In this article I will break down every single game from today’s major league baseball card. I have had great success over the years betting on baseball with my daily MLB predictions, and had only one negative season in last 10+ years.
This year my MLB picks are 210-180, +25.92 units with positive closing line value and beating the line more than 72% of time. Check also other sports picks here.
About my free MLB picks
Throughout baseball season, I make baseball predictions every day. All my MLB score predictions are calculated in my private MLB betting model, where I calculate winning percentages and projected runs in a single game. Most of my bets are moneyline bets and mlb bets agaisnt the spread, especially underdog spreads in first five innings. I rarely take over under bets.
Winning percentages are turned into the odds and compared with bookmakers’ MLB odds. If there is enough big discrepancy between my odds and their odds, this is potentially a good bet (+EV bet). Professional sports bettors always focus on the odds and not that much on who might win in the game and this exactly what will focus on here.
Let’s get downs to the business.
Table of contents
Use the links bellow to jump to each section
Table of contents
Atlanta Braves at Miami Marlins
Starting Pitchers G1: Kyle Muller (ATL) vs Jesus Luzardo (MIA) / G2: IAN Anderson (ATL) vs Nick Neidert (MIA)
We have a doubleheader today. First game will be played earlier and after that the second game. I am not a big fan of betting on double headers, because many things can change in these MLB games, even initial pitchers. Many sportsbooks open the odds much later and you can miss the value.
However, let’s take a look at this game.
Atlanta beat Miami yesterday in close game by 4-3, after they were trailing almost the game. But when we take a loot at both teams, Braves are a better team with better pitching and hitting statistics.
At the time of this analysis sharp bookies still didn’t open their lines for this game. Some other sportsbooks have Atlanta as a small favorite at around 1.83 (-120), which is very similar to my MLB predictive model, which has Atlanta Braves at -137.
Despite there is small value with Atlanta in G1, we have a pitcher, which is not qualified for my betting model. Because of that I use league average (SP) numbers in the analysis for Atlanta pitching. When this happen I usually skip the game and don’t place any wager.
The same story is with the second game. I am not interested in any of these games. Too many open questions.
No bet for me.
Cleveland Guardians at Toronto Blue Jays
Starting Pitchers: Triston Mckenzie (CLE) vs Mitch White (TOR)
Both teams have a winning record and some bookmakers like Cloudbet already have the odds for this game. This sportsbook gives a better chance to Blue Jays with the odds of 1.82 (-122). Based on my MLB betting model, I give little bit better chance to Cleveland in this game. And here is the reason.
I think that we have a better pitcher with Triston Mckenzie. Mitch White was pitching for Dodgers before he was traded to Toronto. His ERA of 3.86 is lower compared to other advanced pitching metrics. I think that we have a better pitcher with Guardians. Triston Mckenzie can go deper into the game. He is averaging 6 innings per game, compared to 4.5 from Mitch White, he has more innings pitched in the last year, more experienced and better advanced ERA statistics, like SIERA.
Based on my betting model projections, this is almost a qualified bet with the current odds. ADJK shows that we have a strong lean with Cleveland, but it is still not there.
I use my own betting criteria, where my value betting baseball formula calculates the number. If the number is bigger than one, this is a qualified bet. At 0.96 this is just below qualified wager. We should keep an eye on team news and maybe make later MLB pick in this American League game.
No play. But strong lean: Cleveland Guardians at 1.82 (-122)
Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays
Starting Pitchers: DL Hall (BAL) vs Shane Mclanahan (TBR)
We don’t have much information about DL Hall who will start for Orioles. He pitched in minor leagues (A+, AA, AAA) this season and in 70 innings (18 AAA pitching matchups) he posted ERA of 4.76. One very interesting thing I found is his strike out rate. 14.66 strike outs per 9 innings is very impressive. His xERA and xFIP numbers are better than basic ERA so, he might show up.
But this is still not enough for me to take action in this game. My projected odds with league average pitcher give Tampa Bay around 65.57% of chance to win this game. My fair odds are 1.53 (-190) and this is exactly what we see on some betting sites, like Cloudbet. Most other sportsbooks will open odds much later.
No bet for me.
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds
Starting Pitchers: Adrian Sampson (CHC) vs Graham Ashcraft (CIN)
Reds have lost 4 straight games and they started a series against the Cubs at home two days ago with a loss. They will try to bounce back from losses in today’s game against the Cubs, who won 3 out of 4 last MLB games.
Both teams had a day off yesterday and we should see rested teams, and especially bullpens. if we take a loot at pitching matchup we have similar players and I don’t see any big advantage on any side.
Adrian Sampson is still looking for his first win this season as he is now 0-3 with the ERA of 3.83. Graham Ashcraft has a winning record of 5-2 and ERA of 3.94 and it looks like the Reds find the path to win in his games.
Based on my betting model prediction, Reds will have little bit better chance to win this game. My projected fair odds on Reds are 1.96 (-105) with probability of 51.12%.
Sharp bookmakers like Pinnacle online sports betting site have Cincinnati Reds at -109, which is basically the same as mine.
The same story is with first five inning betting. No value at all. I think that the odds on the betting market are fair.
San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals
Starting Pitchers: You Darvish (SDP) vs Anibal Sanchez (WSN)
Anibal Sanchez is 0-5 this season with the ERA of 7.56. He is not doing well and his team is not helping him too. Washington Nationals are 17 – 41 at home and they will face a team with the winning record. Both at home and on the road. MLB handicappers hate playing Nationals at home this regular season.
But the question is not whether San Diego has a better chance to win this game, but what should be the fair price between these to teams.
Based on my baseball betting model, San Diego has 68.22% of chance to win this game. If we convert probabilities into the odds, my fair odds are San Diego 1.47 (-215) and Washington 3.15 (+215).
Bookmakers have SDP at -278 and WSN at +215. The odds even went down little bit on San Diego Padres. We have clearly much better team here and money will probably be on San Diego Padres. Many MLB handicappers will use them in parlays, which is not something I would recommend.
Adjusted kelly criterium formula, which I use for identifying +EV bets shows 0.38, which is not even close to be a qualified bet.
I will stay away from this game. Sometimes baseball best bets are those you don’t touch.
No play in this baseball game.
Detroit Tigers at Chicago White Sox
Starting Pitchers: Matt Manning vs Lucas Giolito
Chicago White Sox beat Detroit Tigers yesterday in a low scoring game by 2-0. Both teams are struggling currently hitting runs. If we check their batting performance in last 10 games, Detroit is scoring only 2.86 runs per game.
Chicago White Sox is not much better with 2.97 runs per game. Both Detroit and White Sox scored 3 or less runs in last 5 regular season games. It’s hard to say what we can expect here in this MLB game today.
My MLB betting model has 8.29 runs, while bookmakers set the total at 8 run. I am not interested in betting on totals here.
But what I like is a pitching match up, which I think is completely on home team’s side. Lucas Giolito is 8-6 this season with the ERA of 4.91, but ERA is not the best pitching metric for successful betting. Many MLB handicappers use this data as the main source for their MLB picks, but if we check other statistics that have a better predictive power, we can see clear difference.
So, Matt Manning is 0-0 this season with the ERA of 2.25. Compared to Giolito’s numbers, he looks much better. But once we check xFIP, xERA, SIER, k/9 we have a better SP with Giolito.
The only concern is cold batting on both sides and once the game hits late stages, relievers will take the mound. But even here I give the advantage to White Sox. Based on my rankings, White Sox bullpen is 15th in the league and Tigers bullpen 19th in the league.
Fair odds based on my predictions model in this game are 1.36 (-278) on White Sox and 3.78 (+278) on Detroit Tigers. The same is with the first five innings, where my predicted probability is bigger than implied probability from bookmakers.
Because of that I have two free baseball picks in this MLB Game. Both MLB moneyline bets.
The first one is MLB moneyline bet on White Sox at 1.51 (-196). The second free MLB moneyline pick is White Sox F5 at 1.53 (-189).
My average taken odds this season are 2.03 (+103) successful mlb gambling has nothing to do with playing MLB underdogs or playing MLB favorites. It is always about the difference between my estimated probabilities and bookmakers probabilities.
Because in this case 1.36 means, that if I make a bet of $100, I expect at least $36 profit. But because bookmakers are willing to pay me more ($51) this a “good deal”.
When it comes to wagers 1 unit is always 1 unit. Which means, that 1 unit bet on the odds of -196 is always just 1 unit and not 1.96. This is sometimes confusing for bettors in the USA who use mostly American odds. Just wanted to make it clear.
So we have two free MLB picks in this American League Game:
- White Sox ML 1.51 (-196) 2 units
- White Sox F5 1.53 (-189) 1 unit
Los Angeles Dodgers at Kansas City Royals
Starting Pitchers: Andrew Heaney vs Brad Keller
Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in the league with impressive record above 0.700. They are also the first favorite to win World series in major league baseball.
The central question a sports bettor might have here is if Dodgers are overrated or not. If we look at their impressive record at Dodger stadium, they are 40-15, but even if we check their record on the road, they are killing it.
They won eleven straight games, including yesterday’s game on the road against Kansas City Royals by 8-3. What makes their wins lately even more spectacular is that they scored 8 or more runs in last 6 games. That’s almost two times better than league average.
When we look at pitching matchup, right handed Brad Keller will start for Royals. He is 6-12 this season with the ERA of 4.45. On the other side Heaney is a left-handed pitcher who was traded to Los Angeles Dodgers last season from NY Yankees, but most of his career he played for Los Angeles Angels.
Heaney pitched only one game for Dodgers this season and is now 1-0 with the ERA of 0.64.
I give Dodgers around 66.66% of chance to win this MLB game today and my fair estimated odds are 1.50 (-200). Bookmakers have Dodgers at -244, which is little bit to much and there is no value betting on LAD. My fair odds on Kansas City Royals are 3.00 (+200) and the combination of sportsbook odds and my adjk criteria, we don’t have any value.
Skip this game.
Oakland Athletics at Houston Astros
Starting Pitchers: Zach Logue vs Lance McCullers Jr.
Astros are among the best teams in the league. They are a leading team in American League West Division with the record of 73-41. They are riding 2 game winning streak, where they scored 7 runs in both games. Including yesterday against Oakland.
Oakland Athletics on the other side is the last team in AL West with the record of 41-72 and their baseball season is practically over.
Predicted probabilities from my baseball model show that Houston will have more than 70% of chance to win this game. My projected odds are 1.37 (-269) on Astros and 3.69 on Oakland. Some sportsbooks will open the lines later, but if we check Cloudbet odds, they have Houston at 1.37 and Oakland at 3.37.
Of course those odds include margins (vig) and are very similar to my estimated odds, so I don’t see any value betting on this game.
We simply have a much better home team, but the odds on the market represent fair prices.
No MLB bet in this game.
Philadelphia Phillies at New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Aaron Nola vs Jacob deGrom
Very interesting baseball game from sports handicapping perspective, because we have two excellent pitchers.
NYM are the better team this season with the record of 73-40, but also Phillies are playing very solid baseball this regular season with the record of 63-49.
Another interesting thing is that Jacob deGrom has very good numbers against Philadelphia hitters. Their current roster has 95 at-bats against him with batting average of .147, OBP .195, SLG .193, OPS .389 and zero home runs.
On the other side New York Mets batters have very solid numbers against Nola. In 187 at-bats they scored 8 home runs, with BA .294, OBP .393, SLG .480 and OPS .873.
Normally I would go deeper into the betting analysis, but when one pitcher is new pitcher in major league baseball or if the pitcher comes back from injury, I stay usually away from any online gambling activities. Simply, because there is many open questions.
Jacob deGrom is among top pitchers, but he came back from an injury. I am very careful in this situations and like to wait little bit. We saw in the past that pitchers who came back from injury they were never the same again. I am not saying, that this is the scenario with Jacob deGrom, but for my betting model a starting pitcher is qualified if he pitched certain amount of innings in some period of time. Like last 365 days. It is always the best to stick with the facts, numbers and proven method, and not with unbiased personal opinions and gut feelings. So I will trust the numbers here and will simply stay away from the game.
Because deGrom doesn’t have enough innings after the injury, I used league avg numbers for SP and this is automatically no bet.
New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox
Starting Pitchers: Frankie Montas vs Kutter Crawford
A classic game between Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees at Fenway Park is very attractive opportunity for many gamblers. Let’s take a look at this from sports betting perspective.
Red Sox beat Yankees yesterday in a close game after extra innings by 3-2. I had Red Sox as a small run line in first five innings, but it was unfortunately a losing bet, despite I beat the closing line.
My MLB predictions for this game shows that Boston Red Sox will have 43.38% of chance to win this game. This represent the odds of 2.31 (+131) and this is very similar what bookmakers offer right now.
My predictive betting model doesn’t show any value in this game.
Yankees are better team, they have slightly better pitcher on the mound and this already calculated into the odds.
If you still want to bet on this game, there are some interesting facts you should know. NYY are on a losing streak right now. They lost 9 out of 11 last games. Every team will have such a run before MLB postseason and this is something normal.
Red Sox on the other side won 2 straight games, but they are not playing really well. They also won only 2 out of last 11 games, which is the same as NYY.
Note also that in these games players are little bit more motivated as this is considered as the most intense game in baseball.
Seattle Mariners at Texas Rangers
Starting Pitchers: Marco Gonzales vs Dane Dunning
Rangers lost agains Mariners yesterday by 6-2, but they faced Kirby who is very solid this season. Anyway, Rangers will try to bounce back in this game and I give small advantage to Dunning in this matchup. At least based on my rankings.
Seattle Mariners are better overall team with the record of 62-52, and they also have a great results in Texas (11-1 in Texas last 12 games).
When it comes to full game, I don’t see any value, because Texas has below average bullpen and Seattle has among the best bullpens in the league.
So, let’s focus on first five inning, where I think Texas might have a chance, because I give small edge to their pitching at the start of the game.
My betting algorithms show that Rangers will have 56.34% of chance winning first half. They will face left handed Marco Gonzales, which I think is a good situation for them.
Texas Rangers score 5.49 runs against left-handed pitchers compared to only 4.12 vs right handed. With Mariners the situation is different. They will face right handed pitcher and they score 4.06 vs RHP compared to their production vs LHP (4.14).
In other words, Rangers have slightly better pitcher in first half, they score situational (vs LHP) 5.49 runs compared to situational Mariners, that produces only 4.06 (vs RHP). We can add home field advantage and the odds on the market, which are close to 50% vs 50%.
With my predicted probability of 56.34% on Texas and adjk I have value with Texas Rangers. Usually I am taking small run line in first five innings if I have an underdog, but in this case, TEX F5 moneyline is a good bet at 1.98 (-102).
Free MLB bet: Texas Rangers F5 (+0) 1.98 (-102). If tie, bet is canceled.
Milwaukee Brewers at St Louis Cardinals
Starting Pitchers: Corbin Burnes vs Adam Wainwright
This is a battle for the first place in National League Central. Corbin Burnes who is 8-5 with 2.45 ERA is facing Adam Wainwright who is 8-8 3.42 ERA.
We have interesting situation, where one pitcher has a pretty solid numbers against opposite hitters and the other SP doesn’t have great numbers.
Brewers hitter have 205 at-bats versus Wainwright and they scored 10 home runs with batting average of .312, OPB .373, SLG .563, OPS .936.
St Louis Cardinals hitters from active roster have 133 AB agaisnt Burnes, but scored only 3 home runs with batting average of 0.218, OPB .277, SLG .325, OPS .603.
Despite Milwaukee Brewers are the road team here, and despite they are second in their division behind Cardinals, bookmakers give them small advantage. They are offered at minus money.
But this is exactly what my predictive model has. My estimated probabilities are 53.61% on Milwaukee with predicted fair odds of 1.87 (-116). With predicted +116 (2.13) on Cardinals and market odds of +113 (2.13) on St Louis, there is no value in this game.
Cardinals have won yesterday’s first game between these two teams by 3-1.
Arizona Diamondbacks at Colorado Rockies
Starting Pitchers: Zac Gallen vs Jose Urena
Zac Gallen is impressive and Arizona will have an advantage in pitching. He holds the record of 7-2 with 3.12 ERA, which makes this record even better if we take into account that Arizona Diamondbacks is a losing team (51-61).
Jose Urena on the other side is 1-3 with the ERA of 4.63 for Colorado Rockies. My model gives 56.59% of chance to Arizona and predicted odds of 1.77 (-130), which is very similar to bookmakers odds ARI 1.72 (-139) vs COL 2.27 (+127).
Despite I like Zac Gallen, I don’t see any value in taking these odds. Bookmakers did a good job and took all these things into account and the odds are fair.
Pittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
Starting Pitchers: Tyler Beede vs Logan Webb
Tyler Beede is not qualified for my betting model yet, and I want to wait little bit more to collect more data and then we can start using in our predictive model.
However, he is sitting at 1-1 3.57 ERA, which seems pretty ok at this moment, but on the other side we have San Francisco Giants and Logan Webb who is 10-5 3.17 ERA.
Projections with league average SP numbers gives me probabilities of 70.19% on San Francisco Giants with the odds of 1.42. Most bookies will open these odds much later, but some bookies have SFG at 1.43, which is very similar to my numbers.
Minnesota Twins at Los Angeles Angels
Starting Pitchers: Dylan Bundy vs Reid Detmers
The last game will be played on Angeles stadium between road right-handed pitcher and home left-handed pitcher.
Angels are still playing without Mike Trout and this is a big miss and their hopes for World series are gone this season. They have a negative record of 49-64.
Minnesota Twins on the other side is 58-53 this season and they won yesterday by 4-0 in the first game of the series.
I don’t see any big pitching advantage on any side in this game. Numbers from my predictive MLB spreadsheet show that Minnesota should be a small favorite with projected probability of 54.65% and the odds of 1.83 (-121). Bookmakers have MLB odds 1of 1.99 (-101) on home team and MLB odds of 1.93 (-108). There is no value in this game for me.
Summary of my MLB bets today
I found three bets with the biggest value in Chicago where I have one 2 unit bet and one 1 unit bet. The third bet is on Texas, but only in first five innings.
- CHW ML @1.51 (2 units)
- CHW F5 @1.53 (1 unit)
- TEX F5 @1.98 (1 unit)
I hope these free MLB picks today will give you short insight into my analysis and I hope other baseball predictions with estimated probabilities will help you to make some winning bets.
Don’t forget to share my bets on social media or any mlb picks forum or twitter, if you’ll see the value in these betting previews. Finally sign up for a Free betting training and learn how to start betting with the numbers and sports betting models. Successful betting!