Dodgers vs Mets Prediction

Our MLB betting model for the Dodgers vs Mets prediction on May 27, 2024, shows a slight edge for the Dodgers with a 53.33% win probability. However, the value pick is the Mets at +130 odds, presenting solid betting value according to our adjusted Kelly Criterion. Bet smart, shop for the best odds!


The upcoming game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets on Monday, May 27, 2024, promises to be a thrilling matchup. In our Dodgers vs Mets Prediction, we analyze the key factors that could influence the outcome, including starting pitchers Gavin Stone and Tylor Megill, advanced stats, and betting model probabilities.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Match Overview

For the upcoming clash between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Mets, the betting odds present an interesting landscape for bettors. The Dodgers are favored with odds of 1.62 (-161 US odds), while the Mets are underdogs at 2.30 (+130 US odds). This game will be held at Citi Field, and it’s crucial to always check various sportsbooks for the best MLB odds as they can fluctuate.

Starting Pitchers Comparison

Los Angeles Dodgers: Gavin Stone

Gavin Stone, the right-handed pitcher for the Dodgers, brings an ERA of 3.6 into this matchup. Stone’s advanced MLB stats provide a deeper insight into his performance:

  • SIERA: 4.62
  • xFIP: 4.26
  • K/9: 6.12
  • BB/9: 3.06
  • WHIP: 1.3
  • GB/FB: 1.35
  • xERA: 4.37

New York Mets: Tylor Megill

On the mound for the Mets, Tylor Megill, another right-handed pitcher, has an ERA of 3.0. His advanced metrics are as follows:

  • SIERA: 4.1
  • xFIP: 4.57
  • K/9: 11
  • BB/9: 5
  • WHIP: 1.33
  • GB/FB: 0.5
  • xERA: 4.14
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Bullpen Matchup

Bullpen Rankings

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Ranked 12th
  • New York Mets: Ranked 6th

The Mets’ bullpen ranks significantly higher, which could play a pivotal role in the later innings of the game.

Offensive Matchup

Overall and Split Rankings

Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Overall Rank: 1
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 5
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 3

New York Mets

  • Overall Rank: 13
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 21
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 11

The Dodgers boast the best overall offense, with strong performances against both left and right-handed pitchers. The Mets’ offense is less potent, especially against left-handed pitchers.

MLB Betting Model Analysis

Probability and Projected Odds

Los Angeles Dodgers (Gavin Stone)

  • Baseball Betting Model Probability: 53.33%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: -114
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 1.88

New York Mets (Tylor Megill)

  • Baseball Betting Model Probability: 46.66%
  • MLB Model Projected US odds: 114
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal odds: 2.14
Dodgers vs Mets Prediction

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick for this game is the New York Mets with Tylor Megill at odds of +130. The adjusted Kelly Criterion value of 0.56 indicates solid value for this bet.

Conclusion: Dodgers vs Mets Prediction

In conclusion, our Dodgers vs Mets Prediction suggests that while the Dodgers are favored, the value lies with the Mets for this particular matchup. Always use our predictions as a guide and never follow anyone’s sports picks blindly. Ensure to shop around for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season.

For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check our “MLB Picks” page or access our MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own projections. Betting analytically with sports betting models can help you bet like a pro.

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