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About my best sports bets of the day
Throughout the year you can expect different sports betting picks. All my best sports bets of the day are always free and based on my private sports betting models.
Why best sports bets of the day?
The best sports bets of the day are the most valuable daily bets selected with the help of our sports betting models. The main goal of our bet predictions is finding discrepancies between our projected odds and bookmakers’ odds. Daily best bets are bets with the biggest discrepancy between our estimated probabilities and bookmakers’ probabilities.
Which leagues and sports are covered?
In the past years, we have created several sports betting models in Google Spreadsheets and we put them in three main categories and you can check them daily:
#1 US Sports betting picks
- MLB best bets of the day
- NBA best bets of the day
- NHL best bets of the day
- NFL best bets of theday
- CBB best bets of the day
#2 esports betting picks
#3 other sports picks
Should you pay for sports picks?
No, sports betting picks are in most cases not worth paying, because:
- True betting edge is small and most bettors who follow picks will not make enough profit to cover subscriptions prices and odds dropping
- Most sports handicappers who sell picks make most money by selling sports betting picks, not by actual betting on sports Their betting records are usually terrible, without detailed stats and the results are based on short term runs, not on long-term results
- Profitable betting is about finding value bets opportunities and beating the closing lines. Sharp bettors execute early on the betting market. These opportunities don’t happen all the time and will dissapear quickly, especially in sharp markets. Once you pay and follow picks, you are always late and you’ll pay worse price
- Bookmakers have their own limits and even if you have big bankroll, they will not allow you to bet all the stakes you need to cover subscriptions
- An average sports bettor, who is looking for sports betting picks will have hard time identifying skilled bettors.
Is Underdog Chance a sports handicapping service?
Underdog Chance is NOT a sports handicapping service.
All sports betting picks on this website are completely FREE. I share my bets, projected odds, and my betting philosophy to show my way of betting with numbers, staying transparent and honest on my betting journey. My sports betting picks were never meant to be a polygon for creating new followers, who will blindly follow these picks.
The main goal of my work and this site is to help bettors to become independent handicappers or investors in sports. Not followers, who follow other people’s picks, but that they learn how to create their own unique system of profitable sports betting.
Does blindly following sports picks Works?
Blindly following sports picks will not work for most sports bettors. Winning at sports betting includes the right mindset, money management, discipline, investment habits, probabilistic thinking, being quick and paying the right price, improving all the time, and even a little bit of luck.
Betting markets changed, sports picks followers stay the same
The sports betting world has changed.
Bookmakers improved over time, best bettors use technology and are skilled, odds move quickly, lines are sharper, beating the closing line is a very important topic. But the average gambler stays the same.
An average follower in the sports betting world is looking for winners and betting picks. A little bit more advanced followers are looking for value bets or even betting projections, estimated probabilities, that can be later compared with bookmakers. But the general mindset is the same for all bettors – find someone, who can pick winners, then bet the same picks and make money without any effort.
Sports betting is not fighting only against bookmakers
Sports betting is a relative competition against the whole betting market. In other words, you are not fighting only against sportsbooks, but also against other bettors who can move the line. Paying better “prices” (odds) than others is crucial.
Can betting on other people’s sports betting picks be a passive income?
No, sports betting is not considered a passive income. It is a unique and daily active investment, where you must place a bet with the right amount, at the right time, and at the right price. This would be possible only if a specific sports handicapper could bet for all his followers (right odds, right time, right stakes).
But this is not possible, because bookmakers have their own limits and professional sports bettors who truly win, will sometimes even have problems placing their own bets.
What is a good bet prediction?
Good bet predictions are always based on numbers and probabilities, exclude emotions and minimize the luck factor. Only this can give you the picture of expected value (+EV), which is the key if you want to make money in sports betting.
Another thing that will define if your bet prediction was good is checking the line movement after you already made a bet. If we focus on pre-game betting, beating the closing line in sharp markets is very important.
Example of good bet
The bet is good if you bet Patriots -7 and then just before the game starts, Patriots are -10.
No matter the result, this is what makes good sports betting picks. Closing lines incorporate all the information about the game, including from a betting perspective (sharp action, public money, line movement,…). If you constantly bet on the odds, that are better than closing odds you can expect to be a winner in sports betting.
How should best bets and sports picks be presented?
Every best bet should always include probabilities and the last price, which is still worth taking. This way a sports bettor, who might place bets with a different bookmaker has a chance to adjust the stakes or even stay away from a bet if the odds are too low.
What is a good sports handicapper?
A good sports handicapper must not only show his best bets but also educate other bettors about his way of betting. Betting picks must be based on numbers, well-defined betting systems, analytics, and long-term detailed results.
Good sports handicappers use sports betting models, always bet on value, use adjusted stakes, have strong money management, and pay attention to closing line value. They understand that without understanding these topics sports betting picks are simply not enough for winning.