Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction

For the Cardinals vs Nationals prediction on July 5, 2024, our MLB betting model gives the Cardinals a 55.65% win probability and the Nationals 44.35%. With sportsbook odds offering +160 for the Nationals, there’s solid value in betting on the underdog despite the pitching mismatch. Bet wisely!


In this article, we delve into the Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction for Friday, July 5, 2024, highlighting the matchup between starting pitchers Sonny Gray and Patrick Corbin. This comprehensive analysis will cover the pitching showdown, bullpen comparisons, offensive matchups, and provide betting recommendations based on our MLB betting model. Whether you’re a seasoned bettor or new to baseball betting, this detailed prediction will help guide your wagering decisions for the Cardinals vs Nationals game.

Game Information & Sportsbook Odds

  • Date: Friday, July 5, 2024
  • Away Team: St. Louis Cardinals
  • Home Team: Washington Nationals
  • Ballpark: Nationals Park
TeamDecimal OddsUS Odds
St. Louis Cardinals1.57-175
Washington Nationals2.60160

Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers Overview

St. Louis Cardinals: Sonny Gray

  • Handedness: Right-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 2.98
  • SIERA: 2.9
  • xFIP: 2.78
  • K/9: 11.19
  • BB/9: 2.36
  • WHIP: 0.99
  • GB/FB: 1.26
  • xERA: 3.14

Sonny Gray has been nothing short of stellar this season. With an impressive ERA of 2.98, Gray’s advanced metrics like a 2.9 SIERA and 2.78 xFIP underscore his dominance on the mound. His strikeout rate (K/9) of 11.19 highlights his ability to overpower hitters, and a WHIP of 0.99 indicates his exceptional control and command. Gray’s ground ball to fly ball ratio (GB/FB) of 1.26 shows his effectiveness in inducing grounders, which is crucial in keeping the ball in the park.

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Washington Nationals: Patrick Corbin

  • Handedness: Left-Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 5.49
  • SIERA: 4.76
  • xFIP: 4.45
  • K/9: 6.16
  • BB/9: 3.13
  • WHIP: 1.53
  • GB/FB: 1.35
  • xERA: 6.48

Patrick Corbin has had a challenging season with an ERA of 5.49. His advanced stats such as a 4.76 SIERA and 4.45 xFIP suggest some underlying struggles. Corbin’s strikeout rate of 6.16 K/9 is considerably lower than Gray’s, and his WHIP of 1.53 reflects his struggles with command and giving up hits. His GB/FB ratio of 1.35 is decent but not enough to offset his overall performance issues.

Bullpen Matchup

When it comes to the bullpen, the Cardinals hold a slight edge over the Nationals. The Cardinals’ bullpen ranks 13th in the league, showcasing a reliable group of relievers who can maintain leads and close out games effectively. On the other hand, the Nationals’ bullpen is ranked 18th, indicating inconsistency and vulnerability in high-leverage situations.

Offensive Matchup

Offensively, both teams have their strengths and weaknesses. The Cardinals are ranked 17th overall, with a notable disparity in their performance against different types of pitchers. They struggle significantly against left-handed pitchers, ranking 29th, but fare much better against right-handed pitchers, ranking 11th. This could pose a challenge against Corbin, who is left-handed, despite his struggles this season.

The Nationals’ offense ranks 21st overall and maintains consistent performance regardless of the pitcher’s handedness, ranking 21st against both left-handed and right-handed pitchers. This consistency could play a crucial role in their ability to generate runs against Gray and the Cardinals’ bullpen.

Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction

Betting Model Analysis and Prediction

Our MLB betting model gives the St. Louis Cardinals a 55.65% probability of winning, which translates to projected odds of -125 (1.80 in decimal odds). Conversely, the Washington Nationals have a 44.35% probability, with projected odds of 125 (2.25 in decimal odds).

Given the current sportsbook odds, the value lies with the Washington Nationals, who are listed at +160. According to the Adjusted Kelly Criterion, the calculated value is 0.96, indicating solid value on a Nationals bet.

Recommended MLB Pick

Side: Washington Nationals
Pitcher: Patrick Corbin
Odds: 160
Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.96
Confidence: Solid Value

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the Washington Nationals offer a solid value pick for this game. While Sonny Gray is undoubtedly the superior pitcher, the disparity in current sportsbook odds and the Nationals’ offensive consistency make them an intriguing underdog choice.

Conclusion: Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction

In conclusion, the Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction leans towards finding value in betting on the Washington Nationals. Despite the apparent pitching mismatch, the betting value derived from our model suggests taking a calculated risk on the Nationals at +160 odds. Remember to use this prediction as a guide and always shop for the best MLB betting odds. For more in-depth betting strategies and to learn how to create your own projections, consider exploring our sports betting courses and resources. Happy betting!

By carefully considering all aspects of this matchup, including pitching, bullpen strength, and offensive capabilities, we’ve provided a comprehensive and insightful analysis for the Cardinals vs Nationals game. Whether you agree with our prediction or not, always remember to bet responsibly and make informed decisions.

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