Diamondbacks vs Orioles Prediction

The MLB betting model for the Diamondbacks vs Orioles Prediction gives Baltimore a 59.03% chance of winning against Arizona’s 40.96%. With Cole Irvin’s solid pitching and Baltimore’s strong bullpen, the model projects value in favor of the Orioles, making them the preferred pick at -139 odds.


The highly anticipated matchup between the Arizona Diamondbacks and the Baltimore Orioles will be held at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on Friday, May 10, 2024. The Diamondbacks vs Orioles Prediction pits Arizona’s right-handed pitcher Brandon Pfaadt against Baltimore’s left-handed Cole Irvin. This matchup is poised to be an intense showdown as both teams have key strengths and weaknesses that could tip the scales in their favor.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Away Team: Arizona Diamondbacks (Odds: 2.10 | +110)
  • Home Team: Baltimore Orioles (Odds: 1.72 | -139)
  • Ballpark: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
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Starting Pitchers Stats

  • Brandon Pfaadt (Arizona Diamondbacks)
  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.61
  • SIERA: 3.28
  • xFIP: 3.27
  • K/9: 9.22
  • BB/9: 1.32
  • WHIP: 1.2
  • GB/FB: 1.07
  • xERA: 3.34
  • Cole Irvin (Baltimore Orioles)
  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 2.86
  • SIERA: 4.13
  • xFIP: 3.96
  • K/9: 5.71
  • BB/9: 1.82
  • WHIP: 1.07
  • GB/FB: 1.62
  • xERA: 3.72

Comparative Analysis

While Brandon Pfaadt has a lower SIERA (3.28 vs. 4.13) and a higher strikeout rate (9.22 K/9 vs. 5.71 K/9) compared to Cole Irvin, his ERA is significantly higher, reflecting his struggles with consistency and situational pitching. On the other hand, Cole Irvin has the edge in ground ball-to-fly ball ratio, which could play an important role at Camden Yards.

Bullpen Matchup Rankings

  • Arizona Diamondbacks: 26th
  • Baltimore Orioles: 7th

The Orioles’ bullpen, ranked 7th, is a major advantage in this matchup, particularly in the late innings.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup Rankings

  • Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Overall: 11th
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 1st
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 25th
  • Baltimore Orioles
  • Overall: 2nd
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 2nd
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 8th

The Diamondbacks excel against left-handed pitchers, which could work to their advantage against Irvin. However, the Orioles are well-rounded offensively and can handle both left and right-handed pitching effectively.

Diamondbacks vs Orioles Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probabilities

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt)
  • Probability: 40.96%
  • Projected US Odds: +144
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 2.44
  • Baltimore Orioles (Cole Irvin)
  • Probability: 59.03%
  • Projected US Odds: -144
  • Projected Decimal Odds: 1.69

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Side: Baltimore Orioles
  • Pitcher: Cole Irvin
  • Odds: -139
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.21
  • Confidence: Tiny Value

The betting model identifies a slight value in the Orioles’ favor due to their stronger bullpen and balanced offense.

Conclusion: Diamondbacks vs Orioles Prediction

The Diamondbacks vs Orioles Prediction is a valuable tool, but don’t blindly follow any pick without doing your own research. Always look for the best MLB odds and promotions during the betting season. If you want to enhance your analytical betting skills, check out my sports betting courses.

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