Cubs vs Marlins Prediction: Home Underdog Upsets MLB Odds

On April 28, 2023, at 6:40 PM ET, the Chicago Cubs will face the Miami Marlins at loanDepot park, Miami, FL. The Cubs, fresh off a victory against the San Diego Padres, hope to ride their momentum into a win against the Marlins. Meanwhile, the Marlins, currently holding a .500 record, will attempt to overcome their inconsistent performance thus far. Our Cubs vs Marlins prediction delves into critical factors such as pitching prowess, team form, and betting odds to give you the most informed MLB picks and insights for your baseball betting needs.

Game Details and Betting Odds

• Chicago Cubs (starting pitcher: RHP Marcus Stroman): -116
• Miami Marlins (starting pitcher: LHP Jesus Luzardo): +106
• Over/Under: 7.5 runs
• Last Meeting (Sep 21, 2022): Miami Marlins 3 vs Chicago Cubs 4

Pitching Matchup: Stroman vs Luzardo

Marcus Stroman (2-2, 2.17 ERA, 1.00 WHIP) takes the mound for the Cubs in his sixth start of the season. Despite a rocky performance against the Dodgers, Stroman has maintained an impressive 3.71 ERA and 1.06 WHIP across his last three games. The seasoned right-hander has a history of solid performances against the Marlins and will look to continue that trend at loanDepot park.

On the other side, Jesus Luzardo (2-1, 3.62 ERA, 1.39 WHIP) is set to start for the Marlins. Despite suffering a loss in his last outing against the Guardians, the young lefty has demonstrated an impressive strikeout rate and the ability to control the strike zone. Luzardo boasts a 2.89 ERA in three starts against the Cubs, suggesting he may fare well in this matchup.

Team Form: Cubs Riding High, Marlins Seeking Consistency

The Cubs (14-10) are coming off a morale-boosting series win against the Padres and will be looking to capitalize on that momentum against the Marlins. Last season, they claimed the season series 4-2, and have historically performed well on the road against the Marlins.

The Marlins (13-13), on the other hand, are looking for a consistent winning formula after a topsy-turvy start to the season. With a recent victory against the Atlanta Braves, they will be keen to build on that success and topple the Cubs.

Bullpen Performance: An Even Match

When it comes to bullpen performance, both teams are evenly matched, with the Cubs holding a 4.24 ERA and the Marlins not far behind at 4.56. This aspect of the game could be a deciding factor in an otherwise closely contested matchup.

Offensive Performance: A Tale of Two Teams

• Chicago Cubs: 5.7 runs per game, 0.276 batting average, 0.344 OBP. Their performance against left-handed pitchers is even more impressive, scoring 6.7 runs per game this season.
• Miami Marlins: 3.2 runs per game, 0.241 batting average, 0.297 OBP. At home, they score a mere 2.5 runs per game.

Injury Updates: Players from a Lineup Missing for this game

• Cubs lineup: CF Cody Bellinger is on paternity leave and will not be playing for the Cubs in this game.
• Marlins lineup: 3B Joey Wendle is on the 10-day injured list due to an oblique injury and is expected to return in early May.

MLB Betting Model Prediction

My baseball betting model (MLB prediction model) allocates a 54.06% chance for the Marlins and a 45.94% chance for the Cubs. Converting these probabilities into odds, my model indicates that the Marlins should be slight favorites, contrary to their current underdog status. Based on this MLB prediction model and the current market betting odds, a small value can be found on the Marlins at +106.

Betting Trends: Proceed with Caution

Please note that betting trends have limited predictive power and should be considered with caution. They can, however, provide interesting insights. For example, the Cubs are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a left-handed starter, and the Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings between these teams.

Recommended Picks and Best Bets

Both teams played on Thursday, so no rest advantage exists for either side. While the Marlins have struggled offensively this season, we should focus on the broader picture, where the differences between the two teams are smaller. The Cubs’ offense has been solid, and Stroman has pitched well overall, despite recent struggles. They will face Luzardo, a formidable pitcher with a winning record against the Cubs.

Considering all available information and my MLB prediction model, a close game with two strong pitchers and no rest advantage is expected. A low-scoring affair is likely, with my betting model projecting 7.55 runs in this game. With both teams having similar bullpens and Stroman averaging 5.8 innings per game and Luzardo 5.5 innings, the game could swing either way. Given these factors, the Miami Marlins as a small home underdog offer modest value.

Recommended Best MLB Bet for Today:

• MLB Pick: Miami Marlins +106

Maximize profits by shopping around for the best lines and leveraging any additional sportsbook benefits. Play responsibly, do your research, and remember that blindly following others is not advisable. Educate yourself about sports betting and utilize numbers in your betting strategy to minimize risks.

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