Diamondbacks vs Mariners Prediction

Our MLB betting model predicts a 60.35% win probability for the Seattle Mariners over the Arizona Diamondbacks in their upcoming matchup. With Logan Gilbert leading, the Mariners are favored at -152 odds. This analysis provides a strategic edge for bettors seeking value in the Diamondbacks vs Mariners prediction.


In this detailed analysis of the Diamondbacks vs Mariners prediction for Sunday, April 28, 2024, we delve into various facets of the upcoming MLB game at T-Mobile Park. Featuring a starting pitching duel between Arizona’s Brandon Pfaadt and Seattle’s Logan Gilbert, this matchup promises significant insights for bettors. We’ll explore their pitching stats, team offensive capabilities, and our proprietary MLB betting model to determine the best betting angles.

Game Overview

Teams and Odds

  • Away Team: Arizona Diamondbacks, Odds: +120 (Decimal: 2.20)
  • Home Team: Seattle Mariners, Odds: -141 (Decimal: 1.71)
MB MLB 728x90 Jpg

Starting Pitcher Analysis

Brandon Pfaadt (Arizona Diamondbacks)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.97
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.64
  • xFIP: 3.76
  • K/9: 8.38
  • BB/9: 1.86
  • WHIP: 1.17
  • GB/FB: 0.94
  • xERA: 3.49

Logan Gilbert (Seattle Mariners)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 1.87
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.15
  • xFIP: 3.20
  • K/9: 9.36
  • BB/9: 2.14
  • WHIP: 0.80
  • GB/FB: 0.94
  • xERA: 3.51

Comparative Analysis

Bullpen Matchup

  • Arizona Diamondbacks Bullpen Rank: 29
  • Seattle Mariners Bullpen Rank: 7

Offensive Matchup

Arizona Diamondbacks

  • Overall Rank: 5
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 1
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 22

Seattle Mariners

  • Overall Rank: 16
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 17
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 14
Diamondbacks vs Mariners Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis

Probabilities and Projected Odds

  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt):
  • Probability: 39.65%
  • Model Projected US Odds: +152
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 2.52
  • Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert):
  • Probability: 60.35%
  • Model Projected US Odds: -152
  • Model Projected Decimal Odds: 1.66

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Seattle Mariners (Logan Gilbert)
  • Odds: -141
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 0.45
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Conclusion: Diamondbacks vs Mariners Prediction

In our analysis for the Diamondbacks vs Mariners prediction, it’s clear that while the Mariners, led by Logan Gilbert, hold a statistical advantage, particularly in bullpen quality and starter matchup, the value is modest. As always, ensure you’re getting the best possible odds by shopping around different sportsbooks, and remember that even the most accurate predictions should be just one component of your betting strategy. To refine your skills and approach betting with a strategic mindset, consider exploring sports betting courses that utilize analytical models.

Final Note

For definitive MLB picks and more detailed betting insights, remember to check our “MLB Picks” page or access our comprehensive MLB Betting Model in Google Sheets. Never follow any picks blindly—always complement them with your own research and the most updated odds.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.