MLB Picks Today
Tuesday, September 12, 2023
MLB Betting Record 2023: 201-158, +37.59 units
- $37,590 for Dime Bettors
Beating Pinnacle Closing Line 72.88% of times with CLV: +2.06
The best value bets (2 unit – big value bets): 40-19, +30.68 units BTL: 90.91% / CLV: +4.45% / xCLV: +1.64%
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Bet Smarter, Win More!
Want to gain an advantage over bookmakers and amplify your winning odds? You’ve landed on the right page for free MLB picks today!
Welcome to my page for free daily mlb picks.
On this page, I’ll break down how I choose MLB bets and make MLB predictions. I use my own MLB algorithm picks that are carefully picked using a data-driven approach from my advanced betting model. I create independent odds and probabilities and compare them with the odds given by online sports betting bookmakers. This helps me find the most profitable free baseball picks that offer the best value for you.
As someone who has been betting for years, I know how important it is to make informed decisions and get the most out of your bets. That’s why I’m confident that my MLB expert picks will give you valuable insights and help you make smarter bets. Whether you’re an experienced bettor or just starting out, this page is a great resource for anyone looking for quality betting advice and profitable free MLB picks.
MLB Predictions in Google Sheets
Using a custom-built spreadsheet, I generate my private MLB predictions. First, I select the teams and pitchers, taking note of their handedness. My betting model then estimates probabilities, returning projected decimal and American odds to help bettors make informed decisions.
To identify profitable bets, I compare my estimated odds with bookmakers’ odds and calculate the difference between my projected probabilities and the sportsbook’s no-vig probabilities. The spreadsheet also projects total runs for each game and tracks my bets, as well as the closing line value.
Additionally, I use an adjusted Kelly Criterion betting model to determine qualified bets, with recommended units ranging from 1 to 2. This process applies to both full game betting (9 innings) and first-half betting (first five innings). For more details about my spreadsheet, please see below.
Current Season (overall will be added at the end of the season).
Betting efficiency (Profit/total stakes).
CLV/xCLV (Closing line value)
Closing line value tracks taken odds versus closing odds. Learn more
BTL (Beating the line percentage)
How many times the closing line was smaller than taken.
MLB betting model projected win%, odds, and totals.
Bookmakers MLB odds. US odds and decimal odds.
Value bets are based on our kelly formula and predefined criteria.
Projections for 1st half betting.
Boost Your MLB Betting Profits!
MLB Betting Model Results:
NOTE: Qualified best bets based on Predictive Model are updated at the end of every season
- Thousands of bets with overall profit
- CLV (Started tracking in 2018): +1.88% / Beat the line: 64% (Biggest value plays: CLV: +3.48%, BTL: 73.39%
- The model calculates probabilities and MLB odds
- Strategy based on the numbers: adjusted kelly units
Baseball betting successfully for 15+ years. Since 2016 my mlb picks are publicly available.
Free MLB baseball picks results for the past few years
Understanding MLB Picks and Predictions for Winning Bets
Baseball betting offers a wide range of opportunities to wager on outcomes, and understanding different types of MLB picks and predictions can be critical to making profitable bets.
We can categorize them into three simple types: MLB picks, MLB predictions, and MLB computer picks.
What Are Daily Free MLB Baseball Picks?
MLB picks are expert recommendations made by MLB handicappers or analysts, helping you make informed bets with their expertise. These free mlb picks provide bettors with information about the bets and the associated odds, including advice on the recommended units to bet.
While some veterans rely on experience to make their predictions, today’s baseball betting world also features advanced MLB computer picks that use statistical algorithms to generate predictions.
What Are MLB Predictions?
MLB predictions are based on projected probabilities and estimated MLB odds, using advanced sports betting models and algorithms. My free MLB picks are first generated as MLB predictions in my private betting model, which considers factors like player performance, team records, advanced statistics, and lineup reports.
What Are FREE MLB Computer Picks?
MLB computer picks use historical data and trends to generate predictions, taking into account various factors like team performance, player stats, and weather conditions. While many of these picks may not be probabilistic, they provide another valuable tool for bettors to consider when making their bets.
MLB Computer Picks Vs MLB Expert Picks vs Sports Betting Models
If you’ve ever seen Moneyball, this is essentially the big debate in the movie. Some people like to follow the advice and baseball predictions of those with a plethora of experience in the industry.
Others like to trust the math behind the prediction calculators that use algorithms to crunch a massive amount of sports data. The difference here is gut intuition and human sense versus cold hard data.
A wise baseball enthusiast may see something in a young rookie they find promising or may get a bad feeling about an upcoming game. No science can back these predictions, but many humans find comfort in these kinds of predictions and trust the experts.
The prediction calculators use algorithms that focus on probability and past trends. Some of these calculators factor in things like weather and umpires, but most do not as this becomes too complicated.
In the end, we can’t say which is better for you as neither is guaranteed. Both, computer picks and expert MLB picks are not perfect. The best way I found to bet MLB and this is something most sharp bettors do is sports betting models.
Why Blindly Following Free MLB Baseball Picks Can Be a Mistake
Blindly following free MLB picks predictions from sports handicappers throughout the season can lead to missed opportunities and poor betting decisions. One of the main reasons why blindly following MLB bets can be a mistake is that successful sports bettors make their best bets early to beat the closing line. By the time a bettor gets to follow a pick, it may already be too late to get the best odds.
In addition, blindly following picks without considering the odds and deeper understanding can quickly erode a gambler’s bankroll and lead to gambling addiction. Many gamblers who blindly follow MLB picks tend to place bets based on emotion rather than logic, which can lead to poor decision-making and big losses.
Successful sports betting requires discipline, research, and analysis. It is essential to understand the factors that affect the odds and the potential outcomes of a game before placing a bet.
Access My Free Best Bets for Smarter MLB Picks
My ultimate goal is to empower readers to become successful sports bettors. I achieve this by teaching them how to use advanced sports betting models and become analytical, so they can stop blindly following picks and start making their own informed bets.
By sharing some of my best bets publicly, I hope to provide readers with valuable insights and strategies for making informed bets. However, my main focus is to help readers develop the skills and knowledge necessary to analyze games and make their own betting decisions.
With over 15 years of experience analyzing MLB games, I focus primarily on money line bets and point spread bets (run line +0) in the first five innings. I also occasionally make over/under bets when the odds are favorable.
But the best part?
All of my best bets are completely free for readers to access. I don’t sell sports picks. If I release a pick – it is always free! So whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to the game, my expertly-selected MLB picks can help you make more informed and profitable bets. For other sports, check out my website for more free picks.
How To Start Betting Like Professionals
To become a successful baseball handicapper and achieve long-term success in sports betting, it is crucial to start with the basics. My 30-day betting guide provides a great starting point for beginners who want to learn how to bet on baseball and improve their chances of winning. Or you can start with a shorter 5-day FREE Betting Course here.
At first, the world of MLB picks and baseball betting can be intimidating and overwhelming to a newcomer. But with the right knowledge and approach, it is possible to turn your love of the game into a profitable activity.
My free MLB predictions provide an excellent starting point for new bettors looking to get into baseball gambling. By following my expertly-selected picks, you can learn more about the factors that influence betting outcomes and how to make informed betting decisions.
But winning at baseball betting requires more than just following picks blindly. It is essential to understand the key concepts of sports betting, including how to analyze odds, identify value bets, and manage your bankroll effectively.
My courses offer valuable insights and strategies for mastering these key concepts and taking your baseball betting to the next level. With my guidance, you can learn how to turn your passion for the game into a lucrative activity and enjoy watching your favorite team while making smart and profitable bets.
In addition to our free guide and 30-day email course, I also recommend reading my betting articles on how to increase your chances of finding +EV bets in every single matchup. By understanding the factors that influence betting outcomes and using advanced sports betting models and algorithms, you can identify profitable bets and maximize your returns in every game.
Why Betting on Baseball is so attractive?
Baseball is a highly nuanced and intricate sport that offers a wealth of opportunities for sports bettors. While some may view baseball as a ‘slow’ sport, it is actually a minefield of pitches and runs that can be bet on individually.
With a firm understanding of the game, baseball is one of the best sports to bet on because of the sheer number of opportunities to make money. Not only are there plenty of opportunities to place a bet in each game, but there are also many games in a regular season compared to other popular sports.
In fact, there are over 2,430 games in one MLB season, with every game presenting an opportunity for sports bettors. Additionally, the MLB playoffs offer even more opportunities to make profitable bets.
During the summer months, when other major sports leagues are inactive, many professional gamblers turn their attention to MLB betting. Sportsbooks offer bigger limits and great welcome bonuses to attract new customers during the MLB season.
But successful MLB betting requires more than just a casual understanding of the sport. It is essential to have a deep knowledge of the game, including its many rules, strategies, and statistics. Additionally, using advanced sports betting models and algorithms can help identify profitable bets and maximize returns.
If you are serious about sports betting, MLB betting is a market worth exploring. With its highly mathematical nature and countless opportunities for betting, MLB offers a wealth of potential for smart and informed bettors.
Types of Bets
To get you started with the MLB picks today, here’s a breakdown of common types of bets you will hear or read about when exploring the online world of baseball betting and MLB predictions 2022. There are many other kinds of MLB bets, but these seven are the most popular jumping-off points to MLB bet picks and how to bet on baseball.
A money line bet is the most basic wager in baseball betting. A bettor bets on the winner of the game.
Run Line betting is similar to spread betting in any other sport. Because of relatively low-scoring games, the point spreads are set usually at +1.5 and -1.5. It allows bettors to place bets on whether the favorite will beat the underdog by a certain margin. Run line betting on underdogs will increase your chances of winning a single bet and such win can be attractive to some bettors.
A parlay bet, that originated from pirate lingo and wagering activities, is when the better must place bets for multiple teams on one betting slip. These are sometimes very successful but can also be a significant loss.
Parlay bets are a larger risk but also a bigger reward. If you understand underdog droughts and the big favorites in the league, you can sometimes place a successful parlay. These intense bets can not only make you a nice chunk of change, but they make watching multiple games immensely more exciting. Parlay betting takes baseball betting to a whole new and exciting level.
MLB Playoff Predictions
Once October hits, baseball betting heats up. People want to place more bets during MLB postseason for one of two reasons. Either they care more about playoffs and want to bet their money on meaningful and exciting games. Or they are hardcore betters that are already placing bets on football or the NBA and may as well get some sports picks while they’re there.
Since more of the public is placing bets, there is a larger opportunity to make big money, but it’s crucial to refer to expert and algorithm baseball predictions before placing wagers. When it’s playoff time, betting focuses more on the pitchers and the bullpen. Most predictions and wagers are based on the pitchers’ statistics.
You don’t always have to pick a winner to make money. You can place bets on the total number of runs scored in a game. Or how many hits the game has in total.
Run total bets are excellent for loyal fans that don’t want to bet against their team. But they also don’t want to lose money betting with their heart instead of their head.
MLB prop bets
Proposition bets or prop bets are special bets, where you can bet on very specific outcomes in a single game. For example, you can bet on whether a hitter will hit more or less runs. You can bet on how many strikeouts will pitcher get and much more.
All star break
All star break is one small break in this long season and represent another opportunity for baseball bettors to bet on MLB games before the trade deadline. This a game between American League and National League.
When these two teams played in 2002 without a win and 14 runs scored (final score: 7-7) and where starting pitchers ran out, MLB decided to give the meaning to the win in this game.
From the next year a win in this game decides home field advantage for the upcoming World Series. If American league team is a better team, from this league the team has the home field advantage in World Series. While in many other sports All star break game is more for fans and for entertainment purposes only, here starting pitchers do their best and bring their best bullpens alter in the game.
In this game you can bet on a win, on run line, final score, player props, over under, and more.
More MLB Betting Tips
- Avoid blindly betting on both – Favorites and Underdogs
So your team is doing incredible this season and are the favorite to win the world series? That’s awesome, but don’t place your bets on them. Everyone will bet the same way and lessen the opportunity to make a lot of money.
If you bet for fun, place your bets in secret, and you can still root for your team emphatically, but at least you’ll get some cash at the end of the game if they lose! It’s always tempting to bet on the team blowing everyone else out of the water and delivering wins consistently. But this is an easy trap sports betters fall into and is, quite honestly, a rookie mistake.
If you bet professionally, avoid blindly betting on both favorites and underdogs. The only way to win in the long-term is to bet on the value. How to find value in sports betting is explained in the free course.
- Bet Against the Public
If you want to be successful in baseball betting, don’t follow the crowd. Many people bet like sheep and go with what everyone else is doing, afraid to stray from the pack. Following the public is a mistake that you should not make. Betting against the public can be scary, and you feel like a silly outlier, but this is the best way to place bets that will pay off.
When you bet along with the public, even if you win, it’s likely to be a small payout since you didn’t take a big chance.
- Check the Weather
Mother Nature may clue you into how many home runs will be in a game or how high the ball will fly. There is evidence that the wind and altitude play a huge role in how the game goes. A strong wind can turn a flyball into a home run, and still air can stifle a home run into a foul ball.
When there is a strong wind, expect more runs in a game, which is very helpful when placing runs total bets.
- Watch the Umpires
Everyone wants to pretend that umpires and referees don’t have a massive impact on the game’s outcome, but unfortunately, they are humans and do influence many aspects of the game.
Especially knowing the umpire behind the plate can help you gauge the number of strikes that will be called, depending on how tight their strike zone is. Some umpires also give into crowd pressure, siding with the home team usually. While others get fired up by the crowd’s rage, siding with away teams.
The human element of umpiring can’t be helped, but it could help you make some money!
- Win on smaller markets
MLB money line market is considered as a sharp market and it is great for professional sports betting, because you win big. However, for many sports bettors this market could be overwhelming. This is why they should try with smaller markets and win with markets like player props.
Baseball is hands down my favorite sport to bet on, and there are several reasons why. As a numbers-driven bettor, I am drawn to baseball because it has the largest data sample size of any sport, making it an ideal playing field for sports betting analytics and advanced metrics.
With every team playing a whopping 162 games per year, plus additional playoff games, there are endless opportunities for betting analysis. This analysis should include various factors, including team news, situational pitching, offensive statistics, and advanced metrics like batting average and whip.
This abundance of data and opportunities to bet makes baseball an excellent choice for sports bettors. In fact, during the baseball season, we can choose from up to 15 games to bet on every single day, providing more opportunities than any other sport.
To make informed bets, it’s crucial to have quality MLB predictions and a well-researched baseball betting strategy. For me, this means relying on my baseball betting model, which is based on advanced sports betting algorithms and years of experience handicapping games.
With the right approach and a focus on analytics and advanced metrics, baseball betting can be a lucrative and rewarding endeavor for any sports bettor.