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I don’t sell sports picks. So when you find a free pick on my website, it’s always an actual bet I’ve selected based on my sports betting models and analysis. This means the bet is qualified. Such bets are often called best bets, representing enough +EV to be worth wagering. In other words, these are bets with the largest discrepancy between our estimated probabilities and bookmakers’ odds. Throughout the year, you can expect a variety of free sports predictions.
Should You Blindly Follow My Sports Picks?
Following sports picks blindly, without considering other important aspects of betting, won’t work for most bettors. Winning at sports betting requires the right mindset, money management, discipline, investment habits, probabilistic thinking, quick decision-making, paying the right price, continuous improvement, and even a bit of luck.
Sports betting is a relative competition against the entire betting market. In other words, you’re not only competing against sportsbooks but also against other bettors who can move the line. Paying better “prices” (odds) than others is crucial.
Through my free picks and carefully chosen best bets from my betting models, I want to show you how I bet and demonstrate that making accurate predictions is possible.
It’s important to note that all my sports bets are always free, and every single pick is based on my private sports betting models or statistical betting systems developed by my students. The goal of this site is to show you how to make the best bets using data rather than just relying on gut feelings.
Sometimes, you may not find a free pick or play in your preferred sports category, as being a successful sports bettor also means being selective. However, you can explore other leagues or sports and check for available “free sports picks.” Occasionally, I also share some of my bets on Twitter or provide analysis with comments from my spreadsheet on YouTube.
Winning bets in the long run involve a combination of factors, such as a sound betting strategy, the ability to find +EV bets, tracking records, and beating the closing line value, among others.
Which Leagues and Sports Are Covered?
Throughout my time creating predictive models in Google Spreadsheets, I have covered a wide range of leagues and sports. Each free pick I provide falls into one of these categories, ensuring you can easily locate the predictions you’re interested in:
- MLB picks
- NBA picks
- NHL picks
- NFL picks
- CBB picks
- WNBA picks
- CSGO picks
- Soccer picks
- Euro basketball picks
MLB Free Picks
My MLB predictions rank among the top expert picks you’ll find online. With over a decade of experience making MLB predictions, baseball betting is the reason I created this website.
You could say that these MLB predictions are essentially free premium picks, which often sell for thousands of dollars in the market.
In over 10 years, I’ve only had one losing record. All daily baseball best bets since I started this website have been backed by numbers, and every last season’s record is tracked in my bet tracking spreadsheet.
MLB Bet Tracking Results
My baseball betting strategy is transparent and easily explained to others. Each wager is calculated based on my projected odds and bookmakers’ odds.
The beauty of baseball betting lies in the larger bet limits and better odds compared to smaller leagues and less popular sports.
How Do I Conduct MLB Analysis?
Most of my baseball bets are money line bets (MLB game winners) or run line bets (+1.5 / -1.5) or Asian handicap (+0, +0.5). I rarely place wagers on over/under. At the start of each season, I prepare my betting spreadsheet and then typically spend 15 minutes each day inputting the correct teams and pitchers into the model.
Once the right teams and pitchers are in the model, every “MLB comp play” can be simulated in the spreadsheet.
The model provides projected winning percentages, which are converted into odds. If there’s enough value based on my modified Kelly Criterion formula compared to online third-party websites (sportsbooks, bookmakers, betting exchanges, etc.) odds, the bet is usually a good one.
NBA Free Picks
My NBA picks have been particularly successful against the spread, which is why most of my best bets are focused on that aspect. Additionally, my basketball betting model includes NBA player props predictions crafted last year. While spread betting in the NBA can be challenging for many gamblers due to the competitive market, player props can offer an enticing alternative. Keep an eye out for player prop bets in the future, as I plan to share more of these.
NHL Free Picks
Currently, hockey betting presents a considerable challenge for me, as I am in the process of upgrading my NHL betting model and refining my NHL computer picks. While NHL used to be one of my strongest sports, I now place fewer bets on hockey. However, you can still access free NHL picks from my students who have developed their own hockey betting systems. I’ll also share my NHL betting model update process through my NHL picks.
NFL free Picks
Although NFL betting is incredibly popular, especially on Sunday afternoons during the season, it’s not a market I’m particularly fond of. As a sports bettor, I prefer to focus on markets that can be beaten, and the NFL is a notoriously sharp market. Many people place bets on teams they like, rather than identifying bets with a positive expected value, which can quickly lead to gambling problems. The NFL is an attractive yet very sharp market, and long-term success is elusive for many sports gamblers.
The NFL bets, predictions, and picks I’ve made are backed by a simple spreadsheet created by my team, which takes into account various team statistics and rankings from sites like Pro Football Focus
CBB Free Picks
College basketball offers numerous betting opportunities, and after a student requested assistance with CBB betting, I decided to create a simple predictive spreadsheet for NCAA games. I already had a successful basketball betting model, so I adapted it to project spreads and totals in a straightforward way. The model was tested based on various point differences between my calculations and bookmakers’ numbers, seeking differences of 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 points.
After analyzing 1008 CBB picks, the betting model demonstrated solid profits, and you can expect some of these bets here as well.
WNBA & Euro Basketball Free Picks
Expect to find picks from both WNBA and various international basketball leagues, primarily European leagues. My approach involves simple score predictions, looking for at least a 7-point difference between my model and bookmakers’ lines.
CSGO Free Picks
During the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional sports were unavailable, I ventured into esports betting and developed a CSGO prediction model. This model has since generated a considerable profit. When I release CSGO best bets, they are always supported by estimated probabilities in the model.
Soccer Picks
As the most popular sport to bet on globally, soccer offers countless betting opportunities across numerous leagues. I employ two methods for selecting soccer picks, one of which helped me achieve a profit of +13.45 units during a recent major competition. You can expect some expert soccer picks here, either from me or from my students and friends who regularly bet on soccer.
Frequently Asked Questions About My Picks
Can I pay for your sports picks?
No, I don’t sell sports picks – all my picks are 100% free. Instead, I share my betting approach for free to show my way of betting. Sports betting is a single-player game, and success comes from individual efforts rather than blindly following others. Most sports handicappers make money by selling tips rather than actual betting.
Blindly following sports picks doesn’t work for most bettors, as winning at sports betting requires the right mindset, money management, discipline, investment habits, probabilistic thinking, quick decision-making, and a bit of luck. Sports betting is a competition against the entire betting market, not just sportsbooks. Paying better odds than others is essential for success.
Sports betting is not passive income but a unique and active investment that requires placing bets with the right amount, at the right time, and at the right price. This would only be possible if a specific sports bettor could bet for all their followers, which is not feasible due to bookmakers’ limits and the challenges that professional sports bettors face when placing their bets.
What Defines a Good Betting Prediction?
A reliable betting prediction relies on data and probabilities, eliminates emotional bias, and reduces the role of luck. This approach offers an accurate representation of the expected value (+EV), which is essential for making money through sports betting.
To determine if your bet prediction was successful, observe the line movement after placing your bet. In pre-game betting, surpassing the closing line in competitive markets is vital.
Example of a good bet:
A bet is considered favorable if you wager on Patriots -7, and just before the game begins, the Patriots are at -10.
Regardless of the outcome, this is the mark of a quality bet. Closing lines encompass all available information about the game, including betting perspectives (sharp action, public money, line movement, etc.). If you persistently bet on odds better than the closing odds, you can expect to succeed in sports betting.
Who Excels at Bet Prediction?
The most adept bet predictor is a computer, specifically a sports betting model or other software with algorithms and functions. It should be grounded in math, statistics, data, and facts, rather than bold guesses or trends. Betting trends can be deceptive since anyone can use a team’s record and filter their last seven matches or games.
All predictions must include probabilities and the latest price still worth taking. This allows a sports bettor who might place bets with another bookmaker to adjust stakes or avoid a bet if the odds are unfavorable.
What Makes a Great Sports Handicapper?
An exceptional sports handicapper not only showcases their top bets but also teaches other bettors about their betting strategies. Betting picks, even if shared as free bets, should be based on data, well-structured betting systems, analytics, and extensive, long-term results.
Betting experts employ sports betting models, consistently bet on value, use adjusted stakes, maintain robust money management, and focus on closing line value. They recognize that understanding these topics is crucial for sports betting picks to lead to success.
