Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Explore our MLB betting model’s insights for the Dodgers vs Diamondbacks game on April 29, 2024. The model favors the Diamondbacks with a 54.80% win probability, projecting them at -121 US odds, making them a valuable pick against the Dodgers. Always verify current odds before placing bets.


In this comprehensive analysis of the upcoming MLB game on Monday, April 29, 2024, we delve into the “Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction,” featuring a pitching duel between James Paxton of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Tommy Henry of the Arizona Diamondbacks. This game is set to take place at Chase Field and presents some intriguing aspects for bettors and baseball fans alike.

Game Overview

Teams and Starting Pitchers

  • Away Team: Los Angeles Dodgers
  • Starting Pitcher: James Paxton
  • Pitcher’s Hand: Left
  • ERA: 2.61
  • Home Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Starting Pitcher: Tommy Henry
  • Pitcher’s Hand: Left
  • ERA: 5.55
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Sportsbook Odds

  • Decimal Odds:
  • Dodgers: 1.67
  • Diamondbacks: 2.25
  • US Odds:
  • Dodgers: -149
  • Diamondbacks: +125

Pitching Matchup Analysis

James Paxton vs. Tommy Henry

James Paxton shows a strong presence on the mound with an ERA of 2.61, but his deeper metrics like a SIERA of 6.9 and xFIP of 6.19 suggest potential underperformance. His K/9 rate stands at 4.79, paired with a high BB/9 rate of 7.4, indicating control issues. In contrast, Tommy Henry, despite a higher ERA of 5.55, has better control and strikeout metrics with a K/9 of 8.88 and a BB/9 of 3.33. His xFIP of 3.8 and SIERA of 3.89 are considerably better than Paxton’s, suggesting a potentially underrated performance level.

Team Bullpen and Offensive Comparison

Bullpen Strength

  • Los Angeles Dodgers: Ranked 9th
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Ranked 28th

Offensive Matchup

  • Overall Rank:
  • Dodgers: 2nd
  • Diamondbacks: 6th
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers:
  • Dodgers: 10th
  • Diamondbacks: 1st
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers:
  • Dodgers: 1st
  • Diamondbacks: 23rd
Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

According to our proprietary MLB betting model:

  • Los Angeles Dodgers (James Paxton): 45.17% probability
  • Model Projected US Odds: +121
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.21
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry): 54.80% probability
  • Model Projected US Odds: -121
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.82

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on the analysis, the Arizona Diamondbacks show good value on the moneyline with odds at +125. The adjusted Kelly Criterion value of 1.86 indicates a strong betting opportunity with “good value” confidence.

Conclusion: Dodgers vs Diamondbacks Prediction

In conclusion, the Dodgers vs Diamondbacks prediction points towards a competitive and nuanced game. While the Dodgers boast a stronger bullpen and overall team ranking, the Diamondbacks, under Tommy Henry’s pitching, present a valuable betting opportunity due to favorable metrics and home advantage. Always ensure to check the latest MLB odds at various sportsbooks and consider any updates or changes before placing bets. For those interested in making informed betting decisions, consider accessing detailed MLB betting models and sports betting courses available online.

For final best MLB bets and insights, please visit our “MLB Picks” page or learn to create your own projections using our MLB betting model available on Google Sheets. Remember, use Dodgers vs Diamondbacks predictions as guidance but never blindly follow predictions; always shop for the best odds and take advantage of ongoing promotions.

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