Cubs vs Mariners Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the Chicago Cubs a slight edge with a 51.92% probability of winning against the Seattle Mariners. Despite sportsbooks favoring the Mariners, our analysis suggests value in backing the Cubs at +111. Check the latest odds before placing bets for the best value.

Introduction

In today’s Cubs vs Mariners prediction for the matchup on April 12, 2024, we delve deep into the stats and performance of starting pitchers Jordan Wicks and Bryce Miller. As we analyze this face-off at T-Mobile Park, it’s essential to note the current sportsbook odds, showing the Chicago Cubs at a slight underdog with decimal odds of 2.11 and US odds of +111, while the Seattle Mariners are favored with odds of 1.81 and -123. Let’s break down the components that will influence this game’s outcome.

Pitcher Analysis: Jordan Wicks vs. Bryce Miller

Jordan Wicks – Chicago Cubs

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 4.36
  • SIERA: 4.52
  • xFIP: 4.12
  • K/9: 7.68
  • BB/9: 3.12
  • WHIP: 1.36
  • GB/FB Ratio: 1.38
  • xERA: Not specified

Jordan Wicks, a left-handed pitcher for the Cubs, shows a solid xFIP of 4.12, indicating a reasonable expectation of future performance. Despite a slightly elevated ERA and WHIP, his ground ball to fly ball ratio and strikeout rates are decent, which might help him navigate the Mariners’ lineup.

Bryce Miller – Seattle Mariners

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.21
  • SIERA: 4.09
  • xFIP: 4.23
  • K/9: 8.29
  • BB/9: 1.82
  • WHIP: 1.13
  • GB/FB Ratio: 0.77
  • xERA: Not specified

Bryce Miller presents a contrasting style with better control, as evidenced by his lower walk rate and WHIP. His ability to strike out opponents at a higher rate than Wicks might give him an edge, though his ground ball to fly ball ratio suggests he might be more prone to giving up home runs.

Team Comparisons

Bullpen Matchup

  • Chicago Cubs: Ranked 17th
  • Seattle Mariners: Ranked 16th

The bullpens are fairly evenly matched, with only a slight edge to the Mariners. This could play a critical role in the late innings of the game, especially if the starters exit early.

Offensive Matchup

  • Chicago Cubs: Overall rank 28th, but performs better against right-handed pitchers.
  • Seattle Mariners: Struggles overall with an offensive rank of 26th and especially against right-handers, placing 28th.

The Cubs might leverage their slightly better performance against right-handed pitchers like Miller, which could turn crucial in tight situations.

Cubs vs Mariners Prediction

MLB Betting Model Prediction

Our advanced MLB betting model shows a close match:

  • Chicago Cubs (Jordan Wicks): 51.92% probability, projected odds of -108 (1.93 decimal)
  • Seattle Mariners (Bryce Miller): 48.08% probability, projected odds of +108 (2.08 decimal)

Based on the model, the Cubs are slightly favored to win, contradicting the sportsbook odds.

Recommended MLB Pick

Moneyline: Chicago Cubs
Pitcher: Jordan Wicks
Odds: +111
Kelly Criterion Value: 0.86
Confidence: Solid value

Our model and analysis suggest value in backing the Chicago Cubs at +111. This recommendation offers a solid value bet based on the adjusted Kelly Criterion, indicating a robust confidence level.

Conclusion: Cubs vs Mariners Prediction

While preparing your Cubs vs Mariners prediction, always cross-verify the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks. Never blindly follow betting picks; instead, use them as guidance to inform your strategies. For those interested in enhancing their betting skills, consider exploring sports betting courses or tools like MLB betting models available online. Make informed decisions, and always engage in responsible betting.

Note

For final best MLB bets and first half picks, please check our “MLB Picks” page, or access our MLB betting model directly on Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

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