Welcome to Our MLB Betting Analysis Delve deep into the world of MLB betting model projections, predictions, and insights from my exclusive spreadsheets.

In addition, we’re also serving up a special AI-powered prediction courtesy of ChatGPT for this intriguing game. Over a span of 4 months, my private MLB betting model boasts an impressive record, accumulating over 40 units. Notably, it’s conquered the closing line more than 70% of the time, with our best MLB bets smashing the line more than 90% of the instances, resulting in a positive CLV of +4.52%.

Cubs vs Pirates: Breaking Down the Odds

  • Betting Odds:
    • Chicago Cubs: US odds -114 | Decimal odds 1.88
    • Pittsburgh Pirates: US odds 105 | Decimal odds 2.05
  • Date: August 25, 2023
  • Venue: PNC Park

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Team Analysis

Chicago Cubs

  • Performance Metrics:
    • Games Played: 127
    • Runs Per Game (R/G): With an R/G of 5.05, the Cubs rank 5th in the league.
    • Home Runs (HR): At 154 HRs, they stand at 15th rank.
    • Runs Batted In (RBI): 614 RBI puts them in a commendable 6th position.
    • Stolen Bases (SB): Securing the 7th rank with 109 SBs.
    • Batting Average (BA): With 0.254, they’re 10th in the league.
    • On-Base Percentage (OBP): 0.33 OBP gets them the 7th position.
    • Slugging Percentage (SLG): They’re 12th with a 0.419 SLG.
    • On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS): 0.749 OPS for a 9th rank.
    • On-Base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): Scoring 99, they’re ranked at 100.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Performance Metrics:
    • Games Played: 128
    • Runs Per Game (R/G): Their R/G of 4.2 places them at the 25th spot.
    • Home Runs (HR): With 126 HRs, they’re positioned 27th.
    • Runs Batted In (RBI): Their 515 RBI gives them the 25th rank.
    • Stolen Bases (SB): At the 14th rank with 93 SBs.
    • Batting Average (BA): Securing 27th place with a BA of 0.235.
    • On-Base Percentage (OBP): 23rd with 0.314 OBP.
    • Slugging Percentage (SLG): A SLG of 0.388 gets them the 26th position.
    • On-Base Plus Slugging (OPS): With 0.702 OPS, they’re at 25th rank.
    • On-Base Plus Slugging Plus (OPS+): Scoring 90 and ranked 100th.

Pitching Match-up

  • Chicago Cubs: Kyle Hendricks, a right-hander, with 5 wins, 6 losses in 17 games started. His key metrics include an ERA of 3.83, K/9 of 5.84, BB/9 of 1.55, and a WHIP of 1.14.
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Mitch Keller, another right-hander, boasting 10 wins and 8 losses in 26 games. He holds an ERA of 4.22, a commendable K/9 of 10, BB/9 of 2.72, and a WHIP of 1.28.

Bullpen Rankings

  • Chicago Cubs: Positioned 17th out of 30 teams.
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Holding the 13th spot.

MLB Betting Model Predictions

Based on my betting model, here’s how the teams fare:

  • Chicago Cubs: Projected win percentage of 44.45%. US odds at 125 and Decimal odds at 2.25.
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: Projected win percentage of 55.54%. US odds at -125 and Decimal odds at 1.80.

Overall Projections:

  • Full Game Moneyline Value: Pittsburgh Pirates.
  • First Half Betting Value: Not Qualified bet.

Our Top Pick: Pittsburgh Pirates -125.


AI ChatGPT Prediction

Given the extensive data provided and comparing it with sportsbook betting odds, my independent AI prediction leans towards the Pittsburgh Pirates. Their current form, stats, and the home advantage give them a slight edge over the Cubs. Additionally, their odds offer potential value for bettors.


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