Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Today’s Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction is tightly contested, with our MLB betting model giving the Diamondbacks a slight edge at 53.08% probability. However, the value lies with the Cubs at +128, offering a solid betting opportunity according to our analysis. Always check current odds before placing bets.


In today’s in-depth analysis, we focus on the upcoming MLB game featuring the Chicago Cubs against the Arizona Diamondbacks, set to take place on Tuesday, April 16, 2024, at Chase Field. This Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction revolves around a pivotal pitching duel between Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs and Tommy Henry of the Diamondbacks. Let’s dive into the specifics of the matchup, including game odds, pitcher stats, team performances, and our final MLB betting model’s predictions.

Game Information and Sportsbook Odds

Team Overview

  • Away Team: Chicago Cubs
  • Odds: 2.28 Decimal; +128 US
  • Home Team: Arizona Diamondbacks
  • Odds: 1.72 Decimal; -139 US

Note: Odds can fluctuate, so it’s essential to check for the best MLB odds across different sportsbooks before placing any bets.

Starting Pitchers Matchup

Kyle Hendricks (Chicago Cubs)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 4.45
  • Advanced Stats: SIERA: 4.64, xFIP: 4.42, K/9: 6.07, BB/9: 1.86, WHIP: 1.3, GB/FB Ratio: 1.42

Tommy Henry (Arizona Diamondbacks)

  • Hand: Left
  • ERA: 4.43
  • Advanced Stats: SIERA: 5.11, xFIP: 5.21, K/9: 6.99, BB/9: 3.72, WHIP: 1.41, GB/FB Ratio: 0.93

Analysis of Pitching and Team Strength

Pitching Comparison

When comparing the starting pitchers, Kyle Hendricks shows a lower ERA and a more favorable SIERA and xFIP compared to Tommy Henry, indicating better control and efficiency. Hendricks’ lower walk rate (BB/9) and higher ground ball to fly ball ratio also suggest he could be more effective in suppressing runs against the aggressive Diamondbacks lineup.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchup

  • Bullpen Rankings:
  • Chicago Cubs: 18th
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: 14th
  • Offensive Comparison:
  • Chicago Cubs: Overall Rank: 16, vs. Left Handed Pitchers: 10, vs. Right Handed Pitchers: 14
  • Arizona Diamondbacks: Overall Rank: 12, vs. Left Handed Pitchers: 7, vs. Right Handed Pitchers: 18

The Diamondbacks hold a slight edge in bullpen strength and overall offensive capabilities, especially against left-handed pitchers, which could challenge Hendricks. However, the Cubs perform better against lefties, potentially exploiting Henry’s weaknesses.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

MLB Betting Model Analysis

Projected Outcomes

  • Chicago Cubs (Kyle Hendricks): 46.91% probability, Projected US Odds: +113, Decimal: 2.13
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Tommy Henry): 53.08% probability, Projected US Odds: -113, Decimal: 1.88

Recommended MLB Pick

Our model identifies a solid value in backing the Chicago Cubs at +128. The adjusted Kelly Criterion suggests a 0.54 value, indicating a strong bet with considerable confidence.

Conclusion: Making Your Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

When making your Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction, consider the detailed analysis and model projections provided here. While both teams present strengths and weaknesses, the pitching matchup slightly tilts in favor of the Cubs, offering a valuable betting opportunity. Remember to shop around for the best odds and consider all factors before placing your bet. For those interested in deeper sports betting insights, explore our sports betting courses and access our MLB betting model on Google Sheets to develop your betting strategies.

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