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The difference between sports picks and betting model predictions

Sports picks tell us only which side to bet on, but predictions based on sports betting models tell us how much, when, and for which price to bet.

Most sports handicappers share only sports picks, which are very popular search on the internet among online sports bettors all around the World. But sports picks are in most cases flawed information on what to bet.

Very few sports handicappers use betting algorithms, sports betting models, and well-defined betting systems that can tell us how much to bet on a game, what is the projected probability of winning, and what are the last odds still worth paying. This way of betting and providing betting advice is about bet numbers and predictions, which gives more comprehensive info about a wager.

A simple analogy and explanation for sports picks

​Let’s say, that someone tells you: “Mercedes is a very good car. Go now and buy a Mercedes for $40.000. Then sell it with a profit”

You decide that you will buy this car. But when you want to buy a Mercedes, the price jumped to $46.000.

Will you buy it or not?

You don’t know, because you don’t know the true value of Mercedes and you have no idea how to identify the true value of this car.

This is a pick, which will not tell us if this is a good buy or not. Similar to sports picks that are insufficient information about what to bet on and how much.

The concept of making money in sports betting with sports picks and buying a car in terms of profit has many similarities. Buying things, that are overpriced, will lead to a loss. Betting on a sports pick without detailed bet numbers is bold guessing and will lead to a loss.

Sports picks examples:

  • Bet on Lakers -7 (1 unit)
  • Bet on Boston Red Sox +124 (3 units)
  • Bet on Real Madrid @1.78 (1.5 units)

The problem of moving odds with sports picks

The problem with sports betting odds is that they are moving and because of that sports picks need much more information.

What will you do, if you follow someone and you get those prices:

  • ​Bookmaker: Lakers -8
  • Bookmaker: Boston Red Sox +110
  • Bookmaker: Real Madrid @1.97

Would you bet on these games at these prices or you don’t care? Would you buy a car if the price moves from $40,000 to $46,000 or not?

You don’t know, because you don’t have betting projections, that will answer exactly what we need to take the betting action.

Predictions based on algorithms

If you bet on numbers-based predictions, you are focusing on the price you are paying in the betting market. These bet numbers predictions are most of the time presented as betting model projections.

What are betting projections?

Sports betting projections will tell you the price that is still worth paying. Bet projections tell you your projected winning percentages, your spreads, and your totals. They are always calculated in different betting systems, betting models or by using bet algorithms based on numbers.

The basic concept to win at sports betting is to bet on games, where you estimate a better winning percentage (or spreads, totals) than a bookmaker.

Example of betting projections

​Projected spread on Lakers = -12
Projected Boston +160
Projected Real Madrid 1.30

What tell us these bet number predictions?

  • A value bet is with the Lakers if you get Lakers -11 or better (-10, -9, -8,…depends on the betting model and method)
  • Value bet is with the Boston for the price of +161 or more (depends on the method and betting criteria)
  • A value bet is with Real Madrid for the price of 1.31 or better (depends on the method and betting criteria)

Using a simple betting analogy on Boston’s example will tell me, that I am willing to bet on Boston only if someone (bookmaker) will pay me at least $160 for my every risked $100.

(…will buy a Mercedes if the price is $41.345 or better)

But, if the bookmaker will pays me only $110 (the odds of +110), I will not bet on Boston, because I will pay too much.

Final thoughts

Paying too much means losing money. Betting on the wrong price means losing money.

Sports handicappers releasing sports picks like “Boston +124” is simply not good information, because the odds are changing and you never know if you are paying the good or bad price and where is that line.

Sports picks that are not based on numbers and without projections are almost useless. Betting without previously projecting the winning percentages, is nothing else than – guessing.

Some handicappers might guess well and even identify value bets even without using predictions and numbers, but at the end of the day, if you follow them, you will not know when you should bet the game or when you should stay away.

Sports picks will tell us what side to bet on.
Betting predictions that are based on sports betting models will tell us for which price you should bet something. And the price is the key!

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