Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

The MLB betting model for the Diamondbacks vs Reds prediction gives Cincinnati a slight edge with a 50.73% win probability over Arizona’s 49.27%. With Hunter Greene on the mound for the Reds, the matchup against Slade Cecconi promises a tight contest that should offer intriguing betting value.


As the Arizona Diamondbacks face off against the Cincinnati Reds at Great American Ball Park on Thursday, May 9, 2024, the Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction promises to offer valuable insight for sports bettors looking to make an informed wager. In this matchup, right-handed pitchers Slade Cecconi of the Diamondbacks and Hunter Greene of the Reds will duel it out. Let’s delve into each team’s odds and advanced statistics to analyze the best potential betting value.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

Away Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
Decimal Odds: 2.00
US Odds: +100

Home Team: Cincinnati Reds
Decimal Odds: 1.81
US Odds: -123
Ballpark: Great American Ball Park

Odds are subject to change. Ensure that you always check different sportsbooks for the most favorable MLB betting odds.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Arizona Diamondbacks: Slade Cecconi (RHP)

  • ERA: 4.96
  • SIERA: 3.52
  • xFIP: 3.85
  • K/9: 8.27
  • BB/9: 1.65
  • WHIP: 0.8
  • GB/FB: 0.81
  • xERA: 2.35

Cincinnati Reds: Hunter Greene (RHP)

  • ERA: 3.12
  • SIERA: 3.6
  • xFIP: 4.08
  • K/9: 10.49
  • BB/9: 3.57
  • WHIP: 1.17
  • GB/FB: 0.73
  • xERA: 2.42

Both pitchers have impressive stats. Cecconi maintains good control with a low BB/9, while Greene’s high strikeout rate (K/9) stands out, though his BB/9 is considerably higher. The WHIP difference between the two suggests that Cecconi might allow fewer baserunners, while Greene’s strikeout potential could be a key differentiator.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Ranked 25th
  • Cincinnati Reds: Ranked 10th

The Reds bullpen is notably stronger, providing the home team with a significant edge in late-game situations.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

  • Arizona Diamondbacks:
  • Overall Rank: 10
  • Rank vs. LHP: 1
  • Rank vs. RHP: 25
  • Cincinnati Reds:
  • Overall Rank: 27
  • Rank vs. LHP: 24
  • Rank vs. RHP: 27

The Diamondbacks excel against left-handed pitching but struggle against right-handed pitchers like Greene, while the Reds offense faces challenges regardless of the pitching hand.

Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

Betting Model Analysis & Probabilities

Arizona Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi):

  • Probability: 49.27%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: +103
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.03

Cincinnati Reds (Hunter Greene):

  • Probability: 50.73%
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds: -103
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.97

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline Value: Arizona Diamondbacks (Slade Cecconi) at +100
Confidence Level: No significant value, but a bold opinion on the Diamondbacks

Our betting model sees the Reds as slight favorites. However, with the Diamondbacks having a more favorable Kelly Criterion value despite limited confidence, this game may offer value for those who favor Cecconi over Greene.

Note: For final MLB bets and first-half picks, check the “MLB Picks” page or get the MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

Conclusion: Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

Use the Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction to inform your wager, but always shop around for the best MLB betting odds and bonuses. Sports betting models are a great way to analyze games professionally and learn to bet analytically. For those looking to bet like a pro, consider taking sports betting courses to refine your skills and improve your betting strategies.

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