Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

The MLB betting model predicts the Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft) have a 51.15% probability of beating the Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery) with projected odds of -105. This matchup offers a “tiny value” pick for the Reds, who possess a stronger bullpen and a slight advantage on the mound.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Decimal Odds – 1.85 | US Odds – -118
  • Cincinnati Reds: Decimal Odds – 2.05 | US Odds – 105
  • Venue: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Odds are dynamic and can shift as the game approaches, so ensure you explore multiple sportsbooks for the best MLB betting odds before placing your wagers.

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Starting Pitchers Breakdown

Arizona DiamondbacksJordan Montgomery (LHP)

Montgomery is a left-handed pitcher with an ERA of 5.63. His advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.95
  • xFIP: 4.63
  • K/9: 4.5
  • BB/9: 2.25
  • WHIP: 1.31
  • GB/FB: 1.2
  • xERA: 4.65

Cincinnati RedsGraham Ashcraft (RHP)

Ashcraft, a right-hander, brings a more consistent performance with an ERA of 3.63. His advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 3.68
  • xFIP: 3.47
  • K/9: 7.79
  • BB/9: 2.34
  • WHIP: 1.27
  • GB/FB: 1.78
  • xERA: 4.01

Comparative Analysis of Pitching Matchup

Ashcraft’s metrics consistently outshine Montgomery’s. He boasts a significantly higher strikeout rate and induces more ground balls, reflecting better control over opposing hitters. Montgomery’s struggles, particularly in limiting home runs, may pose a challenge at Great American Ball Park, a hitter-friendly venue.

Bullpen and Offensive Comparisons

Bullpen Rankings:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: 28th
  • Cincinnati Reds: 11th

Cincinnati holds a distinct advantage in the bullpen, providing reliable relief pitching to back up Ashcraft.

Offensive Rankings:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Overall – 28th | Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers – 2nd | Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers – 23rd
  • Cincinnati Reds: Overall – 3rd | Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers – 24th | Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers – 27th

While Cincinnati’s offense is formidable overall, they struggle against left-handed pitching, which aligns with Montgomery’s handedness. Arizona, however, excels against left-handed pitchers, a strength not fully utilized against the right-handed Ashcraft.

Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

Betting Model Projections

According to our MLB Betting Model, the predicted probabilities and projected odds for this game are:

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Jordan Montgomery): 48.85% | Projected US Odds – 105 | Projected Decimal Odds – 2.05
  • Cincinnati Reds (Graham Ashcraft): 51.15% | Projected US Odds – -105 | Projected Decimal Odds – 1.95

Recommended MLB Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Based on the MLB Betting Model analysis, the Reds are a strong pick with Ashcraft on the mound. The model indicates a slight edge for Cincinnati at 51.15% probability, and with a US Odds value of 105, they present a “tiny value” betting opportunity. Despite the tight margin, this is a free recommended pick.

Conclusion: Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction

Use the Diamondbacks vs Reds Prediction to guide your wagering decision but remember to shop around for the best MLB betting odds and capitalize on promotions. To enhance your betting strategy and make informed predictions, consider using a robust betting model or taking specialized courses.

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