Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction July 4

Our MLB betting model gives the St. Louis Cardinals a 55.64% chance of winning against the Pittsburgh Pirates on July 4, 2024. With Andre Pallante pitching, the Cardinals are favored over Martin Perez and the Pirates. Bet confidently with our Cardinals vs Pirates prediction.


As we gear up for the Cardinals vs Pirates game on Thursday, July 4, 2024, baseball enthusiasts and bettors alike are eagerly analyzing the matchup between Andre Pallante and Martin Perez. This Cardinals vs Pirates prediction will delve into the advanced stats, bullpen performance, offensive capabilities, and ultimately provide a recommended pick based on our MLB betting model.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Thursday, July 4, 2024
  • Ballpark: PNC Park
  • Away Team: St. Louis Cardinals
  • Home Team: Pittsburgh Pirates


  • St. Louis Cardinals: 1.80 (Decimal), -125 (US)
  • Pittsburgh Pirates: 2.05 (Decimal), 105 (US)

Please note that odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers: Andre Pallante vs Martin Perez

Andre Pallante (St. Louis Cardinals)

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.86
  • SIERA: 4.22
  • xFIP: 4.01
  • K/9: 8.04
  • BB/9: 4.18
  • WHIP: 1.46
  • GB/FB: 2.3

Andre Pallante has shown a solid performance this season with a respectable ERA of 3.86. His SIERA and xFIP suggest that his current ERA is a fair reflection of his pitching capabilities. With a K/9 of 8.04, Pallante has a decent strikeout rate, though his BB/9 of 4.18 indicates a tendency to allow walks. His WHIP of 1.46 and groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB) of 2.3 highlight his ability to keep the ball on the ground, which can be advantageous in preventing home runs.

Martin Perez (Pittsburgh Pirates)

  • Hand: Left Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.28
  • SIERA: 4.51
  • xFIP: 4.4
  • K/9: 7.34
  • BB/9: 3.08
  • WHIP: 1.61
  • GB/FB: 1.12
  • xERA: 6.05

Martin Perez, on the other hand, has struggled with an ERA of 5.28. His SIERA and xFIP are slightly better but still indicate that he has been underperforming. With a K/9 of 7.34 and a BB/9 of 3.08, Perez’s control has been a bit better than Pallante’s, but his WHIP of 1.61 and GB/FB ratio of 1.12 show a higher susceptibility to allowing baserunners and home runs. His xERA of 6.05 suggests that he may continue to face challenges on the mound.

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Bullpen Matchup

  • St. Louis Cardinals Bullpen Rank: 13
  • Pittsburgh Pirates Bullpen Rank: 27

The Cardinals’ bullpen ranks significantly higher than the Pirates’, indicating better overall performance and reliability. This edge in bullpen strength could play a crucial role in the latter innings of the game.

Offensive Matchup

St. Louis Cardinals

  • Overall Rank: 16
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 28
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 11

The Cardinals have an overall offensive rank of 16, but they struggle significantly against left-handed pitchers, ranking 28th. However, they perform much better against right-handed pitchers, ranking 11th, which might not be as relevant in this matchup given Perez’s left-handed pitching.

Pittsburgh Pirates

  • Overall Rank: 28
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 26
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 28

The Pirates’ offense is among the weakest in the league, with an overall rank of 28. They also rank poorly against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers, indicating a struggling offensive lineup that may find it difficult to score runs against Pallante and the Cardinals’ bullpen.

Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction

MLB Betting Model Probability for Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction

  • St. Louis Cardinals (Andre Pallante): 55.64% probability, -125 projected US odds, 1.80 projected decimal odds
  • Pittsburgh Pirates (Martin Perez): 44.36% probability, 125 projected US odds, 2.25 projected decimal odds

Our MLB betting model gives the Cardinals a 55.64% chance of winning, making them the favored team in this matchup. The Pirates have a 44.36% chance, which reflects their underdog status.

Recommended MLB Pick Based on Our MLB Betting Model Analysis

  • Recommended Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
  • Pitcher: Andre Pallante
  • Odds: -125
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.02
  • Confidence: Tiny Value

Based on our analysis, the recommended MLB pick is the St. Louis Cardinals with Andre Pallante on the mound. While the value is tiny according to the Adjusted Kelly Criterion, the Cardinals are still the favored side.

Conclusion for Cardinals vs Pirates Prediction

In summary, our Cardinals vs Pirates prediction favors the St. Louis Cardinals due to their stronger bullpen, better overall offensive capabilities, and the pitching matchup. Andre Pallante’s performance, combined with the Cardinals’ bullpen strength, gives them an edge over Martin Perez and the struggling Pirates offense. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions. If you want to learn how to bet like a pro, analytically with sports betting models, check out our sports betting courses.

Use this Cardinals vs Pirates prediction as a guide, and remember to never blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Good luck with your bets, and enjoy the game!

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