I’ve crunched the numbers and gone through our NHL betting model to make a prediction for a showdown between two teams that are sure to bring the heat – the Calgary Flames and Buffalo Sabres. Who will come out on top?
Introduction
On February 11, 2023, in Buffalo, the fans will be out supporting their local team as they try to get back on track. The Sabres are determined not to let this game slip away and battle it out against an equally desperate Calgary Flames who have also tasted defeat twice in a row.
Overview of the game, spreads, moneyline and the odds
The oddsmakers opened the money line at around -125 on Calgary Flames and +105 on Buffalo Sabres. The market gives a little bit more chance to the Flames in this exciting matchup.
Calgary Flames
Despite dominating the Detroit Red Wings in shots, Calgary’s 2-1 defeat on Thursday embodied their recent struggles to close out tight games.
The Flames achieved a commanding 29-7 advantage in shots during five-on-five play yet were unable to preserve a 1–0 lead heading into the second period and eventually fell victim to another heartbreaker.
The Calgary team is facing a precarious situation, as their record of 12-9-10 in close games could cost them the playoffs if they don’t swiftly reverse this trend.
Team statistics
Calgary Flames score 3.1 goals per game, and allow 3.1 goals per game this season. Despite they outplayed most teams when it comes to shots per game, they make 35.4 shots per game and allow 27.7 shots per game, they are now in critical situation if they want to reach playoffs.
The Flames are second best in the league with CF% (Percentage of total Corsi in games that team played that are for that team: 55.37) and 2nd in the league in FF% (Percentage of total Fenwick in games that team played that are for that team: 55.29%)
Recent Injury Updates for Calgary Flames Players
The Calgary Flames will be with Rasmus Andersson, who is suffering an undisclosed ailment that leaves his status for Saturday in question, and Oliver Kylington who is out of action indefinitely for personal reasons.
Buffalo Sabres
After a long break, the Sabres returned to action with mixed results: they had an unfortunate 5-1 loss against the Carolina Hurricanes on Feb. 1, but also made headlines by signing forward Dylan Cozens for seven years and $49.7 million – a major step towards their rebuilding efforts!
Despite having missed out on playoffs for 11 seasons running now, it looks like brighter days may be ahead this time around; only time will tell if all these changes are enough to make them postseason contenders again at last!
Team statistics
Buffalo Sabres are 26-20-4 this season. They score 3.7 goals per game and allow 3.4 goals. They have been very solid when it comes to shots per game this season as they made 32.5 shots per game, but they also allow 32.6 shots per game, which puts them among the worst teams in the league.
Sabres are 8tht in the league with CF% (Percentage of total Corsi in games that team played that are for that team: 51.51) and 20th in the league in FF% (Percentage of total Fenwick in games that team played that are for that team: 50.28%)
Recent Injury Updates for Buffalo Sabres Players
The Buffalo Sabres have been dealt a triple-blow of injuries – Thompson is nursing an upper-body injury, but is probable for this game, Jost might not be able to go due to illness and Bishop has had his season cut short with a knee issue.
Betting Analysis and Prediction for the Game
Both teams need a win this game as they both lost 2 straight games. Buffalo Sabres are a surprise this season, while Calgary Flames are playing below expectations. Last season, the Flames blazed their way to a Pacific Division Championship, but this year they have lit out far below expectations.
A probable goalie for Calgary is Jacob Markstrom, who is 12-12-7 this season with GAA 2.93 and SV% of 0.892. On the other side Buffalo will probably start with Luukkonenm who is 13-6-2 this season with GAA of 3.26 and SV% 0.900.
NHL Betting Model
The bookmakers have the Flames as a small favorite and with Buffalo Sabres playing at home and my predictive NHL betting model taking current lineups into account, gives them an even bigger chance. The current bookmaker’s odds have Calgary Flames at around -118 and my model gives the Flames a 64.26% of chance.
Free Recommended Bet: Calgary Flames -118
Both teams need a win this game. Both teams are coming to this game after 2 straight losses. However, I think we have a better team than Calgary Flames. They are still among the best teams in the league when it comes to domination on the ice. Their Fenwick and Corsi numbers suggest that they will play aggressively again. This is where I expect they will have an advantage, especially because Buffalo allows lots of shots.
Games like Detroit, where they outplayed them, but couldn’t score don’t happen every day. My model gives them the advantage and although no model is perfect, they are crucial to finding +EV bets. I think we have a value with Calgary Flames at -118.
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