Cardinals vs Mets Prediction April 27

In our latest Cardinals vs Mets prediction, the MLB betting model gives the St. Louis Cardinals a 55.21% chance to win with Sonny Gray pitching. Our model projects -123 odds for the Cardinals, suggesting a slight edge over the Mets in this matchup. Always verify odds before betting.


In this Cardinals vs Mets prediction, we’re set for an intriguing showdown at Citi Field this Saturday, April 27, 2024. With the St. Louis Cardinals taking on the New York Mets, all eyes will be on the pitching duel between Sonny Gray and Adrian Houser. Let’s dive deep into the stats, odds, and matchups to inform your MLB betting strategy.

Game Details

  • Date: Saturday, April 27, 2024
  • Location: Citi Field, New York
  • Odds: Cardinals -125, Mets +105
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Pitching Analysis: Sonny Gray vs Adrian Houser

Sonny Gray (St. Louis Cardinals)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 1.04
  • SIERA: 1.85
  • xFIP: 1.77
  • K/9: 11.94
  • BB/9: 0.52
  • WHIP: 0.87
  • GB/FB: 1.29
  • xERA: 1.63

Adrian Houser (New York Mets)

  • Hand: Right
  • ERA: 7.45
  • SIERA: 6.03
  • xFIP: 5.95
  • K/9: 5.59
  • BB/9: 6.52
  • WHIP: 1.76
  • GB/FB: 1.32
  • xERA: 5.68

Pitchers’ Matchup Analysis

The stats highlight a stark contrast between the two starters. Sonny Gray is off to a stellar start this season, boasting an exceptionally low ERA and WHIP, backed by impressive strikeout rates. Conversely, Adrian Houser has struggled, indicated by his high ERA and poor control, which could be a critical factor in today’s game.

Bullpen and Offensive Matchups

Bullpen Strength

  • St. Louis Cardinals Rank: 2
  • New York Mets Rank: 1

Despite Sonny Gray’s dominance, the Mets hold a slight edge in bullpen strength, potentially balancing the scales if the game extends beyond the starters.

Offensive Comparison

  • Cardinals Overall Rank: 22
  • Cardinals vs RHP: 17
  • Mets Overall Rank: 11
  • Mets vs RHP: 10

Offensively, the Mets have been more productive, especially against right-handed pitchers, which could come into play against Gray.

Cardinals vs Mets Prediction

MLB Betting Model Insights

Probabilities and Projected Odds

  • St. Louis Cardinals (Sonny Gray): 55.21%, Projected Odds: -123
  • New York Mets (Adrian Houser): 44.78%, Projected Odds: 123

The betting model gives the Cardinals a slight advantage primarily due to Sonny Gray’s performance metrics.

Recommended MLB Pick

  • Pick: St. Louis Cardinals
  • Pitcher: Sonny Gray
  • Odds: -125
  • Adjusted Kelly Criterion Calculated Value: -0.08
  • Confidence: No value, just bold opinion

Conclusion: Cardinals vs Mets Prediction

When considering your Cardinals vs Mets prediction, it’s essential to analyze not just the odds but the underpinning statistics and matchup dynamics. While our model favors the Cardinals slightly due to Sonny Gray’s commanding start, remember to shop for the best MLB odds and consider all aspects before placing your bet. For further insights and to learn how to make your own predictions using our betting models, visit our MLB Picks page or check out our sports betting courses.

Always gamble responsibly, and remember, no pick is a guaranteed win. Happy betting!

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