This is Dodgers vs Padres prediction and betting analysis backed by my baseball betting model.
Tuesday, September 27, 2022
Petco Park, San Diego, 9:40 PM ET
The Los Angeles Dodgers are the best team in baseball and have already secured their spot in the playoffs. The San Diego Padres, on the other hand, are still fighting for a Wild Card spot. They have two more wins than the Philadelphia Phillies and three more wins than the Milwaukee Brewers.
Both teams will be looking to put on a good show for their fans on Tuesday, September 27th, 2022. The Dodgers will be looking to cement their status as the best team in baseball, while the Padres will be looking to prove that they belong in the playoffs. Let’s check the whole prediction, recommended MLB picks and possible best bets.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres Matchup
San Diego Padres are sitting at 85-68 record and have been pretty good at home with the record of 40-32. Los Angeles Dodgers on the other side are 106-47 this season and they, playing well both on the road and at home.
- Dodgers -116
- Padres +107
- Over/Under Line 7
The Dodgers are a small away favorites of -116, while the Padres are a small home underdog today. Sportsbooks set the total at 7 runs.
Pitching matchup: Tyler Anderson vs Blake Snell
Left-handed pitcher Tyler Anderson will face (also lefty) Blake Snell. Here is a breakdown of pitching metrics and stats between these two pitchers:
Blake Snell (8-9, 3.62 ERA) is coming to this game after his amazing performance versus St Louis Cardinals. He went 7 scoreless innings at home where he allowed only 2 hits. His team needs him now again against another great team.
What a performance by Blake Snell tonight! 👏 pic.twitter.com/imoj1jKsSS— FOX Sports: MLB (@MLBONFOX) September 22, 2022
Tyler Anderson (15-4, 2.52 ERA) on the other side is coming to this game after he lost against Arizona, despite he finished with good ERA.
We have two good left handed pitchers on the mound. Both pitchers have also good numbers against today’s opponents. Tyler Anderson is 2-0 with ERA of 1.50 against Padres and Blake Snell is 1-1 against Dodgers with ERA 2.86.
But taking into account home field advantage, the motivation and other metrics, like strikeouts per inning, xFiP, FiP or SIERA, I think Padres will have small advantage against the Dodgers today.
Dodgers have one of the best bullpens in the league. I rank them among top 3 in the league, while San Diego Padres are 11th best in the league.
With very strong pitching stuff from both teams, batting will be very important part of the game.
Los Angeles Dodgers score 5.46 runs per game this season and they are the best scoring team in the league. San Diego scores 4.49 runs per game this season.
However, lately things are little bit different, because we have one team which is already in playoffs and they will also likely save some energy for the playoffs. Los Angeles score 3.95 runs per game in last 10 games and only 2.90.
Note that they will face a good left handed pitcher, who has good numbers against them with motivated team behind him.
San Diego Padres are getting better lately. They score 5.56 runs per game and 7.47 against left handed pitchers. If they can stay hot at this time of the season, I think we can have a hotter team with Padres tonight.
MLB betting model prediction
Considering all the factors, my MLB betting model gives San Diego Padres 58.71% of chance in this game, with fair odds:
- Betting model odds on Dodgers +142
- Betting model odds on Padres -142
- Projected runs: 8.27
Interesting betting trends
Important: When it comes to making predictions about MLB games, it’s important to keep in mind that betting trends are not the best indicator of what will happen. They have very little or none predictive power and should be taken with caution. However, they can be useful in seeing some interesting angles.
- Los Angeles Dodgers won 7 out of 9 games in San Diego versus Padres
- Over was in 6 straight games between these two teams
- San Diego Padres are 15-2 in last 17 after they had a day off
- Padres went Over in 11 out of 12 games vs left handed pitcher
Recommended Picks and Best Bets
Los Angeles Dodgers are without a doubt a better team here. But we are not trying to predict the winner of the game, but where is the value based on our predicted winning percentages and bookmakers odds.
While my sports betting model gives small advantage to Padres, bookies have them as a small underdog. Betting on the underdog at plus money in this case is a value for me here.
San Diego is playing for a playoff spot and they will give 100% today. There is only couple of games left and all these games are super important, before they don’t secure a spot. They are playing well at this moment. In fact they are red hot in hitting and especially against left handed pitchers.
Tyler Anderson has superb ERA, but all other metrics show that it might be too high and it will be interesting to see him against Padres tonight.
My best bet would be San Diego Padres to win first five innings:
- San Diego Padres F5 +104
Other recommended picks in this game:
- San Diego Padres +107
- Over 7
In order to maximize profits, it’s important to shop around for the best lines and take advantage of any other advantages offered by sportsbooks.
Play responsibly and never follow blindly anyone. Always make your own research before you make actual bets. I also recommend to learn how sports betting works, and how to use numbers in betting, before you risk any of your money.