Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Diamondbacks a 60.63% probability of winning over the Reds on May 7, 2024. With Zac Gallen on the mound, Arizona offers strong value at -125 odds. Make the most of this Diamondbacks vs Reds prediction to bet strategically and leverage good value confidently.


Introduction

As the Arizona Diamondbacks and Cincinnati Reds gear up for their matchup on Tuesday, May 7, 2024, all eyes will be on the mound duel between Zac Gallen and Frankie Montas. For those betting on this highly anticipated game, we’ve got a comprehensive Diamondbacks vs Reds prediction that digs into both starting pitchers’ advanced stats, offensive comparisons, and bullpen rankings to provide expert analysis.

Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

  • Ballpark: Great American Ball Park
  • Away Team: Arizona Diamondbacks (1.80 Decimal, -125 US)
  • Home Team: Cincinnati Reds (2.00 Decimal, 100 US)

Note: Betting odds can change. Always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

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Starting Pitchers Analysis

Zac Gallen (Arizona Diamondbacks)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 3.38
  • SIERA: 3.33
  • xFIP: 3.17
  • K/9: 9.84
  • BB/9: 2.53
  • WHIP: 1.22
  • GB/FB: 1.28
  • xERA: 3.97

Zac Gallen is a consistent performer for the Diamondbacks, boasting solid control over the mound. His xFIP (3.17) and SIERA (3.33) suggest his ERA aligns well with his performance, while a strong K/9 (9.84) and low BB/9 (2.53) ratio highlight his ability to maintain composure and limit walks.

Frankie Montas (Cincinnati Reds)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.19
  • SIERA: 5.13
  • xFIP: 4.77
  • K/9: 6.52
  • BB/9: 4.66
  • WHIP: 1.45
  • GB/FB: 1.19
  • xERA: 4.14

Frankie Montas has struggled this season, with a high SIERA (5.13) and xFIP (4.77), indicating an inflated ERA. His elevated BB/9 (4.66) indicates a lack of command, making it challenging to maintain control over games. Additionally, his WHIP (1.45) shows that he allows too many baserunners.

Bullpen Matchup

  • Arizona Diamondbacks Bullpen Rank: 29
  • Cincinnati Reds Bullpen Rank: 11

While Gallen gives the Diamondbacks a strong starting presence, their bullpen has been one of the weakest, ranking 29th in the league. The Reds, on the other hand, maintain a more reliable bullpen, ranking 11th, which could play a crucial role in the later innings.

Offensive Matchup

  • Arizona Diamondbacks Overall Rank: 9
  • vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 1
  • vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 24
  • Cincinnati Reds Overall Rank: 28
  • vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 24
  • vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 27

The Diamondbacks’ offense ranks in the top ten overall and is particularly lethal against left-handed pitching. However, they have struggled against right-handers, which could pose challenges against Montas. The Reds’ offensive production has been lackluster overall, ranking 28th, and they also struggle against right-handed pitching.

Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen): 60.63% (-154 US, 1.65 Decimal)
  • Cincinnati Reds (Frankie Montas): 39.37% (154 US, 2.54 Decimal)

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model, the Diamondbacks are the recommended pick. Zac Gallen offers good value with odds at -125, backed by a 60.63% winning probability according to our model.

  • Side: Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Pitcher: Zac Gallen
  • Odds: -125
  • Confidence: Good Value (Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 1.14)

Conclusion: Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

In our Diamondbacks vs Reds prediction, Zac Gallen’s consistency and the Diamondbacks’ stronger offensive performance make them the better value pick over Frankie Montas and the Reds. However, betting should never be done blindly, so always compare sportsbooks for the best odds and take advantage of bonuses. For final MLB picks and more advanced betting strategies, check out our MLB betting model and sports betting courses.

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