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advice and free expert sports picks
About free picks
Free picks are my best bets, which are released on his website. Throughout the year you can expect different free sports predictions.
The best sports bets of the day are the most valuable daily bets selected with the help of predictive analytics. The main goal of a single betting analysis in the spreadsheet is finding discrepancies between our projected betting lines and bookmakers’ odds. A free pick is a bet with the biggest discrepancy between our estimated probabilities and bookmakers’ probabilities.
Why Underdog Chance’s Free Sports Picks?
All my sports bets today are always free and every single free pick is always based on my private sports betting models or statistical betting systems from my students. The goal of this site is to show you how to make the best bets with the numbers and not just by gut feelings.
Sometimes you’ll not find a free pick or a free play in your category, because being successful sports bettor also means being selective. But you can jump to another category and check if there is some “free pick winner”. Sometimes I also post some of my free picks on twitter or my bets on reddit.
Winning bets in the long run are always a combination of many things, like good betting strategy, ability to fins +ev bets, tracking records, beating the closing line value and much more.
Which leagues and sports are covered?
In the past years, I have created several predictive models in Google Spreadsheets and every single free pick falls into one of these categories, so you can easily find what are you looking for:
- US Sports free picks
- Esports free picks
- Other free sports picks
MLB free picks
My MLB predictions are among the best expert picks you’ll get in the internet. I make my own MLB predictions for more than 10 years and baseball betting is the reason, why I have this website.
We could say, that these MLB predictions are basically absolutely free MLB premium picks, which are sold for thousands of USD on the market.
I had only one losing record in 10+ years and all daily baseball best bets since I run this website were backed by numbers and every last season’s record is tracked in my bet tracking spreadsheet.
My betting strategy can be explained to other people and every single wager is calculated based on my projected odds and bookmakers odds.
The beauty of baseball betting are also bigger bet limits and better odds compared to smaller leagues and exotic sports.
How I make MLB analysis?
Most of my baseball bets are money line bets (mlb winners of the game) or run line bets (+1.5 / -1.5) or asian handicap (+0, +0.5). I rarely place wagers on over under. At the start of every season I prepare my betting spreadsheet and then I usually spend 15 minutes every day to put right teams and pitchers into the model.
At the start of every season I prepare my betting spreadsheet and then I usually spend 15 minutes every day to put right teams and pitchers into the model. After that every “MLB comp play” can be simulated in the spreadsheet.
Model gives me projected winning percentages, which are turned into the odds and if there is enough value based on my modified kelly criterium formula compared to online third party website (sportsbooks, bookmakers, betting exchanges,…) odds, this is usually a good bet.
NBA free picks
I’ve had very good success with NBA picks against the spread, so most of my best bets will be against the spread. But I also have NBA player props predictions in my basketball betting model, which were made last year. Spread betting in the NBA is much tougher task than some softer markets for most gamblers, which is why I think player props can be very attractive. You can expect some player prop bets in the future as well.
NHL free picks
Hockey betting is a big challenge for me at this moment and I am upgrading my NHL betting model and so-called NHL computer picks. NHL was my 2nd or 3rd best sport in the past, but now I rarely bet on hockey. You’ll get free NHL picks from our students who have created their own hockey betting systems. I will also share my process of update NHL betting model through NHL picks.
NFL free picks
I am not big fan of NFL betting, despite this market is the most popular on every Sunday afternoon during the season. As as sports bettor I like to find markets, which can be beaten and NFL is pretty sharp market. Many people gamble on teams, which they like, not based on positive expected value. Such behaviour soon leads to a gambling problem. American football is very attractive, but also very sharp market, where many sports gamblers will never have any long term success.
NFL bets, predictions and picks I’ve made were backed by my teams simple spreadsheet that takes into account teams numbers and their rankings pro football focus ranked site.
CBB free picks
College basketball offers a lot and I’ve made simple predictive spreadsheet for NCAA games after one of my students asked me if I can help him with CBB betting. I already had simple basketball betting model, which had very good success in the past, so I’ve decided to build a simple model, that can project the spreads and totals in a very simple way. I was testing this system based on different spread/totals differences between my calculated numbers and bookies numbers. I was looking for 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 points differences.
WNBA free picks & Euro basketball picks
You can expect tip from both WNBA picks and different international basketball leagues. But mostly from European leagues. The method I use is a simple score prediction and then finding at least 7 points difference between my model and bookmakers lines.
CSGO free picks
During the Covid, when there was no other sport, I’ve decided to research esports betting and my CSGO prediction model was born and I’ve made some nice profit since then.
When I release CSGO best bets, they are always backed by estimated probabilities in the model.
Soccer of football is most popular sport to bet in the World and many leagues offer a lot of opportunities to make bets. I have two methods for selecting soccer picks. One method helped me to make +13.45 units of profit during last big competition. You can expect some of soccer expert picks here, either from myself or from some of my students/friends who bet regularly on soccer.
Should you pay for sports picks?
No, in most cases they are not worth paying, because:
- True betting edge is small and most bettors who follow picks will not make enough profit to cover subscriptions prices and odds dropping
- Most sports handicappers are highly touted marketers, who sell picks. They make money from selling betting tips, not by actual betting on sports. Their track records are usually terrible, without detailed stats and the results are based on short-term runs, not on long-term results. Such tout will usually bring new customers on social media for upcoming season and then this same handicapper will create a big hype with promoting last night’s action. Or they simply talk in runs, like “we won six straight games” without having the ability to explain the method to others.
- Profitable betting is about finding value bets opportunities and beating the closing lines. Sharp bettors execute early on best odds. These opportunities don’t happen all the time and best odds will disappear quickly, especially in sharp markets. Once you pay and follow picks, you are always late and you’ll pay the worse price
- Bookmakers have their own limits and even if you have a big bankroll, they will not allow you to bet all the stakes you need to cover subscriptions
- An average sports bettor, and especially the one with a gambling problem doesn’t have the ability and the knowledge, to identify a skilled bettor.
Does blindly following other people’s free bets work?
Blindly following sports picks and free bets will not work for most sports bettors. Winning at sports betting includes the right mindset, money management, discipline, investment habits, probabilistic thinking, being quick and paying the right price, improving all the time, and even a little bit of luck.
Sports betting is a relative competition against the whole betting market. In other words, you are not fighting only against sportsbooks, but also against other bettors who can move the line. Paying better “prices” (odds) than others is crucial.
Can betting on other people’s betting picks be a passive income?
No, sports betting is not considered a passive income. It is a unique and daily active investment, where you must place a bet with the right amount, at the right time, and at the right price. This would be possible only if a specific sports bettor could bet for all his followers (right odds, right time, right stakes,…).
But this is not possible, because bookmakers have their own limits and professional sports bettors who truly win, will sometimes even have problems placing their own bets.
What is a good betting prediction?
Good bet predictions are always based on numbers and probabilities, exclude emotions and minimize the luck factor. Only this can give you the picture of the expected value (+EV), which is the key if you want to make money in sports betting.
Another thing that will define if your bet prediction was good is checking the line movement after you already made a bet. If we focus on pre-game betting, beating the closing line in sharp markets is very important.
Example of a good bet:
The bet is good if you bet Patriots -7 and then just before the game starts, the Patriots are -10.
No matter the result, this is what makes a good wager. Closing lines incorporate all the information about the game, including from a betting perspective (sharp action, public money, line movement,…). If you constantly bet on the odds, that are better than closing odds you can expect to be a winner in sports betting.
Who is the best bet predictor?
The best bet predictor is a computer. A sports betting model or any other betting software that contains algorithms and functions. It must be based on math, statistics, data and facts. Not just by bold guessing or just trends. Betting trends are very dangerous, because anyone can use team record and filter last seven contests, or last seven games.
All predictions should always include probabilities and the last price, which is still worth taking. This way a sports bettor, who might place bets with a different bookmaker has a chance to adjust the stakes or even stay away from a bet if the odds are too low.
What is a good sports handicapper?
A good sports handicapper must not only show his best bets but also educate other bettors about his way of betting. Betting picks, even if they are shared as free bets, they must be based on numbers, well-defined betting systems, analytics, and long-term detailed results.
Betting experts use sports betting models, always bet on value, use adjusted stakes, have strong money management, and pay attention to closing line value. They understand that without understanding these topics sports betting picks are simply not enough for winning.
Which bet is easiest to win?
Easiest bet to win is a bet on minus odds or favorites.
What are minus odds?
Minus odds, or the odds with the probability higher than 50% are the easiest to win. The bigger the favorite the easiest is to win a bet.
But this is not the same as making a profitable bet. A profitable bet can be a bet on favorite or on an underdog. It depends what is the difference between your predicted probability and bookmakers implied probability. Professional sports bettors call it +EV bets.