Dodgers vs Padres Prediction

Looking for a Dodgers vs Padres Prediction? The MLB betting model gives the Dodgers a 61.92% probability of winning. With Tyler Glasnow on the mound, the Dodgers’ powerful offense poses a tough challenge for Michael King and the Padres on Friday, May 10, 2024.


In this highly anticipated Dodgers vs Padres Prediction matchup, Tyler Glasnow and Michael King will battle on the mound at Petco Park. With an MLB betting model probability favoring the Dodgers, their powerful lineup and superior pitching suggest a challenging night for the Padres on Friday, May 10, 2024.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Los Angeles Dodgers – Decimal Odds: 1.57 | US Odds: -175
  • Home Team: San Diego Padres – Decimal Odds: 2.38 | US Odds: 138 | Ballpark: Petco Park

Note: Odds can vary, so always compare the best MLB odds across sportsbooks for the most accurate betting strategy.

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Starting Pitcher Analysis

Los Angeles Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.7
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 2.73
  • xFIP: 2.57
  • K/9: 11.34
  • BB/9: 2.34
  • WHIP: 0.92
  • GB/FB: 1.24
  • xERA: 2.43

San Diego Padres: Michael King

  • Hand: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.96
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.29
  • xFIP: 4.22
  • K/9: 8.84
  • BB/9: 4.19
  • WHIP: 1.34
  • GB/FB: 0.98

Pitching Comparison:
Tyler Glasnow’s advanced metrics indicate superior control and strikeout ability compared to Michael King. Glasnow’s WHIP of 0.92 highlights his efficiency at keeping baserunners to a minimum, while King struggles with a higher BB/9 rate.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Ranked 19th
  • San Diego Padres: Ranked 18th

Both teams have similarly ranked bullpens, so expect the starting pitchers’ performance to weigh heavily on the final outcome.

Offensive Matchup

  • Los Angeles Dodgers:
  • Overall Rank: 1
  • Rank vs LHP: 6
  • Rank vs RHP: 1
  • San Diego Padres:
  • Overall Rank: 8
  • Rank vs LHP: 24
  • Rank vs RHP: 3

Offensive Comparison:
The Dodgers’ offense, with the top ranking overall and against right-handed pitching, suggests a consistent ability to score. The Padres, despite their strong rank against right-handed pitchers, have a glaring weakness against lefties.

Dodgers vs Padres Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Dodgers vs Padres Prediction

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (Tyler Glasnow): Probability: 61.92% | Projected US Odds: -163 | Projected Decimal Odds: 1.62
  • San Diego Padres (Michael King): Probability: 38.07% | Projected US Odds: 163 | Projected Decimal Odds: 2.63

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our Betting Model Analysis

  • Side: Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Pitcher: Tyler Glasnow
  • Odds: -175
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.49 (No Value, Just Bold Opinion)

The MLB model analysis favors the Dodgers with Glasnow on the mound but indicates no value from a strict betting perspective.

Conclusion for Dodgers vs Padres Prediction

This Dodgers vs Padres Prediction can help guide your MLB betting strategy, but remember to always shop around for the best MLB betting odds and capitalize on available promotions. For deeper insights into betting models, explore my sports betting courses to bet more like a professional.

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