Cal Quantrill (CLE) vs Blake Snell (SDP) Wed, Aug 24, 2022 04:10 PM (ET)
The Cleveland Guardians are set to take on the San Diego Padres in a two-game series, with the finale taking place today. The Guardians will be sending right handed pitcher Cal Quantrill to the mound, while the Padres will counter with lefty Blake Snell.
Quantrill has been one of the best pitchers in baseball over the past few games with the 5-0 record and ERA of 3.61 in last 8 games, and he’ll look to continue his success against San Diego Padres. Snell, on the other hand, has been solid for the Padres (5-6, ERA 3.76) and will be looking to shut down the Guardians’ offense.
So, at the fist look some bettors would say, that Cleveland with Quantrill on the mound is a potentially good underdog bet again, especially because they are an underdog again. But let’s dive into the analysis little bit deeper.
Pitching analysis will show us how good are both teams today when we take into account starting pitching + bullpen.
Quantrill has been good lately, but ERA doesn’t tell us everything about the pitcher and once we go deeper into the analysis, we can see that his pitching in fact is pretty average. Compared to his ERA of 3.61, other metrics like xERA (4.44), FIP (4.44), xFIP (4.55) and SIERA (4.67) and even K/9 (5.83) are not that great.
Based on these information, Quantrill was probably lucky in some parts of the game and his ERA should be little bit bigger.
If we compare these numbers with Blake Snell’s numbers, we can see that Padres will have in fact the advantage and no wonder why such underdog odds again on Guardians. Blake Snell ERA is 3.76, but this is aligned with other pitching statistics like xERA (3.16), FIP (2.77), xFIP (3.33), SIERA (3.38) and K/9 (12.05). He has been great after All Start too with ERA of 0.94.
Both pitchers can and will probably go over 5 innings, but in the first half of the game, San Diego Padres will have the advantage.
Both teams have a good and solid bullpen with small advantage for Cleveland. Their overall ERA is 3.26 and based on my MLB betting model, I rank them 4th best in MLB. But Padres are pretty good as well. They are above average bullpen team (ERA, 3.69, 10th), based on my rankings and they have been even better at home (ERA 3.26).
Small advantage: San Diego Padres
Based on my analysis, a pitching matchup is very close and we should take a look at hitting and situational stats. Padres will face right handed pitcher at least in the first part of the game.
They score 4.45 runs per 9 innings against righties and in the last 30 days I rank them 7th best hitting team, when we take into account different angles and stats.
Guardinas on the other side score 4.39 runs per 9 innings this season. They are slightly better against righties with 4.58 R/9. But when they face left handed pitching, they score 3.86 runs per 9, which is way than against lefties and today they will have to face red hot left handed pitcher.
Advantage: San Diego Padres
MLB Betting Model Percentages
My baseball betting model with the record [235-197, +34.69 units] this season projected odds at:
- Cleveland Guardians +190
- San Diego Padres -190
Pinnacle opened San Diego Line at -159 (1.63) and after that the line went to -149 (1.67). Based on my sports betting model projections, we have a value on San Diego.
Because I use modified kelly criterium for staking and units, the formula shows that recommended bet on Padres at -149 (1.67) is 1.25 units and 1.5 units on Padres first five innings at the odds of -156 (1.64).
MLB Predictions and Final Best Bets
Both betting model projections and expert opinion are on San Diego Padres Side. I think we have a value with Padres at home, who will try to bounce back after yesterday’s loss.
We have better pitcher on the mound and we have better situational hitting with San Diego. Both teams are fighting for playoffs, so we should see motivated players on both sides, but for San Diego this is the last game at home. After that game, they are going on a 9 game road trip, where they will face Kansas City Royals, San Francisco Giants and the best team in MLB – Los Angeles Dodgers.
My recommended and best bets for this game:
- San Diego Padres -149 (1.25 units moneyline)
- San Diego Padres F5 -156 (1.5 units first five mlb against the spread +0)
Risk is the total amount risked on a single bet. For full card and all my today’s MLB bets, check my Free MLB Picks Page.
Play responsibly and never follow blindly anyone. Always make your own research before you bet. I also recommend to learn how sports betting works, and how to use numbers in betting, before you risk any of your money.