Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction July 6

For the Cardinals vs Nationals prediction, our MLB betting model gives the Nationals a 58.06% win probability against the Cardinals’ 41.94%. With MacKenzie Gore’s strong stats, the model projects solid value for a Nationals win at -125 odds. Bet smartly and always check the latest odds.


As the St Louis Cardinals face off against the Washington Nationals on Saturday, July 6, 2024, fans and bettors alike are keenly interested in the Cardinals vs Nationals prediction. With Lance Lynn taking the mound for the Cardinals and MacKenzie Gore pitching for the Nationals, this matchup promises to be a thrilling contest. Our comprehensive analysis and betting model will provide you with the best insights and probabilities to make informed betting decisions. Whether you’re looking at advanced pitching stats or bullpen matchups, this Cardinals vs Nationals prediction covers all the bases.

Game Info & Sportsbook Odds

Away Team: St Louis Cardinals

Home Team: Washington Nationals

Ballpark: Nationals Park

Decimal Odds:

  • St Louis Cardinals: 2.05
  • Washington Nationals: 1.80

US Odds:

  • St Louis Cardinals: 105
  • Washington Nationals: -125

Note: Odds can change. Always check the best MLB odds on different sportsbooks.

Starting Pitchers

St Louis Cardinals: Lance Lynn

  • Hand: Right Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.59

Washington Nationals: MacKenzie Gore

  • Hand: Left Handed Pitcher
  • ERA: 3.47
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Pitcher Comparison

Analyzing the starting pitchers for the Cardinals vs Nationals prediction:

Lance Lynn (St Louis Cardinals)

Lance Lynn, the right-handed pitcher for the Cardinals, brings experience and solid performance into this game. His advanced stats for the season include:

  • SIERA: 4.11
  • xFIP: 4.02
  • K/9: 8.62
  • BB/9: 3.18
  • WHIP: 1.30
  • GB/FB: 1.06
  • xERA: 4.44

Lynn’s ability to strike out batters (8.62 K/9) and manage a reasonable walk rate (3.18 BB/9) contributes to his stability on the mound. However, his SIERA and xERA suggest he might be slightly overperforming his peripherals.

MacKenzie Gore (Washington Nationals)

MacKenzie Gore, the left-handed pitcher for the Nationals, showcases impressive advanced stats:

  • SIERA: 3.47
  • xFIP: 3.49
  • K/9: 10.62
  • BB/9: 2.88
  • WHIP: 1.37
  • GB/FB: 0.91
  • xERA: 3.76

Gore’s strikeout rate (10.62 K/9) is notably higher than Lynn’s, indicating his dominance on the mound. His walk rate (2.88 BB/9) is slightly better, and his overall metrics point to strong underlying performance.

Bullpen Matchup

  • St Louis Cardinals: Ranked 13th
  • Washington Nationals: Ranked 17th

The Cardinals have a slight edge in bullpen rankings, which could play a crucial role in the later innings of the game.

Offensive (Hitting) Matchup

St Louis Cardinals

  • Overall Rank: 17
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 29
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 10

Washington Nationals

  • Overall Rank: 21
  • Rank vs Left Handed Pitchers: 18
  • Rank vs Right Handed Pitchers: 20

The Cardinals struggle significantly against left-handed pitchers, ranking 29th, which could be a decisive factor considering MacKenzie Gore’s left-handed dominance. However, they are much stronger against right-handed pitchers, which bodes well if they face the Nationals’ bullpen.

Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction

Betting Model Probability for Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction

Our baseball betting model provides the following probabilities:

  • St Louis Cardinals (Lance Lynn): 41.94%
  • Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore): 58.06%

MLB Model Projected Odds

  • St Louis Cardinals (Lance Lynn): +138 (Decimal: 2.38)
  • Washington Nationals (MacKenzie Gore): -138 (Decimal: 1.72)

Recommended MLB Pick

Based on our MLB betting model analysis, the recommended pick for this game is:

  • Side: Washington Nationals
  • Pitcher: MacKenzie Gore
  • Odds: -125
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: 0.56
  • Confidence: Solid value

Note: For final best MLB bets and first-half picks, please check the “MLB Picks” page or get my MLB betting model in Google Sheets to learn how to calculate odds and make your own baseball betting projections.

Conclusion for Cardinals vs Nationals Prediction

Using this Cardinals vs Nationals prediction can help guide your betting decisions, but it’s crucial never to blindly follow anyone’s sports picks. Always shop for the best MLB baseball betting odds and take advantage of bonuses and promotions during the baseball betting season. For those looking to bet like a pro analytically, using sports betting models can significantly enhance your approach. Check out my sports betting courses to learn more.

In summary, the Nationals, with MacKenzie Gore on the mound, present a solid value based on our betting model. His superior strikeout ability and consistent performance, combined with the Cardinals’ struggles against left-handed pitching, make this a compelling pick for Saturday, July 6, 2024. Remember to monitor the latest odds and enjoy the game!

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