Devils vs Maple Leafs

In our “Devils vs Maple Leafs Prediction,” the NHL betting model highlights a tightly contested affair, giving the Maple Leafs a 59.71% win probability. While the odds favor Toronto, the Devils’ 40.29% chance reflects their potential to upset. This matchup demands a nuanced betting strategy, advising caution and a keen eye for value in a game that promises both excitement and unpredictability.


As the NHL season progresses, betting enthusiasts and hockey fans alike turn their attention to the matchups that promise excitement and the potential for profit. Among these eagerly awaited games is the face-off between the New Jersey Devils and the Toronto Maple Leafs. This post, focusing on the “Devils vs Maple Leafs Prediction,” dives deep into the analytics, odds, and performances to offer a comprehensive guide for those looking to place informed bets on this thrilling encounter.


Game Info & Sportsbook Odds Overview

Before we delve into the analytical depths, it’s crucial to understand the current betting landscape. The Toronto Maple Leafs, playing at home, are favored with decimal odds of 1.68 (-147 US odds), reflecting their strong position this season. The New Jersey Devils, on the other hand, come in as underdogs with decimal odds of 2.22 (+122 US odds). However, the world of sports betting knows all too well that the underdog status often belies the potential for upsets and unexpected outcomes.

Analyzing the Teams: A Statistical Approach for Devils vs Maple Leafs Prediction

High Danger Chances per 60 Minutes

A key indicator of a team’s offensive threat and defensive robustness is their High Danger Chances for and against per 60 minutes (HDCF/60 and HDCA/60). The Devils rank 7th in HDCF/60 but 12th in HDCA/60, suggesting a balanced approach. The Maple Leafs, with a 4th rank in HDCF/60 and 13th in HDCA/60, show a slightly more aggressive offensive stance but similar defensive vulnerabilities.

Offensive and Defensive Matchups

The offensive prowess of both teams is undeniable, with the Maple Leafs averaging 3.79 goals per 60 minutes against the Devils’ 2.95. However, the Devils take more shots on average, indicating their ability to pressure opponents. Defensively, the Maple Leafs have a slight edge, conceding fewer goals and shots per 60 minutes compared to the Devils.

Underlying Metrics and Goalie Performance

Beyond goals and shots, advanced metrics like Corsi For Percentage (CF%) and Fenwick For Percentage (FF%) offer deeper insights. The Devils boast a CF% of 52.38 and an FF% of 51.83, suggesting better puck control and shot attempts than the Maple Leafs, who have a CF% of 49.31 and FF% of 50.29.

Goalie performance is another critical factor. Jake Allen for the Devils and Joseph Woll for the Maple Leafs present a closely matched scenario, with Woll having a slightly better save percentage. However, Allen faces a higher expected goals against, reflecting the defensive challenges the Devils might encounter.

NHL Betting Model Prediction

Devils vs Maple Leafs Prediction

The betting model gives the Maple Leafs a 59.71% win probability, suggesting a stronger likelihood of victory but not discounting the Devils’ chances at 40.29%. Such a close projection indicates that the game could swing either way, emphasizing the importance of nuanced analysis over reliance on odds alone.

Betting Strategy: The Calculated Approach

The adjusted Kelly Criterion, at 0.05, indicates a cautious betting approach for this game. With no bet qualifying as a strong recommendation, the emphasis shifts to seeking value in fluctuating odds and considering prop bets or alternative markets.

Conclusion: Weighing the Odds and Analytics

The “Devils vs Maple Leafs Prediction” paints a picture of a closely contested battle, with both teams showcasing strengths that could tip the scales in their favor. The Maple Leafs’ home advantage and offensive efficiency make them favorites, but the Devils’ balanced attack and resilience position them as formidable challengers. Betting on this game requires a strategic mindset, focusing on evolving odds, goalie confirmations, and the search for value beyond the surface-level favorites.

Remember, always shop for the best odds at reputable bookmakers, and consider this analysis as part of a broader strategy that includes form, injuries, and potential lineup changes. The world of NHL betting is as dynamic as the sport itself, rewarding those who approach it with insight, patience, and a keen eye for opportunity.

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.