Cubs vs Padres Prediction

Our Cubs vs Padres prediction, based on meticulous MLB betting model analysis, indicates a closely contested battle. With the Cubs at a 46.05% win probability and the Padres slightly ahead at 53.94%, this game promises excitement and potential value for astute bettors. Dive into the details before placing your bet.


In the exciting world of MLB matchups, the forthcoming game on Wednesday, April 10, 2024, between the Chicago Cubs and the San Diego Padres stands out, offering intriguing betting opportunities. This Cubs vs Padres prediction delves deep into the game’s specifics, examining everything from starting pitchers and bullpen rankings to offensive matchups and betting odds. With Kyle Hendricks set to pitch for the Cubs against Dylan Cease for the Padres at Petco Park, we’ve analyzed the numbers to provide a comprehensive betting guide.

Game Information and Odds

  • Date: Wednesday, April 10, 2024
  • Location: Petco Park
  • Chicago Cubs Odds: 2.28 (Decimal), +128 (US)
  • San Diego Padres Odds: 1.75 (Decimal), -133 (US)

Please note, odds are subject to change; it’s always crucial to check for the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Kyle Hendricks (Chicago Cubs)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.17
  • SIERA: 4.66
  • xFIP: 4.46
  • K/9: 6.16
  • BB/9: 1.93
  • WHIP: 1.29
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.37

Dylan Cease (San Diego Padres)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.51
  • SIERA: 4.06
  • xFIP: 4.07
  • K/9: 10.89
  • BB/9: 3.98
  • WHIP: 1.39
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.89

Analyzing the starting pitchers, Dylan Cease’s strikeout rate (K/9) significantly surpasses that of Kyle Hendricks, indicating Cease’s ability to retire batters more effectively. However, Hendricks boasts better control, as evident from his lower BB/9 rate.

Cubs vs Padres Prediction

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

  • Chicago Cubs Bullpen Rank: 19th
  • San Diego Padres Bullpen Rank: 23rd

Despite the Cubs having a slightly better bullpen, both teams show room for improvement in this area.

  • Cubs Offensive Rank: 7th overall, 4th against left-handers, 9th against right-handers
  • Padres Offensive Rank: 12th overall, 8th against left-handers, 14th against right-handers

The Cubs exhibit a stronger offense, especially against left-handed pitching, which could be pivotal in this matchup.

Betting Model Insights

  • Chicago Cubs Probability: 46.05%, Projected US Odds: +117, Decimal Odds: 2.17
  • San Diego Padres Probability: 53.94%, Projected US Odds: -117, Decimal Odds: 1.85

According to our MLB betting model, there’s a slight edge for the San Diego Padres, but the odds suggest a closer contest than the market indicates.

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: Chicago Cubs Moneyline
  • Pitcher: Kyle Hendricks
  • Odds: +128
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 0.39
  • Confidence: Tiny value

Our model identifies a marginal value in backing the Cubs at +128, suggesting a tight game that could swing either way.

Conclusion: Cubs vs Padres Prediction

Our Cubs vs Padres prediction offers a snapshot of a potentially tight contest, shaped by pitching matchups, offensive capabilities, and bullpen strength. While the Padres are favorites, the analysis reveals value in backing the Cubs, especially considering Hendricks’ control and the team’s offensive efficiency.

Remember, betting involves risks, and it’s crucial to compare odds, consider model projections, and understand the value before placing bets. For those looking to dive deeper into MLB betting strategies, exploring sports betting courses and models can offer significant insights.

Stay updated with the latest MLB picks, and leverage every piece of information available to make informed betting decisions. Good luck!

Access my free content and join exclusive, private email circle for strategic advice, personal stories, and expert tips.

No spam. Betting value only.