Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

Today’s Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction highlights a 61.38% probability favoring the Diamondbacks, with projected odds at -159. The MLB betting model suggests good value on Arizona, especially considering their strong bullpen and effectiveness against left-handed pitchers. A strategic pick for today’s MLB matchup.


In today’s Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction, we delve into an intriguing MLB showdown set for April 17, 2024, at Chase Field. The Chicago Cubs, led by left-handed pitcher Jordan Wicks, face off against the Arizona Diamondbacks with right-hander Brandon Pfaadt on the mound. Given the current odds with the Cubs at a 2.02 decimal (or +102 US odds) and the Diamondbacks favored at 1.83 (-120 US odds), this game promises to be a tight contest.

Game Overview

Starting Pitchers’ Analysis

Jordan Wicks – Chicago Cubs

  • ERA: 4.75
  • SIERA: 4.55
  • xFIP: 4.2
  • Strikeouts per Nine (K/9): 8.18
  • Walks per Nine (BB/9): 3.61
  • WHIP: 1.44
  • Ground Ball to Fly Ball Ratio (GB/FB): 1.38

Brandon Pfaadt – Arizona Diamondbacks

  • ERA: 5.82
  • SIERA: 4.13
  • xFIP: 4.26
  • K/9: 9.03
  • BB/9: 2.36
  • WHIP: 1.41
  • GB/FB: 0.8

Comparative Analysis of Pitchers

Jordan Wicks shows potential in control but struggles with a higher ERA and WHIP compared to his counterpart. Brandon Pfaadt, despite a higher ERA, exhibits stronger strikeout abilities and better control over walks, which could be crucial in high-pressure innings.

Team Comparisons

Bullpen Matchup

  • Chicago Cubs Rank: 20th
  • Arizona Diamondbacks Rank: 16th

The Diamondbacks’ bullpen holds a slight edge over the Cubs, which might be decisive in late-game scenarios.

Offensive Matchup

  • Chicago Cubs Overall Rank: 20th
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 23rd
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 17th
  • Arizona Diamondbacks Overall Rank: 16th
  • Vs. Left-Handed Pitchers: 8th
  • Vs. Right-Handed Pitchers: 24th

The Diamondbacks perform notably better against left-handers, which could advantage them against Wicks. However, their struggle against right-handers may not impact this game.

Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probabilities and Predicted Odds

  • Chicago Cubs (Jordan Wicks): 38.62%, Projected US odds: +159, Decimal odds: 2.59
  • Arizona Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt): 61.38%, Projected US odds: -159, Decimal odds: 1.63

Recommended MLB Pick

Pick: Arizona Diamondbacks to win
Pitcher: Brandon Pfaadt
Odds: -120
Confidence: Good value based on the Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated value of 1.48

Conclusion: Cubs vs Diamondbacks Prediction

In summary, today’s Cubs vs Diamondbacks prediction leans towards the Arizona Diamondbacks as the favored team. Their superior bullpen performance and strong offensive against left-handers suggest they might have the upper hand in this matchup. However, as with any betting scenario, it’s crucial to continuously check for the best MLB odds and consider all factors before placing a bet. For those interested in developing their betting strategies, consider exploring detailed sports betting courses and models to enhance your understanding and skills. Remember, use predictions as a guide but never rely solely on them; always make informed decisions in your sports betting endeavors.

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