Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction

Explore our detailed Dodgers vs Nationals prediction featuring MLB betting model insights. With a 52.46% probability for the Dodgers and 47.53% for the Nationals, our analysis reveals potential value in backing the Nationals at +175 odds. Dive into the stats and secure the best value bets today!


In today’s Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction, we dive deep into the pitching matchup of James Paxton for the Los Angeles Dodgers against Patrick Corbin of the Washington Nationals. This game, scheduled for April 23, 2024, at Nationals Park, showcases a distinct contrast in pitching styles and effectiveness that will likely influence the outcome. Let’s analyze the odds, pitching stats, and team performance to guide our predictions and betting strategies.

Game Overview

Date and Venue

  • Date: April 23, 2024
  • Venue: Nationals Park

Betting Odds Snapshot

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Decimal Odds: 1.44 | US Odds: -227
  • Washington Nationals: Decimal Odds: 2.75 | US Odds: +175

Note: Odds may change, so it’s advisable to check for the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

James Paxton (Los Angeles Dodgers)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 2.81
  • Advanced Stats: SIERA: 6.81, xFIP: 6.03, K/9: 5.63, BB/9: 7.88, WHIP: 1.5, GB/FB: 1.18, xERA: 5.12

Patrick Corbin (Washington Nationals)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 8.06
  • Advanced Stats: SIERA: 4.52, xFIP: 4.16, K/9: 6.04, BB/9: 3.22, WHIP: 1.97, GB/FB: 2, xERA: 6.62


Comparing the pitchers, James Paxton shows a stronger ERA but his underlying metrics like SIERA and xFIP suggest potential vulnerabilities. Patrick Corbin, despite a high ERA, shows a somewhat more favorable xFIP and SIERA, indicating that he might be performing slightly better than traditional stats would suggest.

Team Performance and Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: 16th
  • Washington Nationals: 17th

Offensive Matchup

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Overall Rank: 3, Rank vs LHP: 13, Rank vs RHP: 4
  • Washington Nationals: Overall Rank: 18, Rank vs LHP: 26, Rank vs RHP: 7

The Dodgers have a significantly stronger offensive lineup, especially against right-handers, although they face a left-hander in this game. The Nationals struggle offensively, particularly against left-handed pitching.

Betting Model Insights

Probability and Projected Odds

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (James Paxton): Probability: 52.46%, Projected US Odds: -110, Projected Decimal Odds: 1.91
  • Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin): Probability: 47.53%, Projected US Odds: +110, Projected Decimal Odds: 2.10
Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Washington Nationals (Patrick Corbin)
  • Odds: +175
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 1.75
  • Confidence: Good value

The betting model suggests a closer game than the odds imply, making the Nationals a valuable pick at their current odds.

Conclusion: Dodgers vs Nationals Prediction

For your Dodgers vs Nationals prediction, consider the value offered by the Nationals due to the odds disparity and their underlying stats against left-handed pitchers. Always ensure to shop around for the best odds and take advantage of any available promotions. Remember, use predictions as a guide and rely on your own analysis or consult professional betting models for informed decisions.

Stay tuned to our “MLB Picks” page for final best MLB bets and first-half picks. If you’re interested in making your own betting projections, consider accessing our MLB Betting Model available in Google Sheets. Always bet responsibly and enjoy the game!

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