In the EDSON BARBOZA vs LERONE MURPHY UFC prediction, our UFC betting model gives Murphy a 57.01% chance of winning based on ELO ratings and a 60.56% probability using logistic regression. Both models favor Murphy, making him the recommended pick for this fight.

EDSON BARBOZA vs LERONE MURPHY UFC prediction was made exclusively by Eric, an Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass member, who created a UFC betting model and shares UFC predictions and betting model picks for this UFC fight today.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Saturday, May 18, 2024
  • Event: UFC Fight Night
  • Away Team: Edson Barboza
  • Decimal Odds: 1.71
  • US Odds: -141
  • Home Team: Lerone Murphy
  • Decimal Odds: 2.24
  • US Odds: +124

Note: Odds can change. Always shop for the best UFC odds on different sportsbooks.

Comparing Fighter Stats

When analyzing the EDSON BARBOZA vs LERONE MURPHY UFC prediction, it’s essential to compare their statistics to understand their strengths and weaknesses.

Significant Strikes Landed per Minute

  • Edson Barboza: 4.18
  • Lerone Murphy: 3.65

Barboza lands more significant strikes per minute compared to Murphy, showcasing his aggressive striking capabilities.

Striking Accuracy

  • Edson Barboza: 45%
  • Lerone Murphy: 50%

Murphy edges out Barboza in striking accuracy, making his strikes more likely to land effectively.

Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute

  • Edson Barboza: 4.34
  • Lerone Murphy: 2.4

Barboza absorbs more strikes per minute, which could be a critical factor if Murphy capitalizes on this defensive gap.


Striking Defense

  • Edson Barboza: 57%
  • Lerone Murphy: 56%

Both fighters have similar striking defense, but Barboza has a slight edge in avoiding strikes.

Takedown Average per 15 Minutes

  • Edson Barboza: 0.48
  • Lerone Murphy: 0.56

Murphy averages more takedowns, suggesting he might look to bring the fight to the ground.

Takedown Accuracy

  • Edson Barboza: 50%
  • Lerone Murphy: 46%

Barboza is slightly more accurate with his takedowns, making him a bit more reliable in grappling situations.

Takedown Defense

  • Edson Barboza: 75%
  • Lerone Murphy: 46%

Barboza’s superior takedown defense could thwart Murphy’s attempts to dominate on the ground.

Submission Average per 15 Minutes

  • Edson Barboza: 0.1
  • Lerone Murphy: 0.9

Murphy has a higher submission average, indicating a greater threat in submission scenarios.

Fighter ELO Ratings

  • Edson Barboza: 1526.57
  • Lerone Murphy: 1575.63

Murphy holds a higher ELO rating, suggesting he is currently the more dominant fighter.

UFC Betting Model Predictions

ELO UFC Betting Model Probability

  • Edson Barboza: 42.99%
  • Lerone Murphy: 57.01%

Logistic Regression UFC Betting Model Probability

  • Edson Barboza: 39.44%
  • Lerone Murphy: 60.56%

Both models favor Murphy to win, indicating a higher probability of victory based on statistical analysis.

Important Info about UFC Betting Model

The power of the UFC betting model from Underdog Chance member Eric lies in the agreement between the ELO model and the Logistic regression model, especially when the odds are between 1.50 and 3.0 (in US odds -200 and +200). When both models agree, it enhances the confidence in the prediction.

Recommended UFC Fight Pick

Based on Eric’s UFC Fight Predictions Betting Model Analysis, the recommended pick for this fight is:

Lerone Murphy to win


Using the EDSON BARBOZA vs LERONE MURPHY UFC prediction can help guide your betting decisions, but it’s essential to never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. For final and accurate UFC picks, learn to use statistics in betting and stay updated with the latest MMA news. Always shop for the best UFC betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions if you bet on UFC. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, and gain the knowledge to build your own betting model to become a long-term winner, please check out my sports betting courses.

This comprehensive analysis not only provides the necessary insights into the fight but also equips you with the knowledge to make informed betting decisions. Stay sharp, stay informed, and may the best fighter win!

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