Free MLB Picks

Best MLB Bets Backed by My Personal Baseball Betting Model

Welcome to the Free MLB Picks For Today. On this page, you’ll see my private MLB picks for today, which are always backed by numbers and carefully selected from my private MLB betting model.

Best MLB Bet Today

Thursday, September 29, 2022

Rangers F5 -103
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners (MLB)

All Today’s MLB predictions, bets and record :

YTD: [307-260, +26.21 units, Yield: +3.58%, CLV: +2.58%, BTL: 74.14%].

Yesterday  4-2, +3.12 units. Today’s betting card:

  •  TEX F5 1.97 (1.75 units)
  • SFG 1.48 (1 unit)

Note: starting pitchers are not listed. First five innings money line bets are +0, if F5 mlb picks against the spread are not specified otherwise with asian handicap. I use decimal odds.

Game Pitcher Predicted Win %
Kansas City Royals Jon Heasley 46.42%
Detroit Tigers Eduardo Rodriguez 53.58%
Chicago White Sox Lucas Giolito 49.03%
Minnesota Twins AVG 50.96%
Baltimore Orioles AVG 39.10%
Boston Red Sox Nathan Eovaldi 60.90%
Philadelphia Phillies Ranger Suarez 58.89%
Chicago Cubs Javier Assad 41.10%
Tampa Bay Rays Jeffrey Springs 53.64%
Cleveland Guardians Cal Quantrill 46.36%
Miami Marlins Braxton Garrett 42.45%
Milwaukee Brewers Eric Lauer 57.55%
Oakland Athletics Cole Irvin 31.08%
Los Angeles Angels Shohei Ohtani 68.92%
Texas Rangers Jon Gray 50.17%
Seattle Mariners Marco Gonzales 49.83%
Los Angeles Dodgers AVG 51.24%
San Diego Padres AVG 48.75%
Colorado Rockies Ryan Feltner 28.73%
San Francisco Giants Carlos Rodon 71.27%

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MLB Predictions

Picks and predictions are always based on my private baseball betting model, where I generate my own baseball odds and probabilities independently from online sports betting bookmakers. Then I compare my estimated odds with bookmakers’ odds. If the difference between my projected MLB odds and bookmakers’ odds is big enough, this is potentially a good MLB bet for that day. Below you’ll see an example of my daily MLB baseball analysis in spreadsheets (learn more).

Profit

Current Season (overall will be added at the end of the season).

Yield/ROI

Betting efficiency (Profit/total stakes).

CLV/xCLV (Closing line value)

Closing line value tracks taken odds versus closing odds. Learn more

BTL (Beating the line percentage)

How many times the closing line was smaller than taken.

Projections

MLB betting model projected win%, odds, and totals.

Bookmaker

Bookmakers MLB odds. US odds and decimal odds.

Value report

Value bets are based on our kelly formula and predefined criteria.

1st5 innings

Projections for 1st half betting.

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MLB Betting Model Results:

+98.00 units

NOTE: Qualified best bets based on Predictive Model are updated at the end of every season

BETTING EXPERIENCE
RECOMMENDED UNIT / BET SIZE
  • Thousands of bets with overall profit
  • CLV (Started tracking in 2018): +1.88% / Beat the line: 64% (Biggest value plays: CLV: +3.48%, BTL: 73.39%
  • The model calculates probabilities and MLB odds
  • Strategy based on the numbers: adjusted kelly units

Baseball betting successfully for 15+ years. Since 2016 my mlb picks are publicly available.

Free baseball picks results for the past few years

MLB 2016
+40.67 units
MLB 2017
+56.20
model plays
MLB 2018
+3.83 units
CLV: +1.92%, BTL: 64%
MLB 2019
+12.50 units
CLV: +1.64%, BTL: 63.12%, Best Value Plays CLV: 3.33%, BTL: 75%
MLB 2020
+15.20 units
CLV: +1.65%, BTL: 77.78%
MLB 2022
+34.06
In progress, will be updated

What are Free MLB Picks?

Free MLB picks are baseball predictions made by experts, MLB handicappeers or calculated with algorithms to help you determine how to bet your money on the game. Most sports have a myriad of ways you can wage money on the outcomes, but baseball takes it to another level. Every minute aspect of the game is an opportunity to make money and even brag to your friends if you bet for fun. 

While many loyal fans bet on the side of their local team and their beloved players, some bet for pure profit, and selecting only the best MLB picks from all games is one of the ways to do this. Selecting the right sportsbook with good betting lines and then paying the right price is crucial.

Baseball predictions have been around for decades, with baseball veterans using their wisdom to guess what will happen. But the baseball betting world has advanced beyond this, now taking into account MLB computer picks to make as well. 

Why Free MLB Picks?

The internet changed the whole online sports betting world. Thousands of sports handicappers sell their MLB picks every single day, promoting every single wager as a bets bet.

Many of these touts don’t have any betting knowledge or advantage against online sportsbooks. At the same time gamblers think they will win big with paid MLB picks, but they simply can not correctly pick and identify if these so-called “best bets” are profitable or not. Selling and following MLB picks became a huge business.

Blindly following MLB bets doesn’t work

Nobody can follow any sports handicapper whole season long and at the same time make a bet on every single MLB game for the best price.

Because if a sports handicapper is successful sports bettor, he will make his best bets early to beat the closing line. Following such MLB picks in all MLB games is practically not possible. If you follow MLB picks and if you are late, you’ll not get the best odds. And this is very important.

Not only that gamblers’ dream of a big win is quickly destroyed, many of them end with a gambling problem.

My every single best bet is completely free

When I created this website, my goal was to teach people how to become successful sports bettors and how to make their own best bets.

So they know how to use sports betting models, algorithms, computer picks and of course that they don’t make basic mistakes like parlay bets.

But at the same time I had to show my best bets publicly. For more than 15 years I analyse all MLB games until World Series. I don’t like to bet on MLB futures, despite I think there is some value in future bets.

But most of the time I make money line bets (game outright) and point spread bets in first 5 innings. Sometimes run line and over under bets too.

If you look for other sports, you can check more free picks here.

How To Start Betting Like Professionals

To become a long-term winning baseball handicapper, you must learn sports betting basics first. You can start with our free betting guide.

You can get into baseball gambling right here and place bets based on our free MLB predictions! The world of MLB picks and baseball betting can be intimidating and overwhelming to a newcomer, but once you know, you know. In this article, you’ll learn how to bet baseball and win.

Keep reading and take our free course, so you can turn your love of the game in your pocket. These baseball tips will help you make watching your favorite team a lucrative activity and get into action. 

I addition read this article to increase chances of finding +ev bets in every single matchup.

Why Baseball?

Some people that don’t understand the grace and nuances of the game, like to say baseball game is a ‘slow sport’. But when it comes to betting, it’s a minefield of pitches and runs that you can bet on individually. 

Baseball game is a highly mathematical sport with many intricate moments you can bet on. From the number of fastballs thrown to the number of errors, there are millions of ways to wage cash on America’s favorite pastime. 

More than 2430 MLB games in regular season

If you have a firm understanding of the game, it is one of the best sports to bet on because there are many opportunities to make money. Not only are there plenty of opportunities to place a bet in each game, but there are so many games in a regular season compared to other popular sports. 

There are 2430 games in one MLB season, where every game is an opportunity for sports bettors. We should not forget about MLB playoffs, which is another opportunity to making MLB bets.

Baseball season is active when all other major leagues are inactive and many pro gamblers bet on MLB during the summer. Sportsbooks offer bigger limits and great welcome bonuses too.

If you are serious about sports betting, MLB betting is definitely a market to take a deeper look at.

Types of Bets

To get you started with the MLB picks today, here’s a breakdown of common types of bets you will hear or read about when exploring the online world of baseball betting and MLB predictions 2022. There are many other kinds of MLB bets, but these seven are the most popular jumping-off points to MLB bet picks and how to bet on baseball. 

Moneyline

A money line bet is the most basic wager in baseball betting. A bettor bets on the winner of the game.

Run Line

Run Line betting is similar to spread betting in any other sport. Because of relatively low-scoring games, the point spreads are set usually at +1.5 and -1.5. It allows bettors to place bets on whether the favorite will beat the underdog by a certain margin. Run line betting on underdogs will increase your chances of winning a single bet and such win can be attractive to some bettors.

Parlay

A parlay bet, that originated from pirate lingo and wagering activities, is when the better must place bets for multiple teams on one betting slip. These are sometimes very successful but can also be a significant loss. 

Parlay bets are a larger risk but also a bigger reward. If you understand underdog droughts and the big favorites in the league, you can sometimes place a successful parlay. These intense bets can not only make you a nice chunk of change, but they make watching multiple games immensely more exciting. Parlay betting takes baseball betting to a whole new and exciting level. 

MLB Playoff Predictions

Once October hits, baseball betting heats up. People want to place more bets during MLB postseason for one of two reasons. Either they care more about playoffs and want to bet their money on meaningful and exciting games. Or they are hardcore betters that are already placing bets on football or the NBA and may as well get some sports picks while they’re there. 

Since more of the public is placing bets, there is a larger opportunity to make big money, but it’s crucial to refer to expert and algorithm baseball predictions before placing wagers. When it’s playoff time, betting focuses more on the pitchers and the bullpen. Most predictions and wagers are based on the pitchers’ statistics. 

Run Totals

You don’t always have to pick a winner to make money. You can place bets on the total number of runs scored in a game. Or how many hits the game has in total. 

Run total bets are excellent for loyal fans that don’t want to bet against their team. But they also don’t want to lose money betting with their heart instead of their head. 

MLB prop bets

Proposition bets or prop bets are special bets, where you can bet on very specific outcomes in a single game. For example, you can bet on whether a hitter will hit more or less runs. You can bet on how many strikeouts will pitcher get and much more.

All star break

All star break is one small break in this long season and represent another opportunity for baseball bettors to bet on MLB games before the trade deadline. This a game between American League and National League.

When these two teams played in 2002 without a win and 14 runs scored (final score: 7-7) and where starting pitchers ran out, MLB decided to give the meaning to the win in this game.

From the next year a win in this game decides home field advantage for the upcoming World Series. If American league team is a better team, from this league the team has the home field advantage in World Series. While in many other sports All star break game is more for fans and for entertainment purposes only, here starting pitchers do their best and bring their best bullpens alter in the game.

In this game you can bet on a win, on run line, final score, player props, over under, and more.

MLB Computer Picks Vs MLB Expert Picks

If you’ve ever seen Moneyball, this is essentially the big debate in the movie. Some people like to follow the advice and baseball predictions of those with a plethora of experience in the industry. 

Others like to trust the math behind the prediction calculators that use algorithms to crunch a massive amount of sports data. The difference here is gut intuition and human sense versus cold hard data. 

A wise baseball enthusiast may see something in a young rookie they find promising or may get a bad feeling about an upcoming game. No science can back these predictions, but many humans find comfort in these kinds of predictions and trust the experts. 

The prediction calculators use algorithms that focus on probability and past trends. Some of these calculators factor in things like weather and umpires, but most do not as this becomes too complicated. 

In the end, we can’t say which is better for you as neither is guaranteed. Both, computer picks and expert MLB picks are not perfect. The best way I found to bet MLB and this is something most sharp bettors do is sports betting models.

More MLB Betting Tips

  1. Avoid blindly betting on both – Favorites and Underdogs

So your team is doing incredible this season and are the favorite to win the world series? That’s awesome, but don’t place your bets on them. Everyone will bet the same way and lessen the opportunity to make a lot of money.

If you bet for fun, place your bets in secret, and you can still root for your team emphatically, but at least you’ll get some cash at the end of the game if they lose! It’s always tempting to bet on the team blowing everyone else out of the water and delivering wins consistently. But this is an easy trap sports betters fall into and is, quite honestly, a rookie mistake. 

If you bet professionally, avoid blindly betting on both favorites and underdogs. The only way to win in the long-term is to bet on the value. How to find value in sports betting is explained in the free course.

  1. Bet Against the Public

If you want to be successful in baseball betting, don’t follow the crowd. Many people bet like sheep and go with what everyone else is doing, afraid to stray from the pack. Following the public is a mistake that you should not make. Betting against the public can be scary, and you feel like a silly outlier, but this is the best way to place bets that will pay off. 

When you bet along with the public, even if you win, it’s likely to be a small payout since you didn’t take a big chance. 

  1. Check the Weather

Mother Nature may clue you into how many home runs will be in a game or how high the ball will fly. There is evidence that the wind and altitude play a huge role in how the game goes. A strong wind can turn a flyball into a home run, and still air can stifle a home run into a foul ball. 

When there is a strong wind, expect more runs in a game, which is very helpful when placing runs total bets. 

  1. Watch the Umpires

Everyone wants to pretend that umpires and referees don’t have a massive impact on the game’s outcome, but unfortunately, they are humans and do influence many aspects of the game. 

Especially knowing the umpire behind the plate can help you gauge the number of strikes that will be called, depending on how tight their strike zone is. Some umpires also give into crowd pressure, siding with the home team usually. While others get fired up by the crowd’s rage, siding with away teams. 

The human element of umpiring can’t be helped, but it could help you make some money!

  1. Win on smaller markets

MLB money line market is considered as a sharp market and it is great for professional sports betting, because you win big. However, for many sports bettors this market could be overwhelming. This is why they should try with smaller markets and win with markets like player props.

Final Words

Baseball is my favorite sport to bet and there are a couple of reasons for that. Since I bet with the numbers, there is no other sport that has such a big data sample size.

Baseball is all about statistics and sports betting analytics, which can be an advantage for professional sports bettors, who take this seriously.

Every team plays 162 games per year, plus at the end of the season, we have a couple of more playoff games. No matter if you bet MLB games every day or you make futures bets before the season, you’ll have to make betting analysis. These analysis should include team news, situational. pitching, like right handed pitching or left handed pitching, offensive statistics, batting average, whip and many other advanced metrics.

This gives us a lot of opportunities to bet every single day. We can pick up to 15 games every single day during baseball season. No other sport has so many opportunities during the season.

Quality MLB Predictions and especially the right baseball betting strategy, which is based on numbers helped me to make a profit in the past. This baseball betting model is the heart of my successful handicapping and profitable MLB picks.

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