Best Bets Today: Exclusive Underdog Picks Today

Exclusive daily best bets from my private sports betting model: +EV underdog bets selected by comparing betting model’s projected odds with those of bookmakers.

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Best Underdog Bet Today

Thursday, June 13, 2024

St. Louis 1.97 (-103)
Pittsburgh Pirates (Keller) vs St. Louis Cardinals (Lynn) (MLB)

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advice, free sports picks and best bets for today

Discover Free Expert Picks & Underdog Picks Today

Selling sports picks is not my business. Therefore, each free pick or the “best bet today” you discover on my website (or on my betting youtube channel) is carefully selected after thorough analysis and utilizing my sports betting models. This ensures each bet is of premium quality, often referred to as ‘best bets,’ symbolizing a significant +EV making it worthwhile. Essentially, these are the wagers with the most substantial difference between our calculated probabilities and the odds provided by bookmakers.

Best Bets Backed by Data-Driven Analysis

Every single one of my free sports picks and bets is grounded in a data-driven approach. Over the years, I’ve created 10+ distinct predictive models that cover a broad spectrum of sports. Each model has been rigorously tested against the sharpest bookmakers out there, such as Pinnacle. However, despite having models for various leagues, I personally concentrate on one or two leagues at a time.

Baseball holds a special place in my heart and has yielded my best bets and results; it is, without a doubt, my favorite sport to bet on.

Underdog Picks Today, moneyline bets and spreads

Throughout the year, expect a diverse array of free sports picks of the day from my daily best bets card. Most of my qualified free sports picks are focused on Moneyline and spreads, not so much on totals. However, among them, you can find some attractive underdog bets. So, browse through different pages and discover the best underdog sports betting picks for today.

Artificial Intelligence Betting Predictions

In 2023, I embarked on a journey to harness the power of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in sports betting. I provided the AI with the same statistics I would typically use for my analysis and trained it to identify the best bets based on the +EV (Positive Expected Value) concept. Remarkably, all of my College Football Picks are now entirely generated by this AI.

Should You Blindly Follow My Underdog Sports Picks?

Following sports picks blindly, without considering other important aspects of betting, won’t work for most bettors. Winning at sports betting requires the right mindset, money management, discipline, investment habits, probabilistic thinking, quick decision-making, paying the right price, continuous improvement, and even a bit of luck.

Sports betting is a relative competition against the entire betting market. In other words, you’re not only competing against sportsbooks but also against other bettors who can move the line. Paying better “prices” (odds) than others is crucial.

Through my underdog picks today and carefully chosen best bets from my betting models, I want to show you how I bet and demonstrate that making accurate predictions is possible.

free sports picks

I also share some of my bets on my sports betting YouTube channel.

Note also that winning bets in the long run involve a combination of factors, such as a sound betting strategy, the ability to find +EV bets, tracking records, and beating the closing line value, among others.

Navigating the World of Underdog Bets: Insights and Strategies

In the dynamic realm of sports betting, underdog bets stand out. These are wagers placed on teams or players considered less likely to win, offering a unique twist to conventional betting strategies. Daily insights into ‘underdog picks today’ not only add excitement but also open doors to potentially lucrative opportunities.

The Appeal of Underdog Betting

Underdog betting attracts those looking for greater rewards. The inherent risk in these bets is counterbalanced by the potential for higher returns. Savvy bettors understand that finding the best ‘underdog picks today’ involves more than luck; it’s a skill in recognizing hidden value.

Challenges in Underdog Betting

However, the path of underdog betting is filled with unpredictability. Limited information and higher risks are part of the game. Success in ‘underdog picks today’ demands in-depth analysis and an expert eye, traits that our approach to betting exemplifies.

Unique Approach to Underdog Predictions

We stand apart in our method for selecting underdog bets. Our bespoke betting models sift through data to identify those underdog picks with a higher probability of success, offering you a strategic edge.

Which Leagues and Sports Are Covered in My Free Expert Sports Picks?

Throughout my time creating predictive models in Google Spreadsheets, I have covered a wide range of leagues and sports. Each free pick I provide falls into one of these categories, ensuring you can easily locate the predictions you’re interested in:

MLB Free Picks

My MLB best bets rank among the top expert picks you’ll find online. With over a decade of experience making MLB predictions, baseball betting is the reason I created this website.

You could say that my MLB algorithm picks are essentially free premium picks, which often sell for thousands of dollars in the market. You can get best mlb bets of the day completely free on my website. MLB Free Sports Picks are generated by my proprietary MLB betting model, which amassed over 40 units in merely four months in 2023, outperforming the closing line over 70% of the time with high-value best MLB bets surpassing the line over 90% of the occasions with a positive CLV of +4.52%

In over 10 years, I’ve only had one losing record. All daily baseball best bets since I started this website have been backed by numbers, and every last season’s record is tracked in my bet tracking spreadsheet.

mlb bet tracking results

MLB Bet Tracking Results

My baseball betting strategy is transparent and easily explained to others. Each wager is calculated based on my projected odds and bookmakers’ odds.

The beauty of baseball betting lies in the larger bet limits and better odds compared to smaller leagues and less popular sports.

How Do I Conduct MLB Analysis?

Most of my baseball bets are money line bets (MLB game winners) or run line bets (+1.5 / -1.5) or Asian handicap (+0, +0.5). I rarely place wagers on over/under. At the start of each season, I prepare my betting spreadsheet and then typically spend 15 minutes each day inputting the correct teams and pitchers into the model.

Once the right teams and pitchers are in the model, every “MLB comp play” can be simulated in the spreadsheet.

The model provides projected winning percentages, which are converted into odds. If there’s enough value based on my modified Kelly Criterion formula compared to online third-party websites (sportsbooks, bookmakers, betting exchanges, etc.) odds, the bet is usually a good one.

NBA Free Picks

My NBA picks have been particularly successful against the spread, which is why most of my best bets are focused on that aspect. Additionally, my basketball betting model includes NBA player props predictions crafted last year. While spread betting in the NBA can be challenging for many gamblers due to the competitive market, player props can offer an enticing alternative. Keep an eye out for player prop bets in the future, as I plan to share more of these.

best bets today
nba bet prediction record

NHL Free Picks

Currently, hockey betting presents a considerable challenge for me, as I am in the process of upgrading my NHL betting model and refining my NHL picks. While NHL used to be one of my strongest sports, I now place fewer bets on hockey. However, you can still access NHL free sports picks from my students who have developed their own hockey betting systems. I’ll also share my NHL betting model update process through my NHL picks.

NFL Free Picks

Although NFL betting is incredibly popular, especially on Sunday afternoons during the season, it’s not a market I’m particularly fond of. As a sports bettor, I prefer to focus on markets that can be beaten, and the NFL is a notoriously sharp market. Many people place bets on teams they like, rather than identifying bets with a positive expected value, which can quickly lead to gambling problems. The NFL is an attractive yet very sharp market, and long-term success is elusive for many sports gamblers.

The NFL underdog picks, predictions, and free sports picks I’ve made are backed by a simple spreadsheet created by my team, which takes into account various team statistics and rankings from sites like Pro Football Focus.

Check the NFL betting model created by artificial intelligence (ChatGPT 4) in 2023.

College Football Free Picks

College basketball offers numerous betting opportunities, and after a student requested assistance with CBB betting, I decided to create a simple predictive spreadsheet for NCAA games. I already had a successful basketball betting model, so I adapted it to project spreads and totals in a straightforward way. The model was tested based on various point differences between my calculations and bookmakers’ numbers, seeking differences of 5, 6, 7, 8, or 9 points.

After analyzing 1008 CBB picks, the betting model demonstrated solid profits, and you can expect some of these bets here as well.

NCAAF Free Picks

Each week, the AI sifts through the data and generates the top 5 College Football bets, from which I then spotlight the one that stands out as the best bet.

Basketball Free Picks

My basketball betting picks and selection approach involves simple score predictions, looking for at least a 7-point difference between my model and bookmakers’ lines.

WNBA Free Picks

Selecting WNBA picks is based on projecting the spreads in google spreadsheets and the identifying the difference between my model and bookmakers’ lines.

CSGO Free Picks

During the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional sports were unavailable, I ventured into esports betting and developed a CSGO prediction model. This model has since generated a considerable profit. When I release CSGO best bets, they are always supported by estimated probabilities in the model.

Soccer Picks

As the most popular sport to bet on globally, soccer offers countless betting opportunities across numerous leagues. I employ two methods for selecting soccer picks, one of which helped me achieve a profit of +13.45 units during a recent major competition. You can expect some expert soccer picks here, either from me or from my students and friends who regularly bet on soccer.

Underdog Picks Today

Frequently Asked Questions About My Free Picks?

Can I pay for your sports picks?

No, I don’t sell sports picks – all my picks are 100% free. Instead, I share my betting approach for free to show my way of betting. Sports betting is a single-player game, and success comes from individual efforts rather than blindly following others. Most sports handicappers make money by selling tips rather than actual betting.

Blindly following sports picks doesn’t work for most bettors, as winning at sports betting requires the right mindset, money management, discipline, investment habits, probabilistic thinking, quick decision-making, and a bit of luck. Sports betting is a competition against the entire betting market, not just sportsbooks. Paying better odds than others is essential for success.

Sports betting is not passive income but a unique and active investment that requires placing bets with the right amount, at the right time, and at the right price. This would only be possible if a specific sports bettor could bet for all their followers, which is not feasible due to bookmakers’ limits and the challenges that professional sports bettors face when placing their bets.

What Defines a Good Betting Prediction?

A reliable betting prediction relies on data and probabilities, eliminates emotional bias, and reduces the role of luck. This approach offers an accurate representation of the expected value (+EV), which is essential for making money through sports betting.

To determine if your bet prediction was successful, observe the line movement after placing your bet. In pre-game betting, surpassing the closing line in competitive markets is vital.

Example of a good bet:

A bet is considered favorable if you wager on Patriots -7, and just before the game begins, the Patriots are at -10.

Regardless of the outcome, this is the mark of a quality bet. Closing lines encompass all available information about the game, including betting perspectives (sharp action, public money, line movement, etc.). If you persistently bet on odds better than the closing odds, you can expect to succeed in sports betting.

Who Excels at Bet Prediction?

The most adept bet predictor is a computer, specifically a sports betting model or other software with algorithms and functions. It should be grounded in math, statistics, data, and facts, rather than bold guesses or trends. Betting trends can be deceptive since anyone can use a team’s record and filter their last seven matches or games.

All predictions must include probabilities and the latest price still worth taking. This allows a sports bettor who might place bets with another bookmaker to adjust stakes or avoid a bet if the odds are unfavorable.

What Makes a Great Sports Handicapper?

An exceptional sports handicapper not only showcases their top bets but also teaches other bettors about their betting strategies. Betting picks, even if shared as free bets, should be based on data, well-structured betting systems, analytics, and extensive, long-term results.

Betting experts employ sports betting models, consistently bet on value, use adjusted stakes, maintain robust money management, and focus on closing line value. They recognize that understanding these topics is crucial for sports betting tips to lead to success.

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