DERRICK LEWIS vs RODRIGO NASCIMENTO UFC Prediction

Explore our expert UFC prediction for the Derrick Lewis vs Rodrigo Nascimento fight. Betting models show Nascimento at a higher advantage with a 62.73% ELO and 55.67% logistic regression probability, suggesting he’s the favorable pick in this matchup. Always verify stats and odds before placing your bets.


DERRICK LEWIS vs RODRIGO NASCIMENTO UFC Prediction

This upcoming UFC bout between Derrick Lewis and Rodrigo Nascimento is capturing the attention of MMA fans and bettors alike. Our focus in this analysis, based on insights from Eric, an esteemed member of the Underdog Chance Sports Betting Masterclass, is to dissect the DERRICK LEWIS vs RODRIGO NASCIMENTO UFC prediction to offer an in-depth look at both fighters’ chances.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Before diving into the detailed analysis, let’s review the odds provided by various sportsbooks for this fight scheduled for Saturday, May 11, 2024. Derrick Lewis enters as the away fighter with decimal odds of 1.70 (-143 in US odds), while Rodrigo Nascimento, fighting at home, has odds of 2.35 (+135 in US odds).

Note: Odds can change; it’s crucial to shop for the best UFC odds across different sportsbooks.

Fighter Comparison and Statistics

Derrick Lewis: The Powerhouse

  • Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 2.43
  • Striking Accuracy: 50%
  • Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 2.48
  • Striking Defense: 40%
  • Takedown Average per 15 Minutes: 0.53
  • Takedown Accuracy: 26%
  • Takedown Defense: 53%
  • Submission Average per 15 Minutes: 0

Rodrigo Nascimento: The Technical Fighter

  • Significant Strikes Landed per Minute: 4.31
  • Striking Accuracy: 48%
  • Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute: 4.76
  • Striking Defense: 43%
  • Takedown Average per 15 Minutes: 0.43
  • Takedown Accuracy: 33%
  • Takedown Defense: 77%
  • Submission Average per 15 Minutes: 0.7
DERRICK LEWIS vs RODRIGO NASCIMENTO UFC Prediction

UFC Betting Model Predictions

The ELO and logistic regression models used by Eric provide a sophisticated look into the likely outcomes of the fight:

  • Derrick Lewis:
  • ELO Model Probability: 37.27%
  • Logistic Regression Probability: 44.33%
  • Rodrigo Nascimento:
  • ELO Model Probability: 62.73%
  • Logistic Regression Probability: 55.67%

These models are particularly powerful when both agree, and the fighters’ odds are between 1.50 and 3.0 (or -200 to +200 in US odds).

Eric’s UFC Fight Predictions: Betting Model Analysis

Based on the analysis, the recommended UFC fight pick is Rodrigo Nascimento to win. The convergence of the ELO and logistic regression models suggests a stronger position for Nascimento, offering a compelling case for bettors.

Conclusion: DERRICK LEWIS vs RODRIGO NASCIMENTO UFC Prediction

While the DERRICK LEWIS vs RODRIGO NASCIMENTO UFC prediction can guide your betting decisions, it’s crucial not to follow any predictions blindly. Always use statistical insights as part of a broader strategy that includes checking the latest MMA news and shopping for the best UFC betting odds. For those interested in elevating their betting skills, consider exploring sports betting courses that focus on analytical, model-based approaches for long-term success.

Remember, whether you’re betting on this fight or any other, the key is informed, analytical decision-making coupled with continual learning and adaptation in your betting strategies.

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