Welcome to my MLB betting model projections and predictions. In this post, we will analyze the upcoming match between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Boston Red Sox. Additionally, I will provide an AI ChatGPT prediction for this game. This Dodgers vs Red Sox prediction is made using my private spreadsheets and the best bets, MLB picks, MLB predictions, and MLB odds available.
Betting Odds
The betting odds are set as follows:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: US odds -130, Decimal odds 1.77
- Boston Red Sox: US odds 120, Decimal odds 2.2
The match is scheduled for August 26, 2023, at the Fenway Park.
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Team Statistics
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers have played 127 games so far. Their statistics are as follows:
- Runs/Game (R/G): 5.61 (Rank 2)
- Home Runs (HR): 197 (Rank 3)
- Runs Batted In (RBI): 689 (Rank 3)
- Stolen Bases (SB): 79 (Rank 21)
- Batting Average (BA): 0.253 (Rank 13)
- On-Base Percentage (OBP): 0.338 (Rank 2)
- Slugging Percentage (SLG): 0.454 (Rank 3)
- On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.792 (Rank 3)
- On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): 112 (Rank 100)
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have played 129 games this season. Their statistics are as follows:
- Runs/Game (R/G): 4.98 (Rank 6)
- Home Runs (HR): 151 (Rank 18)
- Runs Batted In (RBI): 615 (Rank 6)
- Stolen Bases (SB): 89 (Rank 18)
- Batting Average (BA): 0.265 (Rank 3)
- On-Base Percentage (OBP): 0.331 (Rank 4)
- Slugging Percentage (SLG): 0.438 (Rank 5)
- On-base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.769 (Rank 5)
- On-base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): 105 (Rank 100)
Starting Pitchers
The starting pitchers for this game are:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Julio Urias (L) with 11 wins, 6 losses, 19 games started, ERA of 4.15, K/9 of 8.8, BB/9 of 1.78, WHIP of 1.09, xFIP of 4.1, xERA of 3.92, GB/FB of 0.85, and SIERA of 3.9.
- Boston Red Sox: James Paxton (L) with 7 wins, 4 losses, 17 games started, ERA of 3.79, K/9 of 9.66, BB/9 of 2.59, WHIP of 1.22, xFIP of 3.78, xERA of 3.5, GB/FB of 1.11, and SIERA of 3.87.
Bullpen Rankings
My bullpen rankings out of 30 teams are:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: 16
- Boston Red Sox: 6
MLB Betting Model Prediction
According to my MLB betting model, the projected win percentages and odds are as follows:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: Projected MLB model win% 48.96%, Projected US odds 104, Projected decimal odds 2.04
- Boston Red Sox: Projected MLB model win% 51.04%, Projected US odds -104, Projected decimal odds 1.96
- Projected Over Under – total runs for the full game: 10.49
Based on my MLB betting model predictions and betting analysis, the full game moneyline value is on the Boston Red Sox. However, there is no qualified bet for the first half betting.
Best Underdog Bet
The best underdog bet is the Boston Red Sox (Paxton) at +120.
AI ChatGPT Prediction
Now, let’s provide an additional AI prediction based on all the information available and compared to sportsbook betting odds. Remember, this AI prediction is independent of my MLB betting model and is my prediction based on available stats and compared to sportsbook odds.
The bookies odds are:
- Los Angeles Dodgers: -130 (1.77)
- Boston Red Sox: 120 (2.2)
Given the available statistics and the performance of the starting pitchers, my AI prediction leans towards a Boston Red Sox win. The Dodgers have a slight edge in terms of offensive statistics, but the Red Sox have a stronger bullpen, and James Paxton has a better statistical performance this season compared to Julio Urias. Additionally, the betting model also suggests a slight edge for the Red Sox.
Therefore, I believe there is value in betting on the Boston Red Sox at +120.
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Conclusion
In conclusion, this Dodgers vs Red Sox prediction suggests that the Boston Red Sox have a slight edge in this match-up. Both teams have strong offenses, but the Red Sox have a stronger bullpen and a slightly better starting pitcher for this game. Therefore, the best bet for this game would be on the Boston Red Sox at +120.
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