betting Model are updated at the end of every season

BETTING EXPERIENCE
RECOMMENDED UNIT / BET SIZE
  • Thousands of bets wit overall profit
  • CLV (Started tracking in 2018): +1.88% / Beat the line: 64% (Biggest value plays: CLV: +3.48%, BTL: 73.39%
  • The model calculates probabilities and MLB odds
  • Strategy based on the numbers: adjusted kelly units

Baseball betting successfully for 15+ years. Since 2016 picks are publicly available and downloadable MLB betting models & spreadsheets for members.

MLB betting results for the past few years

MLB 2016
+40.67 units
MLB 2017
+56.20
model plays
MLB 2018
+3.83 units
CLV: +1.92%, BTL: 64%
MLB 2019
+12.50 units
CLV: +1.64%, BTL: 63.12%, Best Value Plays CLV: 3.33%, BTL: 75%
MLB 2020
+15.20 units
CLV: +1.65%, BTL: 77.78%
MLB 2021
-64.46
CLV: +2.82, xCLV: +0.25%

What are MLB Picks?

MLB picks are baseball predictions made by experts or calculated with algorithms to help you determine how to bet your money on the game. Most sports have a myriad of ways you can wage money on the outcomes, but baseball takes it to another level. Every minute aspect of the game is an opportunity to make money and brag to your friends. 

While many loyal fans bet on the side of their local team and their beloved players, some bet for pure profit and MLB free picks are one of the ways to do this. 

Baseball predictions have been around for decades, with baseball veterans using their wisdom to guess what will happen. But the baseball betting world has advanced beyond this, now taking into account MLB picks computers to make as well. 

How To Get Into Baseball Betting

You can get into baseball gambling right here and place bets based on our free picks! The world of MLB picks and baseball betting can be intimidating and overwhelming to a newcomer, but once you know, you know. In this article, you’ll learn how to bet baseball and win.

Keep reading for a crash course in MLB picks so you can turn your love of the game into money in your pocket. These baseball tips will help you make watching your favorite team a lucrative activity. 

Why Baseball?

Some people that don’t understand the grace and nuances of the game, like to say baseball is a ‘slow sport’. But when it comes to betting, it’s a minefield of pitches and runs that you can bet on individually. 

Baseball is a highly mathematical sport with many intricate moments you can bet on. From the number of fastballs thrown to the number of errors, there are millions of ways to wage money on America’s favorite pastime. 

If you have a firm understanding of the game, it is one of the best sports to bet on because there are many opportunities to make money. Not only are there plenty of opportunities to place a bet in each game, but there are so many games in a regular season compared to other popular sports. 

Types of Bets

To get you started with the best MLB bets to place, here’s a breakdown of common types of bets you will hear or read about when exploring the online world of baseball betting and MLB predictions 2022. There are many other kinds of MLB bets, but these five are the most popular jumping-off points to MLB bet picks and how to bet on baseball. 

Moneyline

A money line bet is the most basic wager in baseball betting. A bettor bets on the winner of the game.

Run Line

Run Line betting is similar to spread betting in any other sport. Because of relatively low-scoring games, the point spreads are set usually at +1.5 and -1.5. It allows bettors to place bets whether the favorite will beat the underdog by a certain margin.

Parlay

A parlay bet, that originated from pirate lingo and wagering activities, is when the better must place bets for multiple teams on one betting slip. These are sometimes very successful but can also be a significant loss. 

Parlay bets are a larger risk but also a bigger reward. If you understand underdog droughts and the big favorites in the league, you can sometimes place a successful parlay. These intense bets can not only make you a nice chunk of change, but they make watching multiple games immensely more exciting. Parlay betting takes baseball betting to a whole new and exciting level. 

Playoff Predictions

Once October hits, baseball betting heats up. People want to place more bets during this time for one of two reasons. Either they care more about playoffs and want to bet their money on meaningful and exciting games. Or they are hardcore betters that are already placing bets on football or the NBA and may as well get some MLB picks while they’re there. 

Since more of the public is placing bets, there is a larger opportunity to make big money, but it’s crucial to refer to expert and algorithm baseball predictions before placing wagers. When it’s playoff time, betting focuses more on the pitchers and the bullpen. Most predictions and wagers are based on the pitchers’ statistics. 

Run Totals

You don’t always have to pick a winner to make money. You can place bets on the total number of runs scored in a game. Or how many hits the game has in total. 

Run total bets are excellent for loyal fans that don’t want to bet against their team. But they also don’t want to lose money betting with their heart instead of their head. 

MLB Computer Picks Vs Expert Picks

If you’ve ever seen Moneyball, this is essentially the big debate in the movie. Some people like to follow the advice and baseball predictions of those with a plethora of experience in the industry. 

Others like to trust the math behind the prediction calculators that use algorithms to crunch a massive amount of sports data. The difference here is gut intuition and human sense versus cold hard data. 

A wise baseball enthusiast may see something in a young rookie they find promising or may get a bad feeling about an upcoming game. No science can back these predictions, but many humans find comfort in these kinds of predictions and trust the experts. 

The prediction calculators use algorithms that focus on probability and past trends. Some of these calculators factor in things like weather and umpires, but most do not as this becomes too complicated. 

In the end, we can’t say which is better as neither is guaranteed. The best way we found to bet MLB and this is something most sharp bettors do are sports betting models.

More MLB Betting Tips

  1. Avoid Favorites

So your team is doing incredible this season and are the favorite to take the world series? That’s awesome, but don’t place your bets on them. Everyone will bet the same way and lessen the opportunity to make a lot of money.

If you bet for fun, place your bets in secret, and you can still root for your team emphatically, but at least you’ll get some cash at the end of the game if they lose! It’s always tempting to bet on the team blowing everyone else out of the water and delivering wins consistently. But this is an easy trap sports betters fall into and is, quite honestly, a rookie mistake. 

If you bet professionally, avoid blindly betting both favorites and underdogs. The only way to win in the long-term is betting on the value. How to find value in sports betting is explained in the free course.

  1. Bet Against the Public

If you want to be successful in baseball betting, don’t follow the crowd. Many people bet like sheep and go with what everyone else is doing, afraid to stray from the pack. Following the public is a mistake that you should not make. Betting against the public can be scary, and you feel like a silly outlier, but this is the best way to place bets that will pay off. 

When you bet along with the public, even if you win, it’s likely to be a small payout since you didn’t take a big chance. 

  1. Check the Weather

Mother Nature may clue you into how many home runs will be in a game or how high the ball will fly. There is evidence that the wind and altitude play a huge role in how the game goes. A strong wind can turn a flyball into a home run, and still air can stifle a home run into a foul ball. 

When there is a strong wind, expect more runs in a game, which is very helpful when placing runs total bets. 

  1. Watch the Umpires

Everyone wants to pretend that umpires and referees don’t have a massive impact on the game’s outcome, but unfortunately, they are humans and do influence many aspects of the game. 

Especially knowing the umpire behind the plate can help you gauge the number of strikes that will be called, depending on how tight their strike zone is. Some umpires also give into crowd pressure, siding with the home team usually. While others get fired up by the crowd’s rage, siding with away teams. 

The human element of umpiring can’t be helped, but it could help you make some money!

Why I like to bet baseball?

Baseball is my favorite sport to bet and there are a couple of reasons for that. Since I bet with the numbers, there is no other sport that has such big data sample size.

Baseball is all about statistics and sports betting analytics, where we have in one season 2430 regular-season games. Every team plays 162 games per year, plus at the end of the season, we have a couple of more playoff games. This gives us a lot of opportunities to bet every single day. We can pick up to 15 games every single day during baseball season. No other sport has so many opportunities during the season.

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