Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction

Our MLB betting model for the Cardinals vs Pirates prediction on July 2, 2024, gives the St. Louis Cardinals a slight edge with a 50.78% win probability. With Kyle Gibson on the mound, our model suggests a small value in betting on the Cardinals at odds of 105.


Welcome to our detailed Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction for the matchup on Tuesday, July 2, 2024. This game pits the St. Louis Cardinals against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park, featuring starting pitchers Kyle Gibson for the Cardinals and Mitch Keller for the Pirates. This prediction aims to provide an in-depth analysis based on advanced stats, team matchups, and betting model probabilities to help you make informed betting decisions.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Tuesday, July 2, 2024
  • Ballpark: PNC Park
  • Away Team: St. Louis Cardinals
  • Home Team: Pittsburgh Pirates
TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
St. Louis Cardinals2.05105
Pittsburgh Pirates1.80-125

Note: Odds can change, so always check for the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Analysis

Kyle Gibson (St. Louis Cardinals)

Kyle Gibson, the right-handed pitcher for the St. Louis Cardinals, enters this game with a solid ERA of 3.7. Here’s a breakdown of his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 4.3
  • xFIP: 4.05
  • K/9: 7.9
  • BB/9: 3.7
  • WHIP: 1.24
  • GB/FB: 1.49
  • xERA: 4.84

Gibson’s advanced metrics indicate a reliable, if not elite, performance. His SIERA and xFIP suggest he may have been slightly fortunate with his ERA, but his WHIP and strikeout rates are respectable, making him a steady presence on the mound.

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Mitch Keller (Pittsburgh Pirates)

Mitch Keller, also a right-handed pitcher, will take the mound for the Pittsburgh Pirates with an ERA of 3.2. Here are his advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 3.95
  • xFIP: 3.97
  • K/9: 8.33
  • BB/9: 2.47
  • WHIP: 1.22
  • GB/FB: 1.07
  • xERA: 3.81

Keller’s advanced stats reflect his strong performance this season. His lower SIERA and xFIP compared to his ERA suggest he’s pitching effectively, supported by a good strikeout rate and a low walk rate, making him a formidable opponent.

Bullpen Matchup Analysis

When analyzing the bullpens, it’s clear that both teams have room for improvement, but the Cardinals have a slight edge.

  • St. Louis Cardinals Bullpen Rank: 14
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen Rank: 27

The Cardinals’ bullpen is middle-of-the-pack but more reliable than the Pirates’, who struggle significantly in late-game situations.

Offensive Matchup Analysis

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Overall Rank: 20
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 28
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 12

The Cardinals have a decent offense, particularly against right-handed pitchers, ranking 12th in the league. This bodes well for their matchup against Keller, a righty.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Overall Rank: 28
  • Rank vs Left-Handed Pitchers: 26
  • Rank vs Right-Handed Pitchers: 27

The Pirates’ offense has struggled this season, ranking near the bottom of the league overall and specifically against right-handed pitchers. This will be a significant challenge against Gibson.

Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the following probabilities for the game:

  • St. Louis Cardinals (Kyle Gibson): 50.78%
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Mitch Keller): 49.22%

Based on these probabilities, the model projects the following odds:

  • MLB Model Projected US Odds for Cardinals: -103
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds for Cardinals: 1.97
  • MLB Model Projected US Odds for Pirates: 103
  • MLB Model Projected Decimal Odds for Pirates: 2.03

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

Considering the analysis and the betting model’s probabilities, our recommended MLB pick is:

  • Side: St. Louis Cardinals
  • Pitcher: Kyle Gibson
  • Odds: 105
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.39 (tiny value)
  • Confidence: Moderate

Our betting model indicates a slight value on the Cardinals, with Kyle Gibson on the mound.

Conclusion for Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction

In conclusion, our Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction suggests a competitive game with a slight edge for the St. Louis Cardinals based on advanced pitching metrics, bullpen reliability, and offensive capabilities. Use this prediction as a guide, but always remember to shop for the best MLB Baseball Betting Odds and take advantage of any available bonuses and promotions during the MLB betting season. To learn how to bet like a pro using analytical sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses and MLB picks page.

Remember, betting should be done responsibly, and it’s essential to consider various factors and stay informed before placing any bets. Our analysis provides a solid foundation for making an informed decision on this exciting matchup.

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