Cubs vs Mets Prediction

In the upcoming Cubs vs Mets clash, our MLB betting model gives the Mets a 61.88% chance of winning with projected odds of -162. The Cubs trail with a 38.11% probability and odds of +162. Analyze this prediction carefully and place informed bets for potential good value!


On April 30, 2024, baseball fans will be treated to an intriguing matchup as the Chicago Cubs take on the New York Mets at Citi Field. This Cubs vs Mets prediction will delve deep into the pitching duel between Javier Assad of the Cubs and Sean Manaea of the Mets, along with a comprehensive analysis of both teams’ form and potential outcomes based on advanced MLB stats.

Game Overview: Cubs vs Mets

Key Details

  • Date and Time: Tuesday, April 30, 2024
  • Venue: Citi Field, New York
  • Betting Odds:
  • Chicago Cubs: +121 (Decimal odds: 2.21)
  • New York Mets: -132 (Decimal odds: 1.76)

Note: Odds are subject to change. Always check the latest MLB odds across different sportsbooks.

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Pitching Matchup Analysis

Javier Assad – Chicago Cubs

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 2.00
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 3.93
  • xFIP: 4.09
  • K/9: 8.67
  • BB/9: 3.00
  • WHIP: 1.00
  • GB/FB: 0.7
  • xERA: 2.89

Sean Manaea – New York Mets

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 3.33
  • Advanced Stats:
  • SIERA: 4.45
  • xFIP: 4.62
  • K/9: 9.99
  • BB/9: 5.18
  • WHIP: 1.44
  • GB/FB: 0.59
  • xERA: 5.09


Comparing the pitchers, Assad showcases superior control and efficiency, reflected in his lower ERA and xERA. Meanwhile, Manaea, despite a higher strikeout rate, struggles with command, as evident from his BB/9 and WHIP.

Team Comparisons

Bullpen Strength

  • Chicago Cubs: Ranked 23rd
  • New York Mets: Ranked 1st

Offensive Matchup

  • Chicago Cubs:
  • Overall Rank: 15
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 3
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 21
  • New York Mets:
  • Overall Rank: 13
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 14
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 9


The Mets’ bullpen shows significant superiority, potentially impacting the late-game scenarios. Offensively, while the Cubs excel against left-handed pitchers like Manaea, the Mets’ more balanced lineup could exploit Assad’s few weaknesses.

Cubs vs Mets Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probability Analysis

  • Chicago Cubs (Javier Assad):
  • Probability: 38.11%
  • Projected US Odds: +162
  • Decimal Odds: 2.62
  • New York Mets (Sean Manaea):
  • Probability: 61.88%
  • Projected US Odds: -162
  • Decimal Odds: 1.62

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: New York Mets (Sean Manaea)
  • Odds: -132
  • Kelly Criterion Value: 1.17
  • Confidence: Good value

Conclusion: Betting Tips and Insights for Cubs vs Mets Prediction

When considering this Cubs vs Mets prediction, it’s essential to evaluate all factors meticulously. The Mets, with their robust bullpen and balanced attack against right-handers, along with the favorable betting odds, present a strong case for a winning bet. However, always ensure to compare odds across sportsbooks, consider the latest team news, and use betting models to inform your decisions. For those looking to enhance their betting strategy, consider exploring detailed sports betting courses or models.

Remember, while this analysis aims to provide an in-depth preview, the final outcome can always differ. Never blindly follow any predictions, and always engage with sports betting as an informed and responsible bettor.

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